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Comparing the Raider's Defense over the last three years. Do we need a big change?


Stats found on NFL.com here. These are Defensive Rankings vr other Teams in the NFL.

                                              2008          2009          2010

Yards per game                       27th         26th          14th                                                   


Total points                             24th           23rd         14th

passing yards                        10th             7th          7th

rushing yards                         31st             29th        26th

sacks                                     13th            11th          4th

turnover's per game              23rd             30th        22nd

 

Ok our D has improved alot in YPG, PPG. Sacks and TO/PG have improved slightly. We have stayed the same on PassYpg and RushYpg.  

 

These numbers didn't tell me enough of what I wanted to know particularly on why is our Rush D bad and who is to blame. I looked at some advanced stats to find out. What I found out is basically:

 

Our front 4, Blitz schemes and coverage is at the top of the NFL.

Our linebackers and secondary are at the bottom of the NFL in pursuing and tackling RB's.

The left side of our run defense is our teams weakness, the right side is our teams strength.

We don't get enough turnovers to ever be an elite Defense.

 

Either the Defense system/scheme is broken in regards to our secondary 7 ever being good at stopping the run or the players we have there are just not good enough. Probably some of both, but I would say it is more the  scheme. Our scheme is made to stop the pass. But not with turnovers which points to our heavy reliance on back to the QB man to man D. 

 

Only read the rest if you are interested in a deep analysis of the Defense from a advanced perspective. Make sure to click on the links. This will attempt to explain the strengh and weakness of mainly our run defense since this is where our Defense is worst :

A) how good our front 7 is against the run,

 B) how good we are in clutch situation run Defense,

 C) how good is our front four vr the run and vr the pass

 D) how is our linebackers run d 

E) how is our back 7 secondary against the run

 F) which side of the D line is better vr the run

 

Now some innovative statistics from footballoutsiders.com that trys to answer some important questions about a Run Defense. You can take a few hours reading there breakdown and you should do this but I'm going to try and make it a little easier and alot shorter to understand. I think this really points to the strength and weaknesses of our Defense with the Big weaknesses better understood after seeing them.

I'm going to explain each new stat. read the simple definitions if you don't want to think about it much.  I'm going to rank the Best Teams Defense, the  Raiders rank, then the worst teams defense in each unique category.

 

Adjusted Line Yards-  adjusted for the quality of offensive opponents and situation.

simple definition:how good is the front seven against the run no matter if they play a cake schedule or not

#1-PIT #2-CHI #3-NYJ- no surprises here 

#10-OAK- nice

#30-IND #31-TB #32-BUF. 

 

Power Success: Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer.Teams are ranked from lowest power success percentage allowed (#1) to highest power success percentage allowed (#32).

simple definition: how does the Defense stop the run when it is a clutch situation.:

#1 New Orleans.Surprise. there the best clutch run D. #2 Detroit- Suggs? #3 Green Bay

Raiders are #9. Not bad at all.

#30- New England-what?  #31- Chicago- what? #32 CIN-  okaaaa.    

 Click here to hear all of Dave Chapell's Lil John sounds and pranks. Very cool site.  Yeeaah!!!

 

Stuffed: Percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. Ranked from most stuffs (#1) to fewest stuffs (#32).

Simple definition: RB sacks.

#1-CHI- #2-JAC-#3- DET

Raiders are # 5. pretty dam good.

#30-DEN  #31-BUF  #32-CLE

 

Second level yards- How good is your Linebackers and Linebacker scheme vr the run

#1- SF #2- PIT #3- NYJ 

#16- Raiders- Middle of the road

 #30- IND  #31- STL  #32- TB

 

Open Field Yards: Yardage gained by running backs at least 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, divided by total running back carries.

simple definition: how good is the linebackers and secondary at pursuing and tackling a RB.

#1-PIT #2-GB #3-NYJ

#32- Raiders- this is the biggest weakness with our defense. We were 31st, 16th and 30th the prior three years.

