Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Raiders' GM Begins The Purge

Interview: Bill Barnwell and Football Outsiders Don't Like The 2010 Oakland Raiders Playoff Chances

I recently had the opportunity to read the 2010 Football Outsiders breakdown on the Oakland Raiders and I must say that I agreed with very little of it, but, when I contacted Bill Barnwell about some important issues, he was kind enough to answer some questions for me and his answers were spot on.

It was refreshing to get a different perspective.

If you are unaware of Bill's work and Football Outsiders as a whole, I can sum it up in one phrase for all of the true East Bay fans, "Football Outsiders is a Bill Jamesian or Moneyball look at Football". In short, they take a look at football from a numbers perspective and try to make predictions for on field performance and wins, or lack thereof, in the win column for every NFL Team.

Football Outsiders Purchasing Info

So, without further ado, my e-mail interview with Bill Barnwell:

Intro: Mr. Barnwell, thank you for taking the time to answer some questions about the Oakland Raiders.

After reading your rather scathing report card on the Raiders and looking at your projections, I have a few questions:

Raymond St. Martin:
  When you calculated the 2009 performance what did you think about the way that the team performed under Bruce Gradkowski?

Bill Barnwell: Well, they were clearly better with Gradkowski behind center. Gradkowski had a -0.8% DVOA, which doesn't sound all that great, but it's 24th in the league; consider that JaMarcus Russell had a league-worst -57.3% DVOA, while Charlie Frye was at -22.9%. Gradkowski's traditional statistics would look even better if he'd had the chance to play against some weak pass defenses. He saw significant action against the Jets (league's best pass defense by DVOA), Bengals (10th), Steelers (14th), and Cowboys (15th). The Redskins (20th) were the only below-average defense he faced.


RS: How would you compare Bruce Gradkowski to Jason Campbell?

BB: They strike me as remarkably different players. Gradkowski's good at the things Campbell struggles with -- he feels the rush better, he's better when he scrambles, and he's a better improviser. On the other hand, Campbell's got a far stronger arm, is significantly more accurate, and does a better job of staying tall in the pocket and making plays. Campbell's clearly the questionable player, but either is a significant upgrade on Russell/Frye.

RS: What effect do you think that replacing undersized speedsters Howard and Morrison with Wimbley and McClain will have on the Rushing defense?

BB: I don't think there'll be a noticeable impact. Wimbley's been a 3-4 linebacker his entire career, and he wasn't good against the run in Cleveland; it was one of the reasons they traded him. Our system always saw Kirk Morrison as an above-average linebacker, and I think that's something backed by what scouts have said; McClain's certainly talented, but the Raiders have utterly failed to develop their first-round picks over the past few years, so I wonder whether McClain will be any different.

Star-divide

RS: What effect do you expect to see from John Henderson and LaMarr Houston replacing the pass rushing Greg Ellis and Gerard Warren?

BB: I don't think you'll see much of a difference as far as pass rushers go; neither Houston or Henderson would be someone I'd expect to contribute a significant pass rush in 2010. The rush is going to have to come from Trevor Scott and Matt Shaughnessy, who should see single blocking across from Richard Seymour.

RS: One name that was missing from your list was Tyvon Branch. How does Tyvon project in 2010?

BB: I'm not sure which list you're referring to?

 

We're projecting Branch for 113 tackles, a sack, two interceptions, and a fumble recovery. I don't think that tackles here are a positive indicator for Branch's play; it's more that the run defense is so porous that Branch ends up as the first guy to the ballcarrier.

 

RS: How exactly did the Raiders outperform their Pythagorean Wins Projection in 2009? 5 victories compared to 2.9.

BB: Because they won a disproportionate amount of their close games. In games decided by less than a touchdown, the Raiders were 5-2. It would be nice to chalk that up to grit or something similar, but no team is consistently effective at winning close games; the Raiders were 1-2 in such games in 2008 and 2-4 in 2007. In other words, they got lucky.

RS: How do you gauge the effect of bringing in an Offensive Coordinator to call the plays instead of having the Head Coach call the plays, Coach the O-Line and be Head Coach?

BB: We've tried accounting for this in our projection system and haven't found it to exhibit a significant impact. I think it depends more upon the individual ability of the head coach/offensive coordinator than any other factor, and I don't think there's much evidence that Tom Cable is a particularly effective head coach or offensive coordinator.

