Friday Football Foretelling: Week 4, Raiders vs. Patriots

by RDreamer on Sep 30, 2011 2:13 PM PDT

Greetings Raider Nation! It is I, RaiderDamus, the sultan of sage, the prince of prescience, the dean of divining, and the World's Freshest Man. I come to you today to tell you what the Great Unknown has shown me concerning the upcoming Raider game. After the jump, all will be revealed to you as it has been to me.

Do you remember the old NES game Tecmo Bowl? If so, you may remember that Bo Jackson is possibly the greatest and most powerful video game character of all time. If not, let me refresh your memory:

Bo Jackson Tecmo Super Bowl for Nintendo: Highlights from a 99-0 Victory- Bo Knows (via lichiro131)

This game will sort of be like that, with Darren McFadden playing the role of Bo Jackson. The Patriots will not be able to stop him, and although the Patriots will put up a lot of points themselves, their run defense will be shredded to pieces. However, because the Patriots are so proficient on offense, the Raiders will be forced to take their shots through the air with moderate success. Jason Campbell will throw for a couple touchdowns, but will be picked once or twice. This game will have a lot of points off turnovers- at least 20 between the two teams.

The Giants in Super Bowl XLII showed how to deal with a Patriots team that looked unstoppable- rush the passer without mercy and crush Tom Brady early and often. The Bills showed another way to deal with them- get a lot of lucky tipped-ball interceptions and return them for touchdowns. One of these is something you can game-plan, the other is a result of blind random fortune. The fates surely smiled upon the Bills last week, and still they barely won. Yet win they did, and this Patriots team no longer seems the unstoppable juggernaut they appeared to be during Weeks 1 and 2.

The Raiders CAN win this game. They probably shouldn't, but they CAN. They can do it by rushing, rushing, and rushing some more, playing a grinding ball-control offense and keeping the ball out of Tom Brady's grubby little hands. They CAN do this because that is the style of play the Raiders run well, are accustomed to running, and set out to run every single game these days. Will they?

They will try. Sometimes they will succeed. The problem is, their defense is not good. Tom Brady has a quick release, quicker even than Ryan Fitzpatrick's, and he will pass before we can hit him (we may hit him anyway, but that is against the rules) and the Patriots will score. A lot. A LOT.

Wes Welker has been a revelation this year. He is currently the best wide receiver in fantasy football. Rob Gronkowski is an uncoverable nightmare. Deion Branch is kinda bad but he is fast. If you leave him uncovered, he will make plays. The Raiders will have a difficult time adequately covering all the Patriot receivers- and Aaron Hernandez isn't even going to play.

That being said, the Patriots have absolutely nobody who can cover 1) Denarius Moore, 2) Chaz Schilens, 3) Kevin Boss, or 4) Darren McFadden out of the backfield. The Patriots D has been abysmal. These guys made Chad Henne look like Kurt Warner circa 2001.

The Black Hole is going to be a huge factor in this game. It will be rocking, and it will be loud. This game could go either way. The fates have seen fit to show me little more than that this game will be exciting and that you should take the Over bet in this game as the O/U is 54 1/2 points. It is left up to me to predict a final score on my own. I can see the Raiders winning but I will predict Patriots 44, Raiders 41.

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Raiderdamus 1-2 about to be 1-3

by angelraiders on Sep 30, 2011 2:28 PM PDT via mobile reply actions

Heh heh, nice

@WorldBLee

by worldblee on Sep 30, 2011 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions

time to put up or shut up

Everyone has a plan ’till they get punched in the mouth.
-Mike Tyson

by R8rnation on Sep 30, 2011 11:58 PM PDT up reply actions

I think it's crap

that you call yourself a Raiders fan and always pick us to lose. As a fan you should be picking us to win. your predictions suck you shoulda posted this on the patriots site instead mr turncoat.

by Darkjester on Sep 30, 2011 2:30 PM PDT reply actions

What? He pickied the Raiders to lose by 3 to the Patriots

and you think he should go to a Patriots site? This prediction is not about bashing the Raiders. It is about analyzing the game. There is nothing wrong with predicting a loss. That doesn’t mean he is hoping for or wanting a loss.

