Pirate Booty: Nnamdi Asomugha's Projected Impact on Various Teams Records, and Much Much More

Arr Mateys! Today be a fine day for Raiders like us. The Booty be bountiful and it only be getting bountiful(er?) from here. Lots of talk and table setting in today's treasure chest. The Raiders should be filtering into the facility in the next couple of days, and team officials are no doubt working the phones with agents around the clock.

So read up, and buckle up, we are in for a wild ride! Jump over for the booty.....

 

The 1976 Oakland Raiders slowly fading away - Silver And Black Pride
As you have heard Raiders cornerback Skip Thomas passed away yesterday. RIP Mr. Thomas!

Oakland Raiders Get Salary Cap Relief in New CBA - Silver And Black Pride

Raiders Undrafted Free Agent Open Thread - Silver And Black Pride

A Look At The Week For the Oakland Raiders: Free Agency, Cuts and Playbooks! - Silver And Black Pride

Michael Bush Is A Restricted Free Agent: Would Net 1st round Pick If Signed Away - Silver And Black Pride

Oakland Raiders Unrestricted Free Agents - Silver And Black Pride

With lockout over, Oakland Raiders have big issues to tackle - San Jose Mercury News
"We're still on track for players to report on Wednesday, as scheduled," senior executive John Herrera said.

Raiders Roster Ramblings

For the foreseeable future the Booty is going to be almost exclusively roster ramblings, and that is just fine with me.

Ahh...the world of definites!

Michael Bush officially is a RFA - AFC West Blog - ESPN
Meanwhile, expect this week to be off-the-charts busy. Teams can start talking to prospective free agents Tuesday morning. They cannot sign players until Friday. I talked to several agents Monday, and they expect this process to be the wild, wild West. One agent said teams and players will have to live up to the “honor system.” Handshake agreements will be made, but nothing will be official until Friday. I expect to see some controversy this week. I could see an agreement reported and then another team come in and sweeten the pot for a player before he signs. It’s going to be chaos.

I could not disagree more with the following article.

Raiders all set at offensive tackle | July
The positional change also changes the way the Raiders will attack free agency. Presumably now, they appear to be locked in on developing Veldheer and Campbell into their bookend offensive linemen during the course of this season. Bringing in rookie center Stefen Wisniewski gives them potentially three out of the five starters they need on the offensive line. Also, as pointed out by my colleague, L. Dizzle, Hue Jackson has hinted at the idea of moving Samson Satele from center to guard. Throw Daniel Loper into that mix at left guard and you could be looking at the opening day offensive line. But let’s not count out LSU rookie Joseph Barksdale either. There are also rumors floating that the team will re-sign Khalif Barnes and release Cooper Carlisle when they are able to do so.

The above mentioned starting offensive line scares the piss out of me.

 

Are You Ready for Some Football? | NBC Bay Area
The team has to decide about bringing restricted free agent Michael Bush back to the backfield and it must move quick to retain free agent tight end Zach Miller, who almost reached an extension with the Raiders before the lock out. On defense the Raiders most likely will lose All-Pro cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha but the team was active before the lockout began retaining its own players, including Richard Seymour and Stanford Routt.

I don't think there is much of a decision about bringing Bush back. More Bush, please!<--- if I had a dollar.

More overviews:

2011 NFL Free Agency: Rules, Schedule And Oakland Raiders Plans - SB Nation Bay Area
Among those names, Samson Satele, Mario Henderson and Jon Condo are the only ones that might surprise anyone. However, with the drafting of the new Wisniewski, Satele became expendable. Similarly, with Jared Veldheer having a respectable rookie season, Mario Henderson was suddenly a man without a role.

Unless both of these players are willing to sign for small salaries, their days with the Raiders are all but over. Jon Condo on the other hand is a different question. Condo was a pro-bowl special teams player, but in the end, he is expendable if the Raiders cannot afford to sign him. It would be great if they could keep him, but it is by no means the end of the world.

