Things That Make You Go Hmm
by Rich Langford on Oct 28, 2010 10:47 PM PDT
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PrintIn the preview thread LiveAdam brought up a great point about the Seahawk Run Defense and just measuring statistics in general. Here is what he said:
Without looking at the overall context, the Seahawks’ run defense looks excellent, posting the statistics noontide provided above. Yet, this unit has faced the 2nd fewest rushing attempts (140) in the league. At the same time, the Seahawks’ pass defense ranks 29th overall, facing the 2nd most attempts per game (41) and giving up an average 6.9 yards per attempt (18th in the league).
...Are teams simply abandoning the run against Seattle because they know they will have more success through the air? Could it be that Seattle’s run defense isn’t as good as the stats suggest, only now to be even further weakened by the loss of DT Brandon Mebane?
I don’t have answers to these questions, they are simply points of discussion as we move towards a pivotal game on Sunday.
The discussion progressed, check it out if you haven't seen it, but a quick overview is: LiveAdam posted their rushing numbers and pointed out the highest rated rushing attack they have faced is 13th. A Seahawk fan then said the reason for the low ranking is that 1/6th of those numbers were against the Hawks. Well this got me thinking. Most of those opponents, 1/6th of those numbers were also against the Raiders.
Take a look at the common opponents rushing numbers against each team.
Raiders Seahawks
Rams 21-75 3.6 ypc Rams 28-88 3.1 ypc
Cardinals 26-119 4.6 ypc Cardinals 20-113 5.7 ypc
Chargers 26-91 3.5 ypc Chargers 21-89 4.2 ypc
49ers 31-158 5.1 ypc 49ers 19-49 2.6 ypc
Broncos 17-75 4.4 ypc Broncos 38-65 1.7 ypc
Total
Raiders 121-518 4.3 ypc Seahawks 126-404 3.2 ypc
Take away Frank Gore's 64 yard run and you have a closer number of 3.8 ypc to 3.2 ypc.
I hate when teams or people say, "If you take away that long run we held them to (insert excuse number here)."
To which I say, "Yeah that's great. How 'bout instead of taking it away in our imagination you just stop them from doing it in reality!"
I think for the purposes of this comparison it is fair though. After all, we are not trying to judge the Raiders run D, we are trying to gage the Hawks and it is only one carry out of 121. If you don't want to do that, just look at it game by game. There are a lot more similarities than differences. Yet the common perception is that the Seahawks run D is stellar and the Raiders is disgusting.
There are countless varying factors that go into these numbers. Such as injuries, game situations, weather, any given Sunday etc...but looking at those factors, if anything, it weighs towards the fact that the Raiders have had a harder test against the run that the Hawks.
For example, Steven Jackson was injured in the 3rd against Seattle. They did not face Ryan Mathews and only Mike Tolbert. The Raiders were more worried about Denver passing against them, then they were about the rush. The Hawks could say the same about the Cards, but come on, Max Hall was the QB. It's not like they were playing prevent.
Maybe all of this means nothing, maybe the Hawks D is a stone wall or maybe they haven't really been tested? I don't know, but I am fairly certain we are all about to find out. Let's just hope Campbell and the *Smurfs complete enough passes to keep them honest.
*the coaches new nickname for Ford and Miller Lite
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A statistical anomaly
similar to the 2006 Art Shell Raider team, that was so bad, falling behind so quickly that opposing teams abandoned the pass and just ran the ball…Successfully. The Raiders of that year were #1 against the pass and #31 against the run. That was Nnamdi’s breakout year, but opposing teams simply didn’t throw, when running was so easy and successful.
I believe we are seeing the same thing with Seattle this year and if Hue utilizes the talent proficiently, the Raiders will have success both running and passing this Sunday.
Your team is your child...You love it no matter what.
Stats are for losers
Raheem Morris said it best: "Stats are for losers, so you keep looking at stats, we’ll keep looking at wins". if you go by stats those baby blue girls are the best O and D in the NFL. Just run, just screen pass , just don’t look at the stats, and Just Win Baby!!
Stats are for losers usually when you're leading the league in yards gained for example but in the middle of the pack in points.
However I’ve said it before, run defense stats don’t lie. I would prefer to have the Oakland pass defense of the Charger game and force them to throw since they couldn’t run successfully instead of vice versa. That year we were in the top 3 in pass defense but it didn’t mean anything because we couldn’t stop the run and teams just kept running because our offense was so atrocious they assumed our defense would tire eventually. Which of course is what happened. I am saying I would rather have Seattle’s defensive stats than ours right now. I’m pretty sure we would be leading the AFC West if that was the case.
"I didn't fail the test, I just found 100 ways to do it wrong"
- Benjamin Franklin
Yes, but don't the stats above aren't that much different from each other
So, the question is: What does that say?
I promise; I will never die.
by Rich Langford on Oct 29, 2010 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Samething could be said bout the raiders....
Teams choose not to pass because it’s easier for them to run. Hence the top 5 pass defense. Shit, how may int. does the backfield have? I know we give up a lot of running yards and a lot of penalties.
Just because we should beat this team doesn’t mean we will beat this team.
"There comes a point an a mans life, he has to step up… I dont care what kind of man you are!!! there come’s a point where he has to fight!!! He has to has that in ’em! He gotta have that in ’em… Lets go, LETS GO!!! FIGHT on 3… 1-2-3- FIGHT!!!! -Richard Seymour
by gogomaplata on Oct 29, 2010 8:45 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
HMMMMMM is Right !!!
So if we Look at the stats, and run with it like it’s gospel, Campbell WILL HAVE to throw 40 to 50 pass’s this game !!!! We’re going to have to abandon the run completely, and live or die with the pass. Really !!!! If that does’nt make you go Hmmmmmmm, I don’t’ know what will.