Slithering along the edge of a straight razor.

by Rich Langford on Sep 30, 2011 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions

but

it shows that still in the eyes of many people here we still are not very good. I would say the patriots are the team that is not very good anymore. they can’t play defense and all they can do on offense is pass. that is not the mark of a good team. I think they are beatable and obviously he does too. my point is that if the game is really that close on paper why not pick your team to win? why pick them? I am just sayin that if your gonna predict a 3 point game you should pick your own team to win it.

by Darkjester on Sep 30, 2011 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions

Hey, it worked last week

When he picked us to lose and we won. Let’s hope we get the same results this week.

@WorldBLee

by worldblee on Sep 30, 2011 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions

Fan doesn't = stupid. This is the 2nd toughtest opponent we face all season and we're expected to lose

When you break it down it looks like a high scoring close game … with us losing because our defense can’t stop them no matter how well our O plays. This analysis does not determine the outcome – games have to be played – and guys can step up and exceed expectations … but looking at things from experience and current circumstances we lose by 3 to 7 points.

S-O-B: ITS HOW I ROLL, DEAL WITH IT.
"I made a trade for Seymour. ..I thought it was a great trade. Still do. [Al Davis 1/2011]
"I love to win, even against my daughters, I want to win" Hue "Action" Jackson 8/19/11

by Sons-of-Blanda on Sep 30, 2011 9:29 PM PDT up reply actions

and that my friend

Is a biased opinion. His predictions are always based on what we have on paper and in front of us, we can’t always pick the raiders to win

I like to believe my best HITS border on Felonious ASSAULT
-Jack Tatum

by DarksideJU08 on Sep 30, 2011 2:36 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

and why not? every game is winnable and as a fan i find it sad that some just write us off

by Darkjester on Sep 30, 2011 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions

You sound like a silly child

by Sons-of-Blanda on Sep 30, 2011 9:30 PM PDT up reply actions

"And you are an old man and a fool!"

—THOR

"If it weren't for the gutter, my mind would be homeless."
--Woody Paige

Oakland Raiders, New York Giants, Los Angeles Lakers, Anaheim Angels... and Quentin Tarantino.

by The_Power_and_the_Glory_of_Robert_Horry on Oct 1, 2011 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions

I've got Raiders 38 Gaytriots 35

Seabass breaks the NFL record with a 66 yard FG to end the game…

we never retreat we always ATTACK!!!

by transparent58 on Sep 30, 2011 2:31 PM PDT reply actions

Nuts absolfricking nuts....

I still don’t think the Raiders are gonna loose… It’s gonna be tight but this is not a great prediction IMO. You may not even considered home field advantage in a sold out box. That gonna be a factor.

Although at times I think you are entertaining. This is an absolutely shoddy breakdown and I’m disappointed that you are even a member of the crew that I enjoy. That this is even a front page post is absurd this is barely above a fan post…

Pass rush has no impact? They are the catalyst along with the best rushing attack in football.
Safety play is the question and the answer.
Nobody can cover Chaz wow that’s an interesting thought 5 catches 40yards 13.3 8.0 yac wow that’s domination… I hope they pay attention to him which will make the guys that can make plays open!

31-38 Raiders… Tight at the start of the 4th

Thanks for mailing it in…

by samiam2112 on Sep 30, 2011 2:54 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs

+1 for the video clip of Bo Jackson in Tecmo Bowl

Now if we see McFadden swerving all over the field, we’ll know why.

@WorldBLee

by worldblee on Sep 30, 2011 3:11 PM PDT reply actions

to all the haters

I want the Raiders to win. I hate the Patriots. I think the Raiders will win ten games and the division. I just don’t think they will win this particular game. If I am wrong I will be happy. If you dislike my prediction feel free to make your own. This is the thread for that.

I am loathe to defend my predictive skills but I don’t want anyone to think I don’t like the Raiders because I predict them to lose.

These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others. -Groucho Marx

by RDreamer on Sep 30, 2011 3:17 PM PDT via mobile reply actions

If beleiving in this team is being a hater that's a new twist

Then I’m a hater…

by samiam2112 on Sep 30, 2011 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Its not believing in the team that makes you a hater,

its that you call into question a respected member of this communities fandom because he picked the Raiders to lose to one of the best teams in the league, then proceded to take cheap shots at his writing.

I thought this was clear, but apparently it isn’t to some; RaiderDamus is picking who he objectively thinks will win the football game, regardless of which team he is a fan of. And, if you look at last season, he does a pretty good job of this. If he was writing a post about who he wanted to win, he would obviously pick the Raiders every week.

There is nothing wrong with someone being a realist instead of an optimist. And realistically, the Patriots have the best quarterback in the game, the leagues leading receiver, and one of the better tight ends out there. The Patriots have a quick strike offense that the Raiders have already proven that they struggle with this season, and the Raiders will be missing one of their starting cornerbacks. It’s fine if you believe the Raiders will win, but to cast someones fanhood aside simply because he doesn’t believe we’ve yet to join the leagues elite is foolish and irresponsible.

"Even if the plane is on autopilot, I don't want a monkey in the cockpit" - ilikeike

by pfeifer on Sep 30, 2011 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions

Thank you. The recent tone of lockstep fanatacism is ridiculous.

We need to see things clearly as they are and hope our weaknesses are addressed .

by Sons-of-Blanda on Sep 30, 2011 9:35 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't know how much of a "lockstep" type of activity it is

I think it’s more like riding a rad 6-footer off of Swami beach
you push in and hope it stays beautiful
(despite the weaknesses)

by Raaddad on Oct 1, 2011 12:43 AM PDT up reply actions

Don't know Swami's but guess the floor is irregular (deeps and abrupt shallows) soon after the break

That analogy fits

by Sons-of-Blanda on Oct 1, 2011 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions

"You push in and hope it stays beautiful"

Yeah, that’s all you really can do… wait, are we talking about marriage or surfing?

"If it weren't for the gutter, my mind would be homeless."
--Woody Paige

Oakland Raiders, New York Giants, Los Angeles Lakers, Anaheim Angels... and Quentin Tarantino.

by The_Power_and_the_Glory_of_Robert_Horry on Oct 1, 2011 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions

LOL

As long as you can keep “pushing in,” as it were, it’s all good

by Raaddad on Oct 1, 2011 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions

Remember, this is supposed to be a thought-evoking post to get people motivated to discuss different opinions.

What kind of Raiderdamus would he be if he chose the Raiders to win every single game? He is supposed to chose the Raiders to lose sometimes and doing so does not make him a hater. It’s just the nature of this post. He points out some opinions and by design people are supposed to have different and varied opinions that get all of us to talk and brainstorm. The post is most certainly working because it has even stirred strong emotions in some people. Good Job Dreamer!

In my view, on paper the Pats are supposed to be better than the Raiders just like the Jets were. In that regard, a Pats win is not supposed to be a shocker. The Jets win was not supposed to be a shocker. However, the Jets lost and I had my strong suspicions that the Raiders were going to win anyway so it was not a shock to me that the Raiders won; I was actually expecting it. Likewise, the Pats are supposed to win but I can’t help but to feel that the Raiders are going to win it. GO RAIDERRRRSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by RaiderPsycho on Sep 30, 2011 4:14 PM PDT reply actions

thanks for that

I truly believe the Raiders can win. Their style is something the Pats will have difficulty handling. It would not shock me if we won. If our defense was better I could feel more comfortable with that but I think Brady will put up big numbers. Go Raiders all the same! I can live with the embarrassment if we win.

These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others. -Groucho Marx

by RDreamer on Sep 30, 2011 4:23 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

I think the Jets D is an upgrade over the Pats

They got physically dominated by the Raiders… What Psycho wouldn’t like that factor in this game LOL!

by samiam2112 on Sep 30, 2011 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions

I've got a samiam nostradamus reading me, lol!

by RaiderPsycho on Sep 30, 2011 8:37 PM PDT up reply actions

Like the video, Damus

Too funny

by rightnasty on Sep 30, 2011 4:17 PM PDT reply actions

Sorry ...

have to disagree with your outcome again this week. This Patriots team not only can be beat, the Raiders shall do just that this Sunday. Yes … there’s going to be scoring on both sides, but DMac is going to gouge them and the speed of our receivers will prove to be just enough edge to outscore this too-long-in-the-relevancy-headlines bunch. 37-34 Raiders. GO RAIDERS!!!

