FanPost

Raiders Passer Rating Differentials since 2000

I was reading an article on SI.com by Kerry J. Byrne about Passer Rating Differential. Although this article is based on the Green Bay Packers, even the biggest hater of the Packers would probably find it interesting. Mr. Byrne has thoroughly convinced me that Passer Rating Differential (PRD) is a very important stat in the NFL. PRD is when you take your seasons average Passer Rating for the year and you subtract your opponents average passer rating for the year.

For example: 2010 Raiders average QB rating was 77.5 and our opponents average QB rating against us was 85.6. Therefore we take 77.5 and subtract 85.6 which equals -8.1. Therefore, the PRD was -8.1. That isn't that horrible but we do NOT want our opponents having a better passer rating against us than our QB had against them.

After reading the above article and having been convinced of the importance of this stat, I decided I wanted to find out what the Raiders stats have looked like since 2000. I figured it would be a good way to pass the time. I also figured that it would not look good in the years after we lost the SB to Gruden in the 2002 season. I was correct in both assumptions. 

Check out the PRD stats over this past decade and the season's record for that season after the jump....

    Season    OAK      Opp       PRD     Record

  • 2010 ~  77.5  -  85.6  =  -8.1     (8-8)
  • 2009 ~  62.0  -  89.5  =  -27.5   (5-11)
  • 2008 ~  71.6  -  79.3  =  -7.7     (5-11)
  • 2007 ~  70.9  -  78.9  =   -8       (4-12)
  • 2006 ~  56.2  -  74.1  =  -17.9   (2-14)
  • 2005 ~  76.0  -  90.7  =  -24.7   (4-12)
  • 2004 ~  76.1  -  99.4  =  -23.3   (5-11)
  • 2003 ~  65.0  -  87.3  =  -22.3   (4-12)
  • 2002 ~  97.2  -  77.3  =  +19.9  (11-5) *Super Bowl
  • 2001 ~  95.5  -  70.5  =  +25     (10-6) *Playoffs
  • 2000 ~  92.0  -  80.4  =  +11.6  (12-4) *Playoffs

 There are some interesting things that I have noticed out of this. First off, our worst Differential rating (09) was not during our worst year (06). Second, our worst year record wise was during our worst year for our own QB rating. Also, our worst year was the year before Jamarcus Russell. That for those of us that remember, is a season that we really wish that we did not remember! Sad that we went through a season with that much ineptitude at the QB position, just to be delivered into the worst draft selection of all time in Jamarcus. We should all take a moment to slap ourselves on the back for surviving those times!

Another thing that I noticed was that our best year was not our last Super Bowl. That does not surprise me much because at that time our team was still fresh from Jon Gruden's teachings but he had already moved on. Our best year in this stat should be with our best coach. Our best coach was Gruden.  Look at the ridiculous drop in both QB rating and PRD from 02 to 03 after Gruden demolished Callahan in the super bowl. From 97.2 in our QB rating to 65.0 and from a PRD of positive 19.9 to one of our worst  years at PRD of negative 22.3. I can not describe how much I despise Bill "I was just scratching my neck" Callahan. I will not even try to go into that here but instead show the coaches PRD averages for the coaches that we have had since 1998:

  •  Tom Cable (08-2010) ~ -14.3
  •  Lane Kiffin (07) ~ -8.0
  •  Art Shell (06) ~ -17.9
  •  Norv Turner (04-05) ~ -24
  •  Bill Callahan (02-03) ~ -2.4
  •  Jon Gruden (98-2001) ~ +10.6

(I will note that I included the 08 total in Tom Cable's stats because he was there for more of the season. I apologize for that because it does make the stats a little skewed for Lane and Tom. However, I did not go through each individual game's QB rating because the site I used, Pro-Football-Reference.com, did not have the QB ratings for each game.)

First off, I really wish that Jon Gruden and Al Davis could have worked things out. He is the only coach on this list with a positive average for Passing Rating Differential. That is just one of the MANY reasons that Jon Gruden has been the best coach in my lifetime (since 85) for the Raiders. Bill Callahan also has a good PRD rating, but I am bias against him. Therefore, in my opinion, his success in this category in 02 was an anomaly that can really be credited to the players performing well and Jon Gruden's influence on the team. The giant fall from 02 to 03 in PRD is my basis for that opinion and I think shows Callahan's true coaching ability.