#29- WAS  #30-JAC  #31- CIN

 

Adjusted Line Yards in each direction- which side of our D line/linebackers is good or bad when a team runs

Raiders-   when the other team runs a Left Sweep-     Our right side is 4th.

                 when  the other team runs up the gut-          We are 18th

                 when the other team runs on Right Tackle-  Our left End is 13th

                 when they run a Right Sweep-                    Our left side is 30th-

ding ding dong we have a loser. click dong for dead witches. 

                 when they run on the Left Tackle-          Our Right End is 4th -

ding ding ding we have a winner.     click winner to pick up hot chicks.                                                                                                                                                                                    

 

adjusted sack rate-,Sacks (plus intentional grounding penalties) per pass attempt adjusted for down, distance, and opponent.

simple definition: how good is our front 4, Blitz schemes and coverage.  regardless of how little other teams pass the ball.

#1- Raiders- wow.  This is our strength. we were 6th in 08' and 09'. 

We Bad Mother Fuckers

Click  Fucker's . Now Click Bad. Click Mother and start about 30-40 seconds in. Finally click  Bad Mother Fucker and scroll down for Great Pulp Fiction quotes.

#2- SD  #3- PIT  #4- NYG

#30- DEN  #31- CIN   #32- TB

 

 

This one breaks down drive statistic ranks per Defense.

Yards per Drive etc.  If we have lots of low ranks we are good. Lots of High ranks we are bad.

FUM/Dr represents Fumbles Lost per drive. #1 gets more lost fumbles than any other defense.

 LOS/Dr represents average starting field position(line of scrimmage) per drive. Closer to the 1, the better

 Team                 Yds/Dr                   Pts/Dr                  TOs/Dr              INT/Dr                FUM/Dr            LOS/Dr    

Raiders  10'          27.78 (10)          1.86 (19)                 .093 (31)           .050 (30)             .043 (19)           31.06 (26)    

NYG    10'                21.78  (1)           1.43   (4)             .185   (3)           .089 (16)              .096  (1)             33.52 (32)

DEN    10'                32.69 (26)           2.37 (30)              .073 (32)            .040 (32)               .033 (28)         31.90 (27)  

Raiders 09'                                                                   .081 (32)             .043 (32)              .038 (25)

Raiders 08'                                                                    .117 (23)             .085 (13)             .032  (28)

Raiders 07'                                                                    130 (22)             .097 (13)              .032 (30)

Raiders 06'                                                                    .122 (27)           .099 (11)              .022 (31)

 Where we are really lacking is Defensive TO's. This more than anything else is what's keeping our Defense from ever being elite.  INT's per drive against our Defense is terrible even though it was good 06'-08'. Fum/Dr has always been bad but better this year.  

It  would make it seem that we are not pressuring the QB into interceptions but we know different.  This seems to be a problem with our man to man D.  If We got twice as many interceptions I could live with alot more passing yards against.

FUM/DR can be lack of the sackers stripping the ball from the QB, lack of our D hitting/stripping the ball on tackles, or lack of coaching and scheme.  Getting fumble specialist's would be very help-full. Spending three times as much time in practice on nothing but stripping the ball and the QB's arm would be help-full. 

 

Conclusion:

Perhaps a 3-4 zone is what the Raiders should switch too long term since the 4-3 back to the QB man to man doesn't seem to be working out.  No Turnovers equals no points off turnovers equals no stops equals less wins.  Teams win games all the time off of a big turnover for 6 or getting a turnover at the end of the game and we do not get our share. Remember we were dead last on how good is the linebackers and secondary at pursuing and tackeling and we are close to last on forced turnovers with interceptions being the main problem.  QB's can throw the ball at our corners without worring about Interceptions. Other teams may not get many passes completed but we don't get the fruits of a wayword pass.

The 4-3 man seems to let us down. (31, 16, 30, 32) is our rank the last four years on pursuing and tackling, and we are at the bottom in TO/per drive the last few years. why is that going to change if we never try a different D?   

Click here for a defintion of what the 3-4 and 4-3 try to do to rush the QB in pass downs. and here on the different types of personnel the 3-4 needs.

A team with a high ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a low ranking in Open Field Yards has a strong defensive line but its linebackers and secondary have difficulty against the run. Sounds like us.

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