Comparing the Raider's Defense over the last three years. Do we need a big change?
by OmahaHi on Dec 18, 2010 4:26 PM PST
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Stats found on NFL.com here. These are Defensive Rankings vr other Teams in the NFL.
2008 2009 2010
Yards per game 27th 26th 14th
Total points 24th 23rd 14th
passing yards 10th 7th 7th
rushing yards 31st 29th 26th
sacks 13th 11th 4th
turnover's per game 23rd 30th 22nd
Ok our D has improved alot in YPG, PPG. Sacks and TO/PG have improved slightly. We have stayed the same on PassYpg and RushYpg.
These numbers didn't tell me enough of what I wanted to know particularly on why is our Rush D bad and who is to blame. I looked at some advanced stats to find out. What I found out is basically:
Our front 4, Blitz schemes and coverage is at the top of the NFL.
Our linebackers and secondary are at the bottom of the NFL in pursuing and tackling RB's.
The left side of our run defense is our teams weakness, the right side is our teams strength.
We don't get enough turnovers to ever be an elite Defense.
Either the Defense system/scheme is broken in regards to our secondary 7 ever being good at stopping the run or the players we have there are just not good enough. Probably some of both, but I would say it is more the scheme. Our scheme is made to stop the pass. But not with turnovers which points to our heavy reliance on back to the QB man to man D.
Only read the rest if you are interested in a deep analysis of the Defense from a advanced perspective. Make sure to click on the links. This will attempt to explain the strengh and weakness of mainly our run defense since this is where our Defense is worst :
A) how good our front 7 is against the run,
B) how good we are in clutch situation run Defense,
C) how good is our front four vr the run and vr the pass
D) how is our linebackers run d
E) how is our back 7 secondary against the run
F) which side of the D line is better vr the run
Now some innovative statistics from footballoutsiders.com that trys to answer some important questions about a Run Defense. You can take a few hours reading there breakdown and you should do this but I'm going to try and make it a little easier and alot shorter to understand. I think this really points to the strength and weaknesses of our Defense with the Big weaknesses better understood after seeing them.
I'm going to explain each new stat. read the simple definitions if you don't want to think about it much. I'm going to rank the Best Teams Defense, the Raiders rank, then the worst teams defense in each unique category.
Adjusted Line Yards- adjusted for the quality of offensive opponents and situation.
simple definition:how good is the front seven against the run no matter if they play a cake schedule or not
#1-PIT #2-CHI #3-NYJ- no surprises here
#10-OAK- nice
#30-IND #31-TB #32-BUF.
Power Success: Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer.Teams are ranked from lowest power success percentage allowed (#1) to highest power success percentage allowed (#32).
simple definition: how does the Defense stop the run when it is a clutch situation.:
#1 New Orleans.Surprise. there the best clutch run D. #2 Detroit- Suggs? #3 Green Bay
Raiders are #9. Not bad at all.
#30- New England-what? #31- Chicago- what? #32 CIN- okaaaa.
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Stuffed: Percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. Ranked from most stuffs (#1) to fewest stuffs (#32).
Simple definition: RB sacks.
#1-CHI- #2-JAC-#3- DET
Raiders are # 5. pretty dam good.
#30-DEN #31-BUF #32-CLE
Second level yards- How good is your Linebackers and Linebacker scheme vr the run
#1- SF #2- PIT #3- NYJ
#16- Raiders- Middle of the road
#30- IND #31- STL #32- TB
Open Field Yards: Yardage gained by running backs at least 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, divided by total running back carries.
simple definition: how good is the linebackers and secondary at pursuing and tackling a RB.
#1-PIT #2-GB #3-NYJ
#32- Raiders- this is the biggest weakness with our defense. We were 31st, 16th and 30th the prior three years.
#29- WAS #30-JAC #31- CIN
Adjusted Line Yards in each direction- which side of our D line/linebackers is good or bad when a team runs
Raiders- when the other team runs a Left Sweep- Our right side is 4th.
when the other team runs up the gut- We are 18th
when the other team runs on Right Tackle- Our left End is 13th
when they run a Right Sweep- Our left side is 30th-
ding ding dong we have a loser. click dong for dead witches.
when they run on the Left Tackle- Our Right End is 4th -
ding ding ding we have a winner. click winner to pick up hot chicks.
adjusted sack rate-,Sacks (plus intentional grounding penalties) per pass attempt adjusted for down, distance, and opponent.
simple definition: how good is our front 4, Blitz schemes and coverage. regardless of how little other teams pass the ball.