The other thing I noticed was the increase in PRD from 09-2010 during Tom Cable's tenure.   I attribute this to Hue Jackson coming aboard and the abandoning of Jamarcus Russell. Tom Cable also helped this with his player friendly attitude but I just feel like the improvement in our offense was directly related to the arrival of Hue Jackson. Hopefully, if I am right on that, we will see an additional increase this year in that stat. If not I will have to give Tom Cable more credit than I currently am, but I do not anticipate having to do that.

Now to show the effect of PRD across the rest of the league more accurately I am posting some charts that I found on coldhardfootballfacts.com. This better shows the relation between a teams success and their PRD:

 

Final 2010 Passer Rating Differential

 

Team

Off. PR

Def. PR

Net

1

Green Bay

98.93

67.23

+31.7

2

New England

109.76

81.23

+28.53

3

San Diego

101.85

76.14

+25.71

4

Pittsburgh

95.25

73.78

+21.47

5

Tampa Bay

96.25

77.57

+18.68

6

Baltimore

93.64

76.34

+17.3

7

Kansas City

90.06

78.08

+11.98

8

Philadelphia

92.06

80.61

+11.45

9

Atlanta

90.80

82.19

+8.61

10

New Orleans

90.81

83.16

+7.65

11

Chicago

79.49

74.39

+5.1

12

N.Y. Giants

85.28

80.53

+4.75

13

Indianapolis

91.79

91.7

+0.09

14

N.Y. Jets

76.53

77.05

-0.52

15

Dallas

90.39

92.75

-2.36

16

Cincinnati

82.37

85.16

-2.79

17

St. Louis

76.46

80.22

-3.76

18

Tennessee

82.59

86.38

-3.8

19

Denver

86.75

93.02

-6.27

20

Detroit

82.00

89.17

-7.16

21

Oakland

77.4

85.56

-8.15

22

Houston

92.02

100.49

-8.48

23

Miami

75.5

85.03

-9.53

24

Cleveland

74.98

84.83

-9.85

25

San Francisco

79.36

89.96

-10.6

26

Washington

77.99

89.62

-11.63

27

Jacksonville

83.43

98.53

-15.11

28

Buffalo

75.16

92.58

-17.41

29

Seattle

72.04

89.69

-17.65

30

Minnesota

67.65

86.39

-18.74

31

Arizona

60.49

83.55

-23.06

32

Carolina

56.96

80.96

-23.99

 

 

 

Final 2009 Passer Rating Differential

 

Team

Off. PR

Def. PR

Net

1

New Orleans

106.02

68.58

+37.44

2

Green Bay

101.78

68.83

+32.95

3

San Diego

103.13

84.24

+18.89

4

Baltimore

87.35

71.95

+15.41

5

Indianapolis

95.43

80.64

+14.80

6

Minnesota

107.25

92.52

+14.73

7

Pittsburgh

98.13

83.45

+14.68

8

Philadelphia

92.05

77.64

+14.40

9

Dallas

97.56

83.48

+14.08

10

New England

95.55

81.82

+13.73

11

Arizona

89.65

76.41

+13.24

12

Houston

96.26

83.24

+13.02

13

Buffalo

71.71

61.15

+10.56

14

Denver

84.41

74.98

+9.43

15

Cincinnati

82.74

73.58

+9.16

16

San Francisco

80.78

76.24

+4.54

17

N.Y. Jets

62.2

58.84

+3.37

18

Washington

85.55

85.72

-0.17

19

Carolina

70.45

71.69

-1.24

20

N.Y. Giants

93.15

95.14

-1.99

21

Atlanta

80.42

89.47

-9.05

22

Jacksonville

83.16

95.98

-12.82

23

Miami

73.31

86.92

-13.61

24

Kansas City

70.85

87.09

-16.23

25

Tennessee

74.89

91.19

-16.29

26

Chicago

75.63

92.27

-16.65

27

Seattle

76.73

93.43

-16.69

28

Tampa Bay

59.83

87.18

-27.35

29

Oakland

62.01

89.72

-27.71

30

St. Louis

63.91

96.9

-32.99

31

Cleveland

55.84

90.56

-34.72

32

Detroit

58.14

107.58

-49.43

 

I would like to point out that each of the last two years that the top team in PRD won the super bowl. Also, the bottom team each year had the worst record. I can see a direct correlation between PRD and a successfull season. Also, a neat stat that Byrne mentions is that 56% (40-71) of the champions of the last 71 years were ranked 1st or 2nd in PRD. I think I have taken up enough of your time. Lets hope Hue Jackson takes this stat seriously, and lets hope we see a dramatic increase in it as well. A 21st ranking in any important category, which was our 2010 PRD, will not be good enough for our Hue Jackson lead 2011 Oakland Raiders.

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