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Quick Analysis - No QB in 1st Round Please

I did a quick analysis over a 10 year period to determine the success rate of choosing a QB in the first round. The results are actually better than I thought they would be with 35% of the picks actually working out well. I based the decision on a couple of factors (due to lack of having more time) (1) Are they stdill a starting QB in the league? (2) Who could they have taken otherwise? Even with these decent odds, I would rather avoid a QB unless we get Bridgewater. I say trade the #5 pