Lots of people have been talking about playoff possibilities so I created this basic spreadsheet that allows you to determine the Raiders' chances of getting in depending on how you think the games this weekend will go. Here's the link:
Here's how it works: Type in the probability of how you think each game that affects the Raiders, including the Raiders game, will end. For example, if you think the Raiders have a 75% chance of winning, you'll type 75% into the "Raiders Win Prob" row. Every probability is in terms of how it will HELP the Raiders. So since we want the Bengals, Titans, and Broncos to lose, you'd be typing in the probability of those teams LOSING. This only takes into account our probability of making it as a wild card OR division winner, and does not weigh those probabilities against each other.
Just a couple notes before you get started. PLEASE READ FIRST!!!
1) The only way I could figure out how to post this was as a google doc, which is annoying since multiple people can be editing it at once. If anyone can find a way for me to attach it as an excel doc so you can just download it, that would be great.
2) Since it is a public doc, after you're done please RESET ALL PROBABILITIES to 50% and DO NOT change the gray box, which is the probability calculator (the formulas work on their own and will get screwed up if you mess with them).
Have fun and feel free to report your findings below! You'll see when you open it that if the chances of every game going our way are 50%, we have a 34.375% chance of making it (barely more than 1 in 3).