#1- Raiders- wow. This is our strength. we were 6th in 08' and 09'.
We Bad Mother Fuckers
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#2- SD #3- PIT #4- NYG
#30- DEN #31- CIN #32- TB
This one breaks down drive statistic ranks per Defense.
Yards per Drive etc. If we have lots of low ranks we are good. Lots of High ranks we are bad.
FUM/Dr represents Fumbles Lost per drive. #1 gets more lost fumbles than any other defense.
LOS/Dr represents average starting field position(line of scrimmage) per drive. Closer to the 1, the better
Team
Raiders 10'
27.78 (10)
Raiders 09'
Raiders 08'
Raiders 07'
Raiders 06'
Where we are really lacking is Defensive TO's. This more than anything else is what's keeping our Defense from ever being elite. INT's per drive against our Defense is terrible even though it was good 06'-08'. Fum/Dr has always been bad but better this year.
It would make it seem that we are not pressuring the QB into interceptions but we know different. This seems to be a problem with our man to man D. If We got twice as many interceptions I could live with alot more passing yards against.
FUM/DR can be lack of the sackers stripping the ball from the QB, lack of our D hitting/stripping the ball on tackles, or lack of coaching and scheme. Getting fumble specialist's would be very help-full. Spending three times as much time in practice on nothing but stripping the ball and the QB's arm would be help-full.
Conclusion:
Perhaps a 3-4 zone is what the Raiders should switch too long term since the 4-3 back to the QB man to man doesn't seem to be working out. No Turnovers equals no points off turnovers equals no stops equals less wins. Teams win games all the time off of a big turnover for 6 or getting a turnover at the end of the game and we do not get our share. Remember we were dead last on how good is the linebackers and secondary at pursuing and tackeling and we are close to last on forced turnovers with interceptions being the main problem. QB's can throw the ball at our corners without worring about Interceptions. Other teams may not get many passes completed but we don't get the fruits of a wayword pass.
The 4-3 man seems to let us down. (31, 16, 30, 32) is our rank the last four years on pursuing and tackling, and we are at the bottom in TO/per drive the last few years. why is that going to change if we never try a different D?
Click here for a defintion of what the 3-4 and 4-3 try to do to rush the QB in pass downs. and here on the different types of personnel the 3-4 needs.
A team with a high ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a low ranking in Open Field Yards has a strong defensive line but its linebackers and secondary have difficulty against the run. Sounds like us.
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Sweet post man.
We just need a better secondary. Nnamdi is the only guy we have really.
We need a dominant safety. A guy who can sniff out the run, as well as be a playmaker in the pass.
A good #2 corner, that can tackle, will work as well.
We need to draft a: FS, CB, OL, LB. I think we are fine with DL, Houston is Young, and will improve.
A playmaking FS, with Mitchell as the SS. A good, tackling corner opposite Nnamdi. McClain will have a year in the NFL next year, and should be a force. We need OLBs who have very good awareness as well. A guy I like is Mark Herzlich, from BC.
We just need to fill our gaps, and execute. The defense we have is fine, but I wouldn’t mind switching to a more hybrid 4-3/3-4 defense. It’s just that we don’t have a NT for the 3-4.
IF, we get a true NT, then I think we should give the 3-4 a shot, and I think we’ll be better.
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
These players, a lot of other people didn't believe in them, but they believe in themselves. And that is all that matters."- Bill Belichick
I'm also a Raider Fan dammit!!! RAIDER NATION!!!!
would like to throw in some 3-4 looks in there as well,
i just dont think we have the personnel for it, as you said we lack a NT, we also lack the linebackers for it. either Groves or Brown would be on the field all the time….and i would like their playing time kept to a minimum lol
by RyanTheRaider on Dec 18, 2010 7:57 PM PST up reply actions
not necessarily true.
Trevor Scott would be a great 3-4 OLB. He has speed, and pass rushing ability.
Another guy would be wimbley. He would fit well at outside.
Next to Rolando on the inside, I think Brown will do nicely. Or if we still have Thomas Howard, he would fit great next to mcclain.
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
These players, a lot of other people didn't believe in them, but they believe in themselves. And that is all that matters."- Bill Belichick
I'm also a Raider Fan dammit!!! RAIDER NATION!!!!
Don't Throw the Baby Out With the Bathwater
The Football Outsiders numbers confirm everything we’ve witnessed with our defense – strong defensive line, weakness at OLB, man-to-man coverage scheme allows for big runs in the second level.
How do you go from “we’ve got an amazing defensive line that is great at both run-stopping and pass-rushing” to “we need to blow the whole thing up and go to a 3-4 defense?” I don’t understand the logic.
I am a big proponent of making schematic changes in the defensive back 7 – mixing in more zone protections to confuse offenses and likely providing somewhat better run protection. But don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater, just fix the things that need improving.
"You call it, I'll haul it." - Michael Bush
"When we play tough, and we play physical, and when we play the way we're supposed to play, can't nobody beat us." - Richard "SeaMonster" Seymour
"The guys who are fast enough to catch him aren't strong enough to bring him down." - Jack Del Rio on Darren McFadden
Not really blow the whole thing up, but just bring in more of a 3-4. Our players on D are good enough that most can do both without seeing any slack. Think about it.
Groves: Oversized LB
Scott: Undersized DE
Wimbley: Oversized LB
Houston: Oversized DE
Seymour, Kelly and Houston can all play a DE in a 3-4 scheme, but they all can play DT in a 4-3 scheme as well. Houston can even play DE in a 4-3. I’m very much in favor for a switch to the 3-4. Whether it be full time, or just another addition to Marshall’s playbook.
"Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing." Vince Lombardi
The only thing we’d be missing is a NT.
"Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing." Vince Lombardi
Yep.
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
These players, a lot of other people didn't believe in them, but they believe in themselves. And that is all that matters."- Bill Belichick
I'm also a Raider Fan dammit!!! RAIDER NATION!!!!
Ask him. The 3-4 is not only so much more fun to watch, but is also very elite.
"Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing." Vince Lombardi
ask who?
I do believe it is elite, and very versatile, but the 4-3 is very good too. We just need a couple more guys, and then we’ll be a top 5 defense imo.
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
These players, a lot of other people didn't believe in them, but they believe in themselves. And that is all that matters."- Bill Belichick
I'm also a Raider Fan dammit!!! RAIDER NATION!!!!
by patriotguy2 on Dec 19, 2010 12:04 AM PST up reply actions
that and a coach that can run the 3-4
I would love to run the 3-4 but only if we get the right coaching staff. We need a new DC Linebackers coach, and DB coach. I don’t think Huff and Branch Suck I think I our system is asking too much for Safety’s play man to man so much. If we allow Branch come down in the box and roam I think we can get more turnovers.
agreed
huff has made some good and bad plays this season. our defense has put him in alot of bad situations, like covering way faster receivers 1 on 1 and having to stop alot of big runs….i dont think we should have 2 safeties leading our team in tackles, and i think all the man to man coverage is the reason they do, more zone please!
by RyanTheRaider on Dec 19, 2010 10:39 PM PST up reply actions
We don't need the 3-4
We just need to mix in some zone coverage here and there.
Man to man works as our base defense, and our front 4 is the best in the league. If anything Al Davis scheme still can work when your players are better then the guys across from them. Our D-Line has consistently been better then our opponent’s o-line as we’ve picked up the majority of our pressure and sacks from a 4 man rush.
Now the problem is the coverage behind it. Teams can gameplan the shit out of us because they know they’ll see man coverage 99% of the time. When we start to mix in some zone I think we’ll find a couple of playmakers we didn’t know we had.
For the record I am saying keep playing man as our base. Run it 70 % with some zone, both basic, and exotic brought in just to give qbs something extra to look at. The 4-3 is not the problem guys. Although I am all for running multiple D. I like the idea of making a qb have to watch a whole extra day of tape when they have to play you.
by TheDudeAbides138 on Dec 18, 2010 10:55 PM PST reply actions
The 4-3 is only good when you have great players in it. Think about it. All the Top D’s are ran by 3-4 teams. There’s a reason for that.
"Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing." Vince Lombardi
I think the main reason is
is that they have drafted, and signed guys who fit their schemes more, coupled with excellent DCs. We haven’t been drafting well besides 2010, and we haven’t really signed anyone good in FA besides this year, and seymour(though it was a trade).
We dont have a GREAT DC, and our defense is young. It will take time. 4 of the top 10 defenses play 4-3. That’s nearly half. That is: NY Giants(#2), NO Saints(#6), MN Vikings(#7), Ch Bears(#8).