RS: Finally, how will an improved rushing defense effect the overall performance of the defensive backfield? What effect would that have on the projected 4.5 wins?

BB: I don't think the rushing defense will have much to do with the play of the defensive backfield. It may put the team in better situations on third down, I suppose, but the Raiders were actually best on third down on defense a year ago. I think retaining an effective pass rush and hopefully getting some development out of Stanford Routt is the biggest thing the team can do.



RS: Thank you so much for providing all of the statistics that your outfit has compiled  for the 2009 and 2010 campaigns and thank you for taking a moment to shed some light on the plight of the Oakland Raiders.

Comment 51 comments  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

Well, this comment takes the prize ...

I think retaining an effective pass rush and hopefully getting some development out of Stanford Routt is the biggest thing the team can do*

I wasn’t buying what Barnwell was saying, but it wasn’t unreasonable until this remark. Anyway, it does make me appreciate Grad – recalling how it wasn’t at all luck in our winning those close games but heroic playmanship.

S-O-B: ITS HOW I ROLL, DEAL WITH IT.

by Sons-of-Blanda on Aug 2, 2010 7:14 PM PDT reply actions  

When I re-read it:

I wondered how long it would take for someone to point that out.

I will have the Final LaMarr interview up tomorrow. You, for one, will love it.

It is all about coming together as a team. At the end of the day, the team is all we have. - T. Branch 10-14-09

by Raymond St. Martin (Saint) on Aug 2, 2010 7:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

It was a tactful way of saying Routt is a liability

but more importantly, the guy understands the numbers and formulates a constructive argument with them. Right or wrong in his analysis he has a clue. Unlike sons of gaytard who uses numbers to try and pin productivity on race and other areas irrelevant to football.

by Al's Wingman on Aug 2, 2010 8:57 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

you tell me where sons

and we’ll grab this bastard by both arms and play “make a wish”….

I'll Get Inside Your FACE!

Yes, that me with Lois Griffin...

by VaderBDCRaider on Aug 2, 2010 9:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

These are your words cheesy words Al's wimpman from your whining BR bio (I know you hate me, fine, but hating Al Davis and your glee at the Raiders hardships brings my wrath to the brim even against a worm like you)

About Al’s Wingman
The reason for this blog is I was an Oakland Raiders season ticket holder for several years and felt the need to share my opinion publicly. I’m tired of the franchise crashing and burning in slow motion NFL Films style. Maybe I can’t stop it but I will call attention to who is causing it and offer some ironic hope where I can with my own ideas, humor and whatever else.
Bottom line is change must happen so *while we wait for Undead Al to go away (at least in theory he should be gone eventually) we’ll have fun along the way slamming the embarrasing facade that has become the Oakland Raiders
franchise – a once proud franchise that is now a laughing stock to all but those who have no clue.
I have no connection whatsoever to the Oakland Raiders organization, any of their booster clubs, former players, insiders or media. Everything I write about here is inspired by something either in the public domain or the history of football.*

S-O-B: ITS HOW I ROLL, DEAL WITH IT.

by Sons-of-Blanda on Aug 2, 2010 10:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

I love it

Let me watch

Win at all costs! Winning ugly is still winning! Remember the past and what got us to the top before. Jim Plunkett and winning ugly......enough said!

by TheLyleAlzadoPunch on Aug 3, 2010 4:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

I completely agree with him when he talks about the LB’s..Spot on there.

As for him saying Tyvon is only good because of our poor Rush-D, well, that deserves a big Fuck You there.

The only true wisdom consists in knowing that you know nothing.

by JaKe. on Aug 2, 2010 7:15 PM PDT reply actions  

+1000

a big hearty fuck you to bill barnwell and his number crunching bean counters and their stupid calculators…

I'll Get Inside Your FACE!

Yes, that me with Lois Griffin...

by VaderBDCRaider on Aug 2, 2010 9:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think

what he meant was – when your safeties are making all the tackles (inflated tackle stats), you got yourself a problem. It’s not a direct knock on TB, it’s simply that the opposing team just ran for 8 yrds.

by raiders4liffe on Aug 3, 2010 4:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

when the monster is running straight at the ball carrier

every play, all year long, he is in on those tackles. when Capn Kirk was holed by the guards at the 2nd level, TB was bringin the pain to stop them.

Tyvon Branch is a beast.

I'll Get Inside Your FACE!