Talking Nnamdi

I love the following! This is the kind of numbers you see all the time with baseball, but seldom with football. It is an inexact science, but it is still a solid attempt at putting value in terms of projected wins and losses.

Projecting impact of NFL free agents Nnamdi Asomugha, Ray Edwards, DeAngelo Williams - ESPN
Nnamdi Asomugha Asomugha is rightly considered the top free agent in this class. The "arguably" is often dismissed when considering whether the longtime Raider is the best pure cover corner in the league. And with a projection that says he could give the woeful Texans passing defense a lift, and deliver an 11 percent bump in playoff likelihood with a move to the AFC South, he could be worth every penny Houston would spend on him -- particularly with what should be an improved pass rush in Houston, with new coaching and personnel in that department.

But Asomugha alone, we know, can't guarantee wins -- the Raiders' eight wins in 2010 were the most (by three) by a team that he's ever been a part of.

Philadelphia Eagles WINS WIN% WIN DIV PLAYOFFS
Baseline 9.8 61.3% 49.7% 70.6%
w/ Nnamdi Asomugha 10.3 64.4% 55.0% 76.3%
Impact 0.5 3.1% 5.3% 5.7%
Washington Redskins WINS WIN% WIN DIV PLAYOFFS
Baseline Forecast 5.8 36.3% 2.6% 6.9%
w/ Nnamdi Asomugha 6.1 38.1% 3.4% 8.1%
Impact 0.3 1.9% 0.8% 1.2%
Houston Texans WINS WIN% WIN DIV PLAYOFFS
Baseline Forecast 7.5 46.9% 18.5% 25.5%
w/ Nnamdi Asomugha 8.1 50.6% 26.9% 36.6%
Impact 0.6 3.8% 8.4% 11.1%

 

This set of projections isn't meant to simply lay waste to the idea that free agency can truly pay off -- a 10-plus percentage increase in playoff chance improvement from the addition of a single player to a 53-man Sunday roster is actually extremely impressive. But it should serve as a reminder: The personnel questions that face NFL teams are extremely nuanced. If Houston's defensive problems don't disappear with the addition of a player of Asomugha's talent, it'd just be further evidence. Nnuanced indeed.

 

 

Best fits for NFL free agents Nnamdi Asomugha, Ray Edwards, Santonio Holmes - ESPN
Zach Miller to the Bills:

Years of Robert Royal and Matt Campbell campaigns may have dulled you to this, but a long time ago -- back when the Bills actually won football games -- Jay Riemersma gave Buffalo a credible receiving threat at tight end. 

The Raiders seem very determined to keep Miller, but if he can somehow free himself, he would be a big boost for Chan Gailey's spread attack. The Bills need to be in asset accumulation mode while they wait for a young quarterback to take the reins away from Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Still just 25, Miller fits with that plan and would give Quarterback Who May Or May Not Be Named Andrew Luck, Landry Jones or Matt Barkley a reliable outlet valve in the 2012 season. Buffalo would likely have to overpay for Miller's services, but it should have plenty of cash socked away to do so.

 

Asomugha will hit the free-agent market for the first time after Al Davis' sound strategy of "make sure to get it in writing that we can't use the franchise tag on our best player" shockingly backfired.

Asomugha's value is hard to quantify in counting numbers, as he had no sacks, interceptions or fumble recoveries last year. The reason? Nobody throws at him. Per our charting project, despite starting 14 games for the Raiders last season, Asomugha was targeted on just 7.9 percent of opponent's passes.

To put that into context, 2009 Defensive Player of the Year Charles Woodson has drawn a little more than 14 percent of his opponent's passes in each of his past three seasons. Terence Newman was terrible in Dallas last season and has always been a bit overrated, while Mike Jenkins regressed strongly from a promising second year. The Cowboys have the money and the need. If they can convince Asomugha that they can compete for a Super Bowl this year, he seems like an ideal fit in Dallas.

