FanPost

Darren McFadden by the Numbers

I have just been looking at Darren McFadden's numbers during this offseason that may last until next year.  Some interesting things to note: McFadden just finished his third year in the league so some of these patterns are related to his injury problems and the Raiders mid-season (post bye week) struggles. Jump over for the numbers....

Part 1: Remember when L.T. used to kill us game after game? Could McFadden be our version of LT against Denver. Look at this numbers

For this first section keep in mind that all the percentages are highs for McFadden. All are against Denver.

  • Of McFadden's 15 career TDs 6 have come against Denver (40%).  He did have four in one game this past year (2010)
  • 24% of McFadden's career rushing yards have come against Denver
  • McFadden has 3,050 career yards (rushing and recieving). 19% of that total comes from Denver games

Part 2:  Vs the rest of the AFC West — not much of a surprise here due to the fact that McFadden plays or should play against San Diego, Denver and KC twice a year.

  • 13.6% of McFadden's career yardage comes against Kansas City (remember he has 3,050 career yards 
  • 9 of McFadden's career touchdowns comes against Denver, KC and the Chargers (60%) 
  • 27% of McFadden's career receiving yards comes versus the AFC West.

Part 3: The rest of the league

  • Excluding the AFC West teams McFadden hasn't had as much success against the rest of the league 
  • 6 of his 15 touchdowns come against the rest of the league BUT half of those came in one game against the Jaguars. So, if we exclude the AFC West teams and the Jags, Darren McFadden has scored just 3 touchdowns against the rest of the league (Pats, Cardinals and Titans) Just 20% of his touchdowns come against the rest of league in 22 games appearences.

Part 4: Is McFadden a road warrior?

  • 14 of his 15 career touchdowns have come on the road. When you consider this number it seems astounding to me. That's 93% of his 15 career touchdowns.   
  • That means McFadden only has one career touchdown in 19 home games. This sole touchdown came during his rookie season 12/14/2008 against the Patriots. ZERO home touchdowns in 2009 and 2010 for Darren McFadden.
  • McFadden's rushing yardage totals at home and on the road are nearly even with 947 at home and 1066 on the road. Yet it is still interesting to note that he still has more career rushing yards on the road.     
  • Receiving yardage totals for McFadden so far is the exact opposite of his career rushing numbers.  631 at home and 406 on the road. 60% of his recieving career totals are at home.  
  • All three of McFadden's career receiving touchdowns have come in road games.

Part 5: Winner versus loser

  • Nothing too outstanding here. 58% of his career rushing yards have come in the 15 games that the Raiders have won with McFadden as part of the Raider backfield.  
  • Interesting to note that McFadden's career yards (rushing and receiving combined) are nearly identical in both cases. 1,565 yards acquired on the road and 1,485 yard acquired at home. Note the higher numbers on the road which are reflected in the fact that McFadden acquires more receiving yards on the road than at home.

Part 6:  Monthly Breakdown — here are McFadden's rushing yards numbers which reflect not only the Raiders struggled in midseason games recently but also his numerous injuries

  • September: 765 yards rushing, 171 yards receiving and 4 total touchdowns   
  • October: 390 rushing yards, 192 receiving yards and 4 total touchdowns       
  • November: 228 yards rushing and 222 yards receiving, 2 total touchdowns (both rushing)       
  • December 621 yards rushing, 452 yards receiving and 5 total touchdowns.    
  • Based on this it appears that McFadden starts off hot and finishes hot. Interesting note to remember when considering him for your fantasy team.

Part 7: Not a prime time player:

  • In 2 career Monday Night games McFadden has just 114 yards rushing and 36 yards receiving. 
  • ZERO touchdowns. Thursday Night he is barely better. In 2 games he has 23 yards rushing and 51 yards receiving. ZERO touchdowns.   
  • In close games (games ending with a final of 7 points or less) McFadden has and 5 touchdowns and 1,331 yards from scrimmage in 17 attempts.
  • Still he obviously does better in games with a final margin of 15+ points due to the fact that Oakland is leading and he is getting the ball OR the Raiders are losing and he is getting the ball even more. 
  • In 17 games with a 15+ margin he has 1,014 yards rushing and 503 receiving.  10 of his 15 touchdowns have come in these 15+ games.  McFadden has a 6-11 record in 15+ final margin games with Oakland.

Part 8: Struggles vs. NFC  

  • In 7 games he has only 623 combined yards and just one touchdown. 
  • Just 21% of his career rushing yardage comes against NFC teams, Just 6% of his career touchdowns come against NFC teams.  This sole touchdown was scored this year against the Cardinals (another road game).     

All of these numbers are not about myself standing on some perch picking on a guy who is obviously getting better with each passing year. As I mentioned earlier...McFadden is still young and there will be more yards and touchdowns to come. It's tough comparing eras but lets consider this "fantasy".

Lets compare Marcus Allen's first three years with the Raiders with Darren McFadden's.

Allen (due to a strike year in 1981)

  • 41 games
  • 4,628 combined rushing and recieving yards
  • 43 Touchdowns (WOW)
  • 112 combined average for rushing and recieving yards per game.
  • McFadden (remember the injuries)
  • 38 games
  • 3,050 combined rushing and recieving yards
  • 15 touchdowns

Wow, some big differences in numbers there despite McFadden playing in three less games. But a few things to note. Allen played on a better team which had a great defense so he got more carriers and more opportunities.  Likewise Allen did share come carries with guys like Kenny King but McFadden gives up more carries to Bush.

Consider:

  • Allen had 853 total attempts in his 41 games. He averaged 20 total attempts (rushing and receiving) per game.
  • McFadden has 537 total attempts in 38 games. He averages just 14 attempts (rushing and receiving) per game.
  • 80 combined average for rushing and receiving yards per game.
  • To beat Allen's franchise best 8,545 in 145 career games (58.9 average per game). Remember Allen sat the bench a lot between 1987-1993. McFadden would have to raise his rushing yardage average per game. McFadden averages 53 rushing yards per game on average. Doesn't sound like much of a difference.
  • Marcus Allen played 11 years with the Raiders. If I take away the 38 games that McFadden has played from Allen's career totals and average it out I think I can get what McFadden will finish with if he plays for the Raiders in 145 career games. Here goes (First 145-38=107).
  • With 107 games left if McFadden maintains his 53 rushing yards per game he will finish with 5,671 placing him third on the Raiders all-time rushing list (behind both Allen and Mark van Eeghen). 

Just a quick edit for June 3, 2011.  The above portion was published a few days back.

2010 a fluke?

In 2010 DMC had career highs in every major category.  57% of his career rushing yards have come in 2010.  Nearly 49% of his career recieving yards came in 2010.  So did 58% of his rushing touchdowns and 100% of his recieving touchdowns.  His week 1 recieving touchdown against Tennessee was the first recieving touchdown of his career.  48% of his receptions came in 2010 as well.   So did 55% of his career rushing/recieving yards combined.  So Darren had an AWESOME year and lets hope this is a trend that just gets better and better as the years pass.

Fascinating stuff.

Sources:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/McFaDa00.htm

http://www.raiders.com/history/career-leaders.html

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleMa00.htm

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