Yes, that me with Lois Griffin...

by VaderBDCRaider on Aug 3, 2010 11:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

He really is an outsider

It sounds like he basically went off of typical Raider stereotypes. Didn’t sound very knowledgeable when talking about our players.

by duballers23 on Aug 2, 2010 7:29 PM PDT reply actions  

If I ever gambled on the Raiders again (and haven't since 2002) it would be this season. We are unreasonably undervalued

and it’s a big advantage for the team and for our retirement portfolios. The gaming market adjusts as the season rolls on of course but the basic fan perception is so skewed that we should be able to rake in returns on investments throughout the season. Just win, Baby – b/c we’ll be dogs for the most part.

S-O-B: ITS HOW I ROLL, DEAL WITH IT.

by Sons-of-Blanda on Aug 2, 2010 7:34 PM PDT reply actions  

the guy thinks that Scott is still a DE

He obviously did his homework. I supposed the Chargers are slated for 14 wins too, right?
“Campbell’s clearly the questionable player”
WTF?

I am here to inspire and light fires~~~Where there is smoke in the ears, there is me on the mind~~~

by B.A.Armstrong on Aug 2, 2010 7:34 PM PDT reply actions  

My opinion, Somebody elses words......

Statistics are never a reliable gauge of a team sport ( I.M.O. )

It’s leave out the ’ Blood, sweat, & tears’ We the fans can better judge OUR team.

So in the immortal words of Jake – " well, that deserves a big Fuck You there."

"think of the solution not the problem"

by bojackson34 on Aug 2, 2010 7:39 PM PDT reply actions  

I have my doubts now, unfortunately. As the saying goes: "The battles are won in the trenches"

I don’t see us winning that battle anymore, not with the same o-line of last year with two new late round rookies, not first or second round rookies…. (good to come for McClain and Houston though) But I foresee our offense still struggling, not the same as last year though because Campbell is more mobile same with Gradkowski. The run game will struggle though.

by Starburst. on Aug 2, 2010 7:51 PM PDT reply actions  

This is crap

I hate all these in-depth statistics. How about football knowledge and scouting. Did Barnell also consider whether Jason Campbell would play better with a vertical passing game. Did he ever once consider the running game struggled because Robert Gallery was hurt for 10 games. In 5 of the 6 games healthy, the Raiders rushed for 94 yards.

Did Barnwell ever watch Morrison play? Look up the Dallas Cowboy highlights. The middle linebacker in the 4-3 should be a playmaker. There’s a reason why the Raiders finished 29th in run defense. Also look at the fact that run stuffer John Henderson was brought in to replace Gerard Warren.

Did Barnwell also factor in scheduling. The Raiders happen to have one of the easier schedules in the league, with only the Colts, Texans, 49ers, and Dolphins as games we shouldn’t be favored in.

Also, I hate the part about luck. Wasn’t lucky that DHB dropped a wide open pass in the Kansas City Chiefs game, that costed his team the game (twice). Was it lucky that Louis Murphy had a TD taken away from him in the opener on a BS call? Was it lucky Bruce was able to pull off 2 (should’ve been 3) come back performances in the span of 3 weeks?

This guy is pure BS.

by Joshsports60 on Aug 2, 2010 7:56 PM PDT reply actions  

By the way, I meant “In 5 of the 6 games healthy, the Raiders rushed for 94 yards” at least. Try beating that explanation.

by Joshsports60 on Aug 2, 2010 7:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

As much as I disagree with his assessment

he has a point about the 5-2 in close games. That is tough to replicate and things like that have a tendency to even out.

On the plus side though, I see enough positive changes for the Raiders that even if that 5-2 evens out the Raiders should still be improved from last season. I expect a few victories by more than a TD this year.

Maynard for Jesus.

by Rich Langford on Aug 2, 2010 11:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

SERIOUSLY....

WHO SAYS, AWW THEY WERE JUST LUCKY?

MAYBE STEELERS FANS AND PHILLY FANS… WHEN WE BEAT EM…. OR SOME BEAN COUNTING DIPSHIT WHO WAS SHOWN TO BE A HALF-WIT AND NOT A VERY GOOD PROGNOSTICATOR OF THE RAIDERS….

I'll Get Inside Your FACE!

