FanPost

Proof the Broncos are going to fizzle out

I understand that the Donkeys have a favorable schedule. However, just like the wildcat a few years ago, the Tebow offense is progressively worse. Let's take a look at the facts.

Against Oakland, the Broncos (with that funky offense) ran for 299 yards on 39 carries. This comes out to a 7.7 YPC average. That is 1.4 YPC more than the Raiders usually give up. Keep that number in mind. The Broncos won the game by 14 with a +3 turnover ratio. Their break for this game was the punt return TD that sealed the Raiders' fate.

Against Kansas City, the Broncos ran for 244 yards on 55 carries. That is a 4.4 YPC average. That is 0.2 YPC more than the Chiefs usually give up. The Broncos win the game by 7 with only 2 completions. Their break for this game was Tyler Palko coming in for the injured Matt Cassel. Cassel isn't good, but he's certainly better than Palko.

Against New York, the Broncos ran for 125 yards on 34 carries. That is a 3.2 YPC average. That is 0.7 YPC LESS than the Jets usually give up. I think you guys can see a pattern at this point. The Broncos win the game by 4 on a late TD run by Tebow. Their break for this game was Mark Sanchez throwing an interception for a TD with a 10-3 lead at the time.

Against San Diego, the Broncos ran for 208 yards on 51 carries. That is a 4.1 TPC average. That is 0.2 LESS than the Chargers usually give up. The Broncos win the game by 3 in overtime. Their break for this game was Nick Novak missing 2 field goals including the game winner.

Jump over for my conclusion...

During the Broncos' 4 game winning streak, their running game has gotten progressively worse, their margin of victory has shortened, and they continue to get unusual breaks. Only .013% of punts this season have been returned for touchdowns, however, at the most convenient time, the Broncos get a punt return TD. As I stated before, Cassel going down was definitely a fluke. As for the Jets game, Mark Sanchez decides to throw the worst pass in the history of the NFL. That was actually the first time in his career he has thrown a pick 6 (I believe?). Nick Novak is not a great kicker but it's rare to see any kicker miss two field goals in a regular season, home game.

With this having been said, I do realize that the Broncos defense has played exceptionally well. However, it's only a matter of time until these breaks start going against them. The reason they are winning under Tebow is because he doesn't turn the ball over. That means that any turnover Denver's defense gets is like playing with house money. When teams play Denver it is not about stopping the run; it's about scoring and forcing turnovers.

With McGahee (lower leg) and Miller (hand) banged up, I think Minnesota should win this game by double digits, even without Peterson. Ponder is improving every week, and their weakness is their secondary, which the Broncos cannot exploit. I don't think they can beat Chicago either because by then, Caleb Hanie will have his feet wet, and have a better feel for the offense. This would put them at 6-7 going into the New England game which is virtually unwinnable. Sitting at 6-8, the Tebow-haters will rise up and reality will be restored.

I think Tebow is a great kid and I wish him all the success in the world; just not in Denver.

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