by VJH5404 on Sep 30, 2011 4:18 PM PDT reply actions

Relax

It’s just a pick people. As a Raider fan I think every game is winnable. However, common sense tells any NFL fan that only two teams have ever gone undefeated in the regular season. One of those teams happens to be our opponent. Are they that years team, no. Is there defense sketchy, yes. But in no way can you question there offense. Everyone says the Pats don’t run good, and it’s true they don’t. But they have one of the top 3 QB’s in the league who passe’s a lot and does so well. His completion percentage is insane, no matter the receiver. And I hate Brady’s guts, but respect his game. Welker is a very difficult cover, it can be done, but it will be hard. Simply put, we all know they will pass. The same as the Patriots know we will run. I think our offense is better and has more weapons, but I don’t trust our defense yet especially the secondary. What it comes down to is who will have the ball last. The Pats may just “throw” all the time, but they do it well. I figure it will be a game of stops, as in who can get at least 4. Cause I think it will be a fire fight. I’m picking my team, but I would not be shocked if RaiderDamus is correct. I’m thinking 37-35, Oakland. Can’t wait, go Raiders!!!!

by lakers007raiders on Sep 30, 2011 4:22 PM PDT reply actions

I am 2-1 in my predictions

Last week I said Raiders would win 34-30.
This game I feel good, but a nail bitter.
Here is my prediction:
Halftime: Patriots 20 Raiders 14
Final score: Patriots 34 Raiders 36
Player of the game: Kevin Boss!!!

by Mr.Westwood on Sep 30, 2011 4:32 PM PDT via mobile reply actions

37-34 Raiders

McFadden runs wild, Campbell keeps the ball safe and gets a TD.Brady throws 4TDs and 2Ints.

by RyanTheRaider on Sep 30, 2011 6:54 PM PDT reply actions

I would of course love to see the men in silver-and-black win

but at the score you predicted—THAT would still be a victory of sorts.

by Raaddad on Sep 30, 2011 6:59 PM PDT reply actions

Yeah I mean this game to me is a total toss-up

I only have the Pats by three points, this isn’t going to be anything like the game in 2008 where they beat us 49-26. This game will be very close and the Raiders will look very good even if they lose, which to be honest with all of you seems less likely the more I ponder it. However, I still have to stand by what I said even though I hope I am dead wrong.

These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others. -Groucho Marx

by RDreamer on Sep 30, 2011 8:14 PM PDT up reply actions

No need to defend what you have seen and foretold. The future is never certain anyway.

Moreover, allowing the unwashed and rabid herd to influence you would be a betrayal of your mandate.

by Sons-of-Blanda on Sep 30, 2011 9:41 PM PDT up reply actions

No, it's not them

It’s the fact that the Patriots are traveling across the country and facing a smash mouth team. This just seems like a trap game a la Super Bowl XLII.

This place is, as it should be, filled with endless optimists and Raider homers. I expect this sort of backlash when I predict a Raider loss. It happened last year and it will happen again. I won’t let it affect me. I just hope the Raiders do well enough this year that come the Green Bay game, Raider fans are as confident in that game as they are today. A win against the Jets will do that to a fanbase, I suppose.

These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others. -Groucho Marx

by RDreamer on Oct 1, 2011 3:02 AM PDT up reply actions

I can see Brady setting the record for passing yards this game

I think I’m just used to our old Raiders and hopefully they don’t have a meltdown. I know I need more faith, I think I just have PTSD from all these bad years :) RAAAAIIIIIIIDDDDDDDEEEEEEEERRRRRRSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!

"Bad is Back, thanks be to the Antichrist" - George Atkinson

by Ghost Raider on Oct 1, 2011 4:45 AM PDT reply actions

I say there's nothing wrong ...

With keepin’ it real, RD, if the goal is to make a prediction from a ‘neutral’ standpoint.

Look, the line has the Pat’s by 4.5, right? And if you go to the ESPN picks page, all but two of the guys that pick have the Pats to win it. That’s a pretty good indication that most of the neutral observers believe they are going to win this game.

And frankly, much as it pains me to say it, I think there’s a very good chance that you, and they, are correct. And it’s because of the state of our defense that I believe it. The defense has shown that they can play great at times, but during the course of the game, the consistency is just not there.