Yes, that me with Lois Griffin...

by VaderBDCRaider on Aug 3, 2010 12:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

That call was kinda bs for week 1

As much as I hated it at the time. I felt the refs were pretty consistant on that ruling and made a number of simliar calls during the season, much to my amazment. Thanks to the sunday ticket you can see an awful lot of games. I still hated the call at the time!

by samiam2112 on Aug 2, 2010 8:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's funny, though...

I honestly think they made a couple of calls like that throughout the season BECAUSE of that first game against SD. It just would not have looked right if they hadn’t. Either way, I also saw that call missed three or more times over the next few weeks (and I’m not saying that as a Raider fan but as a general football viewer).

by GSBoi86 on Aug 3, 2010 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

my endemic memory

says that if the zebras dont take away Murphy’s TD in game 1, we win… if morrison was recognizing that SD ran the same play 7 times in the last drive, the short under throw to Sproles, we win…

i say we do it this year. i gots the feeling deep in the gut that nay-saying shitpipes like this ass are shut up for good.

I'll Get Inside Your FACE!

Yes, that me with Lois Griffin...

by VaderBDCRaider on Aug 3, 2010 11:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

ROUTT!!??

I think any of our rookie DB’ s can to a better job than Routt,,,,,

by RAIDER PRIDE on Aug 2, 2010 8:22 PM PDT reply actions  

They have them winning 8.9 games and us winning 4.5! - they believe K.C. wins twice as many games as we will?!!!

This is really good for us (bad for outsiders, Mel Kiper and the rest of the nerds who get their football in mediated forms.

S-O-B: ITS HOW I ROLL, DEAL WITH IT.

by Sons-of-Blanda on Aug 2, 2010 8:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yesssirrreeee Bob!!!!

It is all about coming together as a team. At the end of the day, the team is all we have. - T. Branch 10-14-09

by Raymond St. Martin (Saint) on Aug 2, 2010 9:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm just keeping my mouth shut for now in NYC,

While all these Giants and Jets fans (MOSTLY JETS FANS) pop their Garbage. When the Silver and Black come back for revenge, THEN I’ll talk.

In Bruce We Trust

by NFLanalyzerfromhome on Aug 2, 2010 9:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

Another..........

gay azz Raider hater go ahead homie spew your hate get the rest of the league thinking that playing the Raiders will be a walk in the park. They will be surprised when the “predetermined losing team” puts egg all over their faces! Fuck all the haters!
GO RAIDERS!!!!!!!!

Bongsmoke

by BonGSmoKe on Aug 2, 2010 10:14 PM PDT reply actions  

+10000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

I'll Get Inside Your FACE!

Yes, that me with Lois Griffin...

by VaderBDCRaider on Aug 3, 2010 12:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

Jason Campbell alone

will give us more wins than last season.

New tackles to rotate the line with should help with keeping people healthy. Expect more yards out of our backs with a more solid line and a new blocking fullback.

DHB should at a minimum, get 5 times the yardage of last year; while the passing of Campbell should connect more with McFadden, and give Miller a pro-bowl level of yardage. Murphy should be solid once again.

As long as our defense is allowed flexibility in looks, and is quick to adjust, we’ll be fine.

by xville on Aug 2, 2010 10:55 PM PDT reply actions  

If ever there was a time that a prior years stats, makeup, even game film projected to look more different in the new year

It’s this year’s Oakland Raiders, but you just keep making your shitty predictions.

It’s innately woven into true Raider’s fans’ DNA: “This year’s the year, bitches!”

I know the D will be markedly better than last, and I know he didn’t watch the Raiders because he’d know calling Kirk an “above average MLB” is inaccurate. A solid defender? Yes. Capable of the occasional great play? Absolutely? What you want in a field captain, and liner up of defensive men, and keeper-in-liner???? No. Rolando will be an immediate upgrade in this aspect, that will flower with his development and the trust he establishes with his teammates.

You have to know how to read between the numbers, and he kinda gets that, but it’s clear he doesn’t watch the Raiders. Furthermore, our D wouldn’t get gashed for nearly as many huge plays with an offense.

"If your only ambition in life, is to be a better person; well, that's just the best ambition you can have..." Wayne "Rabbit" Bartholomew

by brhynno on Aug 2, 2010 11:20 PM PDT reply actions  

The guy is going off of stats.

There is no way for stat based predictions to account for the level of destruction the chaos of the Raiders and our fat deuce attributed to the woeful stats last year.

Really though, what the fuck?

What effect do you expect to see from John Henderson and LaMarr Houston replacing the pass rushing Greg Ellis and Gerard Warren?

