Okay...JaMarcus Russell

All of this recent criticism of JaMarcus Russell and his labeling as a pre-bust or a bust waiting to happen has spurred me to take a look at some recent QBs with or around as many starts as him, and also inspired me to take a level headed look at what kind of QB we have starting for the Raiders.  In my findings, I've seen exactly what I was suspecting at the outset: it's too soon to judge.

The first thing that I would like to say is that there are three other quarterbacks that I'm going to use for this mini-article/eye opener, and the first one that I'm going to semi-profile is Matt Leinart.  He's an example of what I don't want to happen with JaMarcus.  He was also from a BCS powerhouse, highly touted coming into the league, and he went to a place where he was the unquestioned starter from day 1, just like JaMarcus.  The difference between the two?  Wide receiver play, because upon entry, Matt Leinart had Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin on his team.  He started off with two legit number 1 options at the receiver position and still fumbled his job away.  His situation parallels Russell's in a way that I hope never ends up happening here, as they also signed a veteran quarterback who ended up usurping the job from the younger quarterback.  We would be doing ourselves a disservice by doing that, because looking at JaMarcus' numbers over his 16 games starting and Leinart over his 16 as well...and JaMarcus has done more with less.

Statistically, Russell has more touchdowns than Leinart, has a higher percentage of touchdowns per pass attempt, marginally less yards per completion, and all of this playing with statistically inferior wide receivers.  Their adjusted net yards per attempt are very similar, within 0.2 yards of each other again (and I can't stress this enough) throwing to a very different set of wide receivers in terms of skills.

Next up, there are two very young quarterbacks that are seen as "getting it" while Russell is seen as struggling.  These two names get thrown out as "better" quarterbacks than JaMarcus, yet in their one season as starters, have put up similar numbers over the same amount of games.  Forget about Matt Leinart as a career progression (hopefully that scared off the Garcia as starter folks), look at these quarterbacks and see that with some help from his team, JaMarcus could easily have been in the same position as these teams.

First I'd like to look at Matt Ryan, because his team is easily one that could be eerily similar to ours, ideally we'd be better than their team defensively, but they are a rush heavy offense with good receiving options as well.  They have a Pro Bowl wideout in Roddy White, a more than solid running back in Michael Turner (who had a breakout year last year), another good option on the ground with Jerious Norwood, and in their offense, they ran the ball almost twice as much as they passed it.  This is the perfect offense to put a rookie quarterback in.  Their offensive line play has been pretty good since the days of the Michael Vick scramble-a-thon, putting Ryan on his back only 17 times all season.  Matt Ryan has had the benefit of having a decent structure around him, where JaMarcus has had questionable receivers, questionable offensive line play, and spotty (but decent) production by his running backs.  The only player that has been consistent in the 16 games Russell has started has been Zach Miller, something that Matt Ryan has not had to deal with.

Joe Flacco is another one of the names that is thrown out there, and coincidentally they are both "true" rookies, in that last year was their first year starting for their team.  The Baltimore Ravens are known for their intense defense (no category less than a top 5 last year) and having a decent to middling offense.  Last year changed that a little, because Flacco is no Tony Banks taking snaps, and they also had a change of pace quarterback in Troy Smith who is also a decent quarterback.  The Ravens also have a three-headed monster at the running back position, with Le'Ron McClain, Ray Rice, and Willis McGahee, something that allowed them to take a lot of pressure off of Flacco, along with the defense doing work as usual.  JaMarcus does not have that kind of defense backing him up, the Ravens were the number one defense in terms of points allowed last year, often times putting the number of points needed to win at a very managable number.  Can't say as much for the Raiders.

So in taking a look at Russell when compared to the two golden rookies from last year, his stats are similar with worse receivers, no breakout seasons from running backs/wide recevers (Matt Ryan with Michael Turner/Roddy White, Joe Flacco with Le'Ron McClain), better offensive line play (of the two, only Flacco was sacked more than Russell with Ryan hitting the ground about half as many times), and with a much better defense (Baltimore had a top 5 defense, and Atlanta had an underrated defense coming in with a top 10 defense).  In light of this evidence I have no choice but to leave the judgment of JaMarcus until the Oakland Raiders can develop a better team surrounding him, because right now, he's had to deal with an inconsistent offensive line (penalties especially are a problem, as well as sacks), putrid wide receiver output (only Higgins was decent, and Chaz came on late), and running backs that struggled through injury.

And most of all for the detractors...it's only May in JaMarcus second season as a starter.  We can breathe easily for a while, these are brand new receivers (Heyward-Bey and Murphy at least), we're coming off a long layoff, and passing hardly comes together in one camp.  This is not Madden where you can start up the franchise and loft the ball over Nnamdi's hands in your first practice of the season.  Timing, velocity, and touch take time to develop with receivers, and we've got plenty of that before the season starts, so take a deep breath, and let JaMarcus develop that before we all start piling on.

2008 for reference (comp/att, yards, completion %, TD, INT, Rating):

Russell 234 434 2796 53.9 15 12 73.9
Flacco 257 428 2971 60 14 12 80.3
Ryan 265 434 3440 61.1 16 11 87.7