 

Is Nnam a risk? At $18 million a season, Jim Brown and Hercules love child would be a risk.

Nnamdi Asomugha, Michael Huff on list of top 10 riskiest NFL free agents - ESPN
10. CB Nnamdi Asomugha

Asomugha is a terrific cornerback, but an $18 million per year price tag is a premium cost that makes sense only if the player is far ahead of his competition. That may not be the case with Asomugha. Look at this comparison with Johnathan Joseph: Elite CB Comparison Comparing Asomugha and Joseph's statistics from the past two years reveals that the gap between them isn't that large.

Joseph has been targeted nearly three times as often, yet has a lower YPA total. This isn't to say that Joseph is the better cornerback, but if he can be had for half the cost of Asomugha (or less), it could be a move that provides much more bang for the buck.

6. S Michael Huff Huff can do many things well (94 tackles, four sacks and three interceptions in 2010), but he has one glaring coverage weakness: He isn't good at covering receivers one-on-one. 

Last year he had 23 plays in which he was assigned this type of coverage, and he allowed 16 completions and a ridiculously high 11.9 YPA on those passes. The plus is that Huff did quite well on plays in which he gave over-the-top coverage help to another defender (only three completions in 14 passes), so it may just be a matter of getting him on a team that will keep him away from direct coverage.

Wish List

I like Josh Wilson. He is a solid cover corner. He is short, but he is blazing fast, and he is very solid in man. He is an adequate No. 2 and a stud nickel, and he should be relatively cheap.

Quintin Mikell, Steve Breaston and Dawan Landry among best NFL free agent bargains - ESPN
5. Josh Wilson

Baltimore obtained Wilson from the Seahawks for a fifth-round pick, and he excelled for them while healthy last season, collecting three interceptions -- including one from Matt Schaub that he returned for a game-winning touchdown. The Ravens decided to draft Jimmy Smith in the first round this year, though, making Wilson somewhat expendable. His play on the field has been pretty stellar the past couple of seasons, but his history of bumps and bruises will likely drive his price down. He and Rogers would have been the best cornerbacks on the market after Leigh Bodden last offseason, but they had the misfortune to be in the same crop as Nnamdi Asomugha, Johnathan Joseph, Ike Taylor and Antonio Cromartie this year.


Around the AFC West

Denver Broncos

Twitter / @JosinaAnderson: Breaking News: Multiple So ...
Multiple Sources: #Broncos inform RB Correll Buckhalter he will be released. There's a chance he can return for less money.

I think the above move is further evidence that the Broncos are going to make adding an RB a top priority in free agency.

Kansas City Chiefs

I am not particularly fond of the notion that the Chiefs have a lot of money to spend in free agency. Hopefully they spend it all on one player who plans on quitting on his team as soon as he gets a big contract.

NFL Free Agency 2011: Chiefs Not Expected To Sign Any Of Top 10 Free Agents - SB Nation Kansas City
On the flip side, Clayton also believes KC will stand pat when it comes to the top 10. That’s a direct conflict to the understanding that the Chiefs will have to spend around $35 million to get up to the new salary cap floor. Nnamdi Asomugha heads the Top 10 free agents list, and while the Chiefs will not be interested in Asomugha compared to other teams, they could be in the mix for a defensive end like Cullen Jenkins of the Packers or a big name receiver like Santonio Holmes.

San Diego Chargers

A.J. Smith of San Diego Chargers treads lightly on Vincent Jackson's future - ESPN
"Vincent is a great player for us and we drafted him with high expectations," Chargers general manager A.J. Smith told the San Diego Union Tribune on Monday night. "As you know, we have decided to move slowly toward any long-term commitment at this time. But if he and his agents' five-year, $50 million position remains steadfast, the odds are extremely high that he will be headed elsewhere. We have so many players to consider -- both short-term and long-term over the next two years."

Around the Lockout

Lockout? What lockout? That was so yesterday!

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