And if we’re keeping it real, these Pats are team that can kill you if you have defensive lapses, be they miscommunications, missed tackles, leaving lanes open, or whatever. And FREQUENT lapses like these are EXACTLY why this defense is so ‘average at best’.

Brady will certainly find ways to exploit the weaknesses of this defense, and I have little faith that, with as few healthy, starting-caliber players we have that can ‘go’ this week, that Bres is going to be able to find a way to stop him from doing so.

Believe me, I think the Raiders COULD win. I will be cheering my friggin face off for this team come Sunday. I want us to win SO BAD. But I couldn’t PREDICT them to win with any degree of honesty. With all these injuries to the 2ndary, to me, our D against their O looks like the proverbial ‘match-up nightmare’.

For us to win, our both of our lines are going to need to play out of their heads. D-line has to harass Tommy-Boy early, often, and severely. Make him nervous back there, bat down his balls, and put him in the dirt. This is all MUCH easier said than done, as evidenced by the passing yardage he’s already put up this year.

Although highlights are all I’ve seen of the Pats this year, from what I’ve seen, their o-line are incredible pass blockers. Every play I’ve seen on these highlights shows Tom being able to take three steps back, stand there unmolested, like, forever, and then throw a dart to a guy, on the run, who then catches it, makes people miss, and rumbles for a ton of yards.

So the D-Line is going to have to be at their absolute BEST. If you picked the best four quarters of the past 3 games for this defense, and had them play that well for all 4 quarters of this game … THEN we could definitely win this game. But I’ve sure not seen signs that this D is capable of 4 straight brilliant quarters of football.

The O-line is going to need to open up big holes for McBush on a very consistent basis, because we are going to have to convert a LOT of third downs to win this game … last week, we converted 0 of them. We obviously also have to keep penalties to a minimum, esp. the dumb 15 yarders and PI’s, and we cannot afford to lose the turnover battle. We probably will also need an unanswered ST touchdown as well. That or a couple three 50+ yd FG’s from the Polish Cannon.

Again, like RD, I’m not saying we WON’T or CAN’T win … but I do not EXPECT to win this game. If we do, I will be on cloud friggin’ nine. If we don’t … I ain’t lose faith. All last week I said that the Jets game was the test in my mind as to whether this was the ‘same old Raiders’ or not, and they absolutely put that fear to rest. Even after falling behind 17-7 and not looking all that good in the first 20 minutes of ball, they never folded, and they battled back to a glorious victory. The ‘old’ Raiders absolutely WOULD have folded at that stage.

This is a new Raiders, and they are dangerous, talented, and motivated team. They may not be able to beat the Pats with half a ‘walking wounded’ 2ndary just yet, but we will play them tough, and we’ll look like we belong on the same field w/ANY team in the process. An outcome which, to me, right now, after all the years of suffering … is something I can totally live with.

I’ll only be depressed if we get our ass handed to us, and end up looking silly out there.

by Brett J Valjalo on Oct 1, 2011 11:47 AM PDT reply actions

I can agree with that to a point Brett

But only to a point. I really believe that our defensive coaches are just pounding it into our Dbacks that they have to play more consistantly. I think they are going to play as well or better than they did against the Jets. I believe we are going to run the ball for 250 to 300 yards. I believe we are going to do everything to control the ball. And MOST of all I believe that Big Dick Seymore and Big Tommy Kelly are going to be in Tommy boys face all afternoon long! I think he is going to be looking up into the Oakland sky from his back frequently! And maybe he will get into a fistfight with his coach! nah thats just bullshit. but he will be cursing the Seymore trade!
Raiders 35, Pats 31

"Just Win Baby" is not a philosophy, it is a way of life!

by Ra1derRob67 on Oct 1, 2011 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions

In a game in which the Raiders' defensive coaching staff uses the old Kobe Bryant or MJ mentality versus a superstar.

They understand Tom will get his but the way to win is ensure there is no rhythm or control the tempo to the game whatsoever. This is a game the Raiders have had circled since Hue became HC. In a game never in doubt after an opening kickoff return TD by a returning Jacoby Ford the score indicates a battle which it is not. In Rolando McClain’s coming out party, Raiders win 35-27.

Trust No One
Studies show stress can kill you, but don't worry about it.

by TAW on Oct 1, 2011 6:54 PM PDT reply actions