I do like the 3-4 better, but I think we are a couple pieces away from a being a top 10, 4-3 defensive team(also, yes, they are young).
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
These players, a lot of other people didn't believe in them, but they believe in themselves. And that is all that matters."- Bill Belichick
I'm also a Raider Fan dammit!!! RAIDER NATION!!!!
by patriotguy2 on Dec 19, 2010 12:10 AM PST up reply actions
McClain is one of the highest-drafted ILB in years
And there’s a reason for that. Modern defenses are keyed by OLB, not ILB. Rey Maualuga and James Lauranitis, two of the best LB prospects in ages, were taken in round 2. Round 2! ILB just aren’t that important. I know, you can say “tell that to Ray Lewis” but he is a preternatural talent and the best LB since Lawrence Taylor or Ray Nitschke.
I say that to say this: The Raiders need a major upgrade at OLB to really make this defense special. McClain is good and will be every bit the ILB we drafted him to be, anyone who saw him play in college can tell you how good he is, and I followed him closely. We just need someone special, in the Terrell Suggs/Demarcus Ware/Clay Matthews mold.
Some prospects I like for us next year are Von Miller, Mason Foster, Jeremy Beal (as a hybrid DE/OLB) or Casey Matthews of Oregon, who I feel has the speed and skills to be moved to OLB. I think we could target one or two of these guys and have a major upgrade for our entire scheme.
These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others. -Groucho Marx
don't forget Mark Herzlich, BC.
The guy can play all LB positions, and is also a superb cove LB who has more than 4 INTs this ear I believe.
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
These players, a lot of other people didn't believe in them, but they believe in themselves. And that is all that matters."- Bill Belichick
I'm also a Raider Fan dammit!!! RAIDER NATION!!!!
I love watching him play. He’s everywhere.
"Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing." Vince Lombardi
he;s projected in the 3rd or 4th I believe.
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
These players, a lot of other people didn't believe in them, but they believe in themselves. And that is all that matters."- Bill Belichick
I'm also a Raider Fan dammit!!! RAIDER NATION!!!!
If we secure a true NT then I'm in favor of converting back to 3-4 which will exploit our speed.
Left-side OLB, FS, and LCB are critical upgrades. Goethel should back Ro in the middle.
S-O-B: ITS HOW I ROLL, DEAL WITH IT.
"We had to get back to who we are, and that's physical and smash-mouth." - Robert Gallery 12/5/2010
We currently lack the true Ngata, Wilfork type NT body
but that doesn’t mean we can’t show some three man fronts in Dime packages, and actually use some 3-4 alignments and zone up in the secondary. I’ve wanted us to mix it up, as i believe the wealth of backers we have could be better utilized in situations. Why we haven’t somehow gotten Howard on the field when we struggle to cover the Marcedes Lewis’ of the league I have no idea.
The numbers do not lie. Great post, Omaha: well-supported theses on why this team continues to struggle in areas they have for quite some time. The Rolando situation only exacerbates an already glaring weakness. Let’s hope this factor doesn’t play into today’s game. The weather can only make things worse.
"The only yardstick for success our society has is being a champion. No one remembers anything else."--John Madden
""The massive Raider Nation is beyond doubt the sleaziest and rudest and most sinister mob of thugs and wackos ever assembled."--Hunter S. Thompson
We CAN use 3-4
but it will likely be not very effective because we don’t have that true NT.
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
These players, a lot of other people didn't believe in them, but they believe in themselves. And that is all that matters."- Bill Belichick
I'm also a Raider Fan dammit!!! RAIDER NATION!!!!
we use that hybrid 3-4 crap were i believe Dick drops into coverage after the snap...
We’ve used it a few times!
I want to be the modern day version of Super Mario Brothers!!! Dont care for *shrooms*, but would love to *get large* and *spit fire*...unless im constantly told "thanks, but your girl is in another castle". That would rate a 8.9 on the ole *Suck-ometer*!!!
by Kobe Won Kenobi on Dec 19, 2010 8:40 AM PST reply actions
I like adding the 34 defense packages
However, I think if we could get haynesworth for a good deal than he could be our NT for those packages. Seymour, haynesworth, kelly is a pretty big physical line, basically is 4 linemen.
by oakland9 on Dec 19, 2010 9:41 AM PST via mobile reply actions
Haynesworth publicly stated that he does not want to play in a 3-4. lol
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
These players, a lot of other people didn't believe in them, but they believe in themselves. And that is all that matters."- Bill Belichick
I'm also a Raider Fan dammit!!! RAIDER NATION!!!!
by patriotguy2 on Dec 19, 2010 10:33 AM PST up reply actions
That's the key phrase, 3-4 PACKAGES !!!!!
