Fantasy football advice Week 11

Thearon W. Henderson

At this time of year in every league there are some teams that already fell along the wayside and some fighting hard to get into the playoffs. Keep fighting either way and as always questions are welcome!

Undeniable Truth of the Week

Right now is the toughest stretch in fantasy football. Every single decision you make matters big time for your team and you absolutely need to be certain on what play you make. The wrong move can be the difference between winning and losing, and winning or losing can be the difference between making the playoffs.

Do not let yourself get stuck in a position where you knock yourself out of the playoffs by not caring enough about the moves you make in these next couple weeks. Most fantasy leagues playoffs start around week 14 or 15 depending on the amount of teams in your league and how prudent your league is about wanting to avoid teams sitting their best players.

This is the time to do extra research on which player you want to start. Make sure to pay attention to projections but remember that in the end those are just guesses. Calculated educated guesses from extensive arithmetic that are often pretty accurate but guesses all the same. Use a mix of projections from multiple sites and your own gut feeling on who to play.

I love the NumberFire.com projections which are often the most accurate but take a look at other sites too. If multiple sites like Yahoo!, NFL.com, CBSSports, and Rotoworld all have similar projections for a player you definitely can trust the accuracy more. Still if you feel certain that they are all wrong and the player you want to start is going to do better don't be afraid to start them. If you go against your gut feeling and are wrong it hurts more than if you go with your gut and are wrong.

Best Match-Ups of the Week

The best match-up this week without a doubt involves our very own favorite team the Oakland Raiders. The game between the Raiders and Saints feature two of the absolute worst defenses and two offenses that can put yards up on anybody. Just about any fantasy player on your team from either the Saints or the Raiders is going to be a worthwhile play, but remember both teams have lots of options though so sometimes even with the teams scoring a ton it might not be your player. The Raiders offensive ranks are very low because their run game is so poor, but their offense is stronger than it appears in the following statistical rankings.

Statistical Rankings Saints
Overall 1.57 #15
Offense 99.44 #3
Defense 115.32 #31

Statistical Rankings Raiders
Overall -5.36 #28
Offense -3.55 #24
Defense 70.00 #26

The second best fantasy match-up is the Packers vs Lions game. The Packers will be without their lone pass rusher Clay Matthews III and that means Matt Stafford is likely to have quite a bit of time to throw. The Packers players, much like the Saints, are always a good play considering the amount Green Bay throws. The Lions' Titus Young is a player that may be available that could be a good play as he has been getting a nice rapport with Stafford. Michel LeShoure is coming off a 3 TD game and the Packers have had difficulty I expect a lot of fantasy points from both teams in this game.

Statistical Rankings Packers
Overall 10.33 #3
Offense 121.86 #2
Defense 23.92 #13

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Statistical Rankings Lions
Overall 0.85 #17
Offense69.63 #8
Defense 84.22 #28

New England versus Indianapolis is another game that has shootout written all over it. Andrew Luck has been on fire and I expect that to continue against the Patriots shoddy pass defense. The Patriots always play well although you never really know if they are going to beat you with the run or pass this year. This match-up is always a great game to watch, and I expect that to continue even though Peyton Manning has moved on. On a side note the

Statistical Rankings Colts
Overall -1.12 #20
Offense 62.61 #10
Defense 102.05 #30

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Statistical Rankings Patriots
Overall 9.31 #4
Offense 130.27#1
Defense 49.86 #25

Worst Match-ups of the Week

San Francisco against Chicago is one match-up I would definitely shy away from. These are two of the best defenses in the league and it promises to live up to their standings. If a battle of titanic defenses doesn't scare you then have at it, but this is a game that appears likely to be a low scoring affair.

Statistical Rankings Bears
Overall 4.66 #8
Offense -21.29 #26
Defense -94.41 #1

Statistical Rankings 49ers
Overall 8.86 #5
Offense 72.19 #6
Defense -10.36 #6

Baltimore against Pittsburgh is another game that its hard to trust much of anybody going in, despite what the Ravens did to the Raiders last week. It appears Pittsburgh is likely going to be without Ben Rothlisberger and that is a major hit to their offense. Without the threat to pass I can't imagine their platoon of running backs doing much either. As for the Baltimore offense the Pittsburgh Steelers know them well and always give them a tough match. You can see in the statistical rankings that the two teams are very similar in performance so far this year, although the Ravens are obviously slightly better.

Statistical Rankings Steelers
Overall 1.07 #16
Offense 37.50 #17
Defense 36.80 #18

Statistical Rankings Ravens
Overall 2.64 #13
Offense 51.10 #12
Defense 33.63 #15

Dallas against Cleveland has approximately one player that I consider a must start every week and that is Trent Richardson. This is a hard game to predict much from because both defenses are in the top half of the league. I do not expect much action in this game and probably wouldn't want to have to play anybody except Richardson in this one.

Statistical Rankings Browns
Overall -5.73 #30
Offense -41.40 #29
Defense 22.84 #12

Statistical Rankings Cowboys
Overall 3.09 #12
Offense 42.84 #15
Defense 15.99 #9

Always remember with the worst match-ups it depends on who you have on your bench. If you don't have a player that is a viable option over somebody in one of these match-ups you should still roll the dice against a tough opponent rather than play an obviously sub-par player.

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