I don’t give a flying fuck what Seattle does, The Raiders need to do what they do best, and the Running Game has been the best thing they do, controlling the clock, and time of possession. BTW, we got a running back who’s having a breakout year in McFadden aka McFezzy !!!!(Can’t call him McFumble anymore) Per the NFL channel, Sterling Sharpe, Joe Theisman, Mike Billeck, Seattle is weak against runs to the outside, which happens to be McFaddens strength. If the Raiders do what they’re capable of, (Running McFadden)(blocking exceptionally) and be prudent with they play calling(Hue !!!) Once they spread them out , bust Bush up the inside, and wear they’er azz’s out, and back to the chosen 1, McFeezy. We should be looking at a win, with a 4-4 record !!!
i do very much agree
I hate when teams or people say, “If you take away that long run we held them to (insert excuse number here).”
if we were good, we would take away that one big run. we do need to stop imagining and start doing, but you cant exactly ignore the fact that most big run games are inflated by one or two plays. take away runs of 50+ yards, n we would have the best run d in the league right now! that you cant argue against. we just need to figure out a way to stop the big run (stop makin mental errors, blown coverages, mismatched plays, people not filling gaps)
By Prudent, I mean .......
Campbell manages the game, much like he did in Denver !!!!
Appreciate the argument and statistical support, LiveAdam & Noontide. The difference in rush D isn't much
As for rushing offense, this is where we show a significant difference. We lead the NFL in total yards rushing and two of those games, SF & StD, McBroken didn’t play. If Hue’s learning curve continues to climb, we will be treated (not tricked) to variations of RB/FB usage.
All the QB needs to do is not fuck-up; the 4 Horsemen of the apocalypse (Marcel, Mike, Zack, Darren) are more than enough to rack up points given our blossoming O-line.
S-O-B: ITS HOW I ROLL, DEAL WITH IT.
papabe, S.D. and Sons, SOMETIMES bend don't break is good.
We kind of saw it in pre-season. We lived it in regular season with mixed results. Yeah, you want to kick ass all the time but it all comes down to the TALENT, and the COACHING. I have to blame the COACHING, as when they do figure out that letting the dogs out (on D) produces results, it’s because they have the talent to do so. Same with Mr. Hugh and the “O”. I was sitting in a bar in Rifle Colorado for the Bronco game (in a Grateful Dead T shirt- At 55 I just know better) rooting for the Raiders. At 21-0 the guy next to me (a concrete worker ) told me “Maybe you should move dude”. I stayed, fuck ‘em (I’m 6’4" 275 ). I told the entire bar (who were bitching profusely) that this was like a wet dream I had once. It was. MANAGING the game is cool when you have the lead and you want to wind down the clock. Giving the offense a “Jump Start” ( See Bruce Almighty) is what we need every play ,on every down for the entire game offensively , AND on Defense. We have to LEARN HOW to win , as well as how to RESPOND when we DO . For us a victory is like winning the Superbowl , or the division. Winning has to become the norm, not an afterthought. If this victory happens……….. we as a Raider Nation can look forward to a division title run. It’s said week after week by Sons , papa and I – and it’s true boys. EVERY WEEK is a MUST WEEK. An old gent said it and it made sense to me then and does now ,more than ever, went something like “Just WIN Baby”. FUCK STATS! R.F.F.R.
Well said. Way to stand and deliver in hostile country but I've a friend who grew up in
Cheyenne [sic] WY and know that he appreciated (a driller in Alaska who is no longer with us) good hard football no matter who was playing – so these assholes must have, at least, given the Raiders some credit (if generalizations apply). Anyway, “pedal to the metal” is what’s needed and the “bend over don’t break it off in our ass” mentality is for losers. We have amazing speed at LB, Safety and CB (all in all the fastest there is) the Warden Wimbley is a natural born sack-machine (drafted in the 1st round), San Quentin is a sack-specialist who tied Auburn’s sack record (taken in the 2nd round by Jackonsville who traded up 6-places to get him to get to QBs, Scott has proven himself a superb QB presser and Huff has redeemed his earlier performances by his ball stripping in the backfield and near the LOS, Branch and Mitchell are both talented QB killers. All in all we have the best LBs & DBs for stunts and blitzes ever assembled. This is what Field Marshall John needs to realize and capitalize on. And that’s not even mentioning the Raider’s right flank OLinemen: Seymour & Shaunghesy, two heroic sumbitches. Marshall has all this at his disposal and only needs to unleash the black death hell.
S-O-B: ITS HOW I ROLL, DEAL WITH IT.
by Sons-of-Blanda on Oct 29, 2010 7:52 PM PDT up reply actions
A Little Clarification for you, Wyo !!!!!
I’m in Total agreement with you on mostly everything you said, and BTW, at 6’4" 275, I think I’d let you watch my back, once I got to know you better, but we off to a good start. The Raiders have always had that Bend, Don’t Break Attitude, and every now and then, they don’t even bend, like last Sunday !!! Coaching has been the nature of the up & down play this year. Marshall & Hue need always keep the pedal to metal, from play 1.
And it’s time to get over that last hump, and string some wins together. With that the rest will come, far as commitment, Attitude, and improved FA signings for the future. Players are gonna come in droves, since we’re lagging in the draft pick dept.
Now far as Bruce Almighty, until he’s healed, and in my opinion(Spirals Too, so don’t bite my head off, Sons) from the way he was throwing, BEFORE he went down, I think there’s more going on, than what we’ve been told, far as Bruce’s shoulder !!!(Rotator Cuff, I think)
P.S. Someone needs to check the website, everything is coming out in bold !!!! I didn’t do that on purpose, and S-O-B never bolds everything !!! And I don’t think WYO meant too either !!!
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