The 3-4 wouldn’t be our base defense, and Haynesworth wouldn’t have as problem playing here !!! What better team for him to come to, and basically pillege offensive lineman, Than the RAIDERS !!! Hayneworth wouldn’t be in the nose position everytime, considering our current roster. And moving him all over the line would be a nightmare for opposing offenses to deal with !!! The upside to this, he wouldn’t cost us that much, especially if Washington cuts him. Now if we had to trade a pick, or player of some worth, we would have to think on it, otherwise IMO, it would be a win, win for us !!!
A 3-4 hybrid is the way to go and we must hire a 3-4 guru like Mike Pettine fom the Jets.
I think Marshall being fired is almost a done deal no matter what we do the rest of the season. I just don’t want a half-ass hire like Rob Ryan for example. We need someone who will partake in picking the necessary pieces to install this type of defense. Maybe moving Howard to SS or picking up a new FS in the off-season like Otagwe from STL. We also need two more LBs (OLB and ILB maybe via the draft, a 320+ LB NT like the kid from Hampton will be available in the 3rd or 4th rd and another pass-rusher for depth. Our rush defense and man to man equals few turnovers created and if we were even middle of the road in the run defense department we may be playing Denver with a chance to clinch the AFC West right about now.
Trust No One
Studies show stress can kill you, but don't worry about it.
I will be super stoked if
I never EVER have to watch Chris Johnson make average receivers look like pro bowlers again. Wouldn’t mind seeing Huff or Branch get tossed out on their asses either. I’m not crazy about Groves and Ricky Brown does nothing for me. A competent #2 corner would be nice, and I’m not sure I trust Routt enough to be that guy.
Great Post
Im late to it but it is great. I think most of the Big plays can be fixed with a better FS. Huff, is neutral, wait, bad. I don’t think he plays all the great at all. Misses tackles, bad positioning, bad FS. No range either. Tyvon is good though, but is always manning up with the TE or something. A FS will fix many of these issues.
If Winning Isn't Everthing, Why Do They Keep Score? - Vince Lombardi
Indeed. I like Mitchell, but him and Tyvon don’t fair well against pass happy teams. I liked the idea of Thomas Howard, but then again he’d be to slow and not quick enough…I think. I’m not sure, but it’d be cool to he him at SS. Like a Adrian Wilson, but bigger
"Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing." Vince Lombardi
Just my .02, but...
There are no championship level defenses without a top safety, a player that punishes the run, and is a playmaker in the pass defense. We haven’t had a player like that for how many years…? About as many as the defense has struggled.
It isn’t that the 3-4 is the only defense that can make plays, it’s that we don’t have enough playmakers. Players, yes; playmakers, no. There are a number of potential free agents that will come up after the season, and depending on the CBA, it will be interesting to see what happens with the FA pool. Regardless, I would like to see the position upgraded, which would make the entire defense better. S and OLB, more than MLB, are the keys to the defense…
Failure builds character; success reveals it
Depends on what the DBs are doing (man, zone..) whether S is more crucial than MLB, especially in a 4-3 the MLB is key.
S-O-B: ITS HOW I ROLL, DEAL WITH IT.
"We had to get back to who we are, and that's physical and smash-mouth." - Robert Gallery 12/5/2010
by Sons-of-Blanda on Dec 21, 2010 12:47 PM PST up reply actions
Have to disagree...
for instance, the player considered stil to be the premier MLB, Ray Lewis, when he was injured the defense didn’t drop off much. Not because Lewis is over-rated or anything like that, but because his worst year came when he didn’t have the DT’s in front of him, due to injury. Even in that defense, as important as he is, he is not the key player. Especially today, with all the movement and shifting coverages, the safety is the QB of the defense, whether 3-4 or 4-3. OLB’s are becoming more important due to their more varied uses, allowing defenses to shift from 4-3 to 3-4 without as much personnel rotation, plus their additional coverage responsibilities.
MLB used to be the key, but the league, and defenses are changing…
Failure builds character; success reveals it
Im man to man
where the MLB guards the running back, it is vital
If Winning Isn't Everthing, Why Do They Keep Score? - Vince Lombardi
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