BB: I don’t think you’ll see much of a difference as far as pass rushers go

Did he really think that was the question? He failed to address or give any credence to the fact that the Raiders defense should be exponentially better at stopping the run.

Also…

Our system always saw Kirk Morrison as an above-average linebacker, and I think that’s something backed by what scouts have said;

Were these the same scouts that wouldn’t trade or offer the 3rd round tender for Morrison while he sat available?

This for me was the capper:

don’t think the rushing defense will have much to do with the play of the defensive backfield. It may put the team in better situations on third down, I suppose, but the Raiders were actually best on third down on defense a year ago.

Uh, what? He supposes stopping the run may put the team in a better 3rd down position. Well, I suppose it would and in theory should fairly regularly. He also points out how the Raiders excel at 3rd down.

Wouldn’t this mean that the Raiders defense should be in a position in which it succeeds far more often than last year?

Maynard for Jesus.

by Rich Langford on Aug 2, 2010 11:23 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

+1

Hardcore Raiders Fans are 5150 .. (iBleedSilverNBlack)

by RaiderCreator5150 on Aug 3, 2010 7:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think a few answers made sense but overall seemed rather biased based on his own prognastications already made.

I agree with his assessment of both Campbell and Gradkowski. I disagree to a point with the close games assessment since those wins were with decent defense and solid QB play in most of them. I think he means being lucky based on the dropped INT in the Pittsburgh game that would have lost it for us but that is overall a real half-assed assessment. I really think the McClain and Morrison argument is BS since Morrison hasn’t had a pick or caused a fumble in probably 3 years. Also McClain seems like the type who will hold himself accountable moreso than Morrison ever did. Also waiting for Routt to develop in year 6 is ridiculous. How about talk about D-Mac or DHB’s development instead? Overall this is a half-ass assessment of our team in my opinion. Its almost like he didn’t care enough to take Saint seriously or give him a thoroughly researched interview which is sad since I imagine this is what this douche does for a living.

Cowards die many times before their deaths
The valiant never taste of death but once.
WILLIAM SHAKESPEARE, Julius Caesar

by TAW on Aug 3, 2010 7:39 AM PDT reply actions  

This is a giant piece of garbage, for several reasons

Nobody should pay attention to it.

"The A's have to be setting some record this year for simultaneously maximizing team quality and player anonymity. I guess that’s sort of their thing though." - Luke in MN

by hero66 on Aug 3, 2010 12:55 PM PDT reply actions  

Pretty much, yeah.

Cowards die many times before their deaths
The valiant never taste of death but once.
WILLIAM SHAKESPEARE, Julius Caesar

by TAW on Aug 3, 2010 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

There are flaws in the formula

First and foremost you cannot account for injury nor can you account for the intangibles such as the will to win. There are just certain things you cannot account for that any math formula does not work. Yeah we won some close ones and yes it does balance out. Look how many game over the years we have been totally fucked over on with calls in close games. The universe has balances and counter balances sometimes you get raped and some days you hit the jackpot.

Win at all costs! Winning ugly is still winning! Remember the past and what got us to the top before. Jim Plunkett and winning ugly......enough said!

by TheLyleAlzadoPunch on Aug 3, 2010 4:56 PM PDT reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation Blog about the Oakland Raiders.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Small
Raiders Salary Cap Issues
A-clockwork-orange-alex_small
OLB Demario Davis, OLB Tank carder, and SS/FS Kelcie McCray
Photo_small
Bush vs. Ben Tate
Raiders_wallpaper_by_sircle_small
Need a little help
Raiders_wallpaper_by_sircle_small
Raiders Release Routt
Small
CONFIRMED: Oakland Raider Cornerback Stanford Routt Gets Released
Small
Formula for Ranking Franchises All-Time?
Dscf1428_small
Breaking News! Raiders Retain Al Saunders! A great decision!
Oakland-raiders-logo_small
My take on the defense this offseason
Small
Saunders staying with Raiders

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >


Editors

Sunshine_small Raymond St. Martin (Saint)

Moderators

Raiders_logo_small TheRaiderWay

Westyule_small Sons-of-Blanda

Editorial Staff

Ka1z3r_small KA1Z3R

Raiders_small LiveAdam

_the_beast__reece_small brhynno

Richraven-irish_small RDreamer

Contributors

Small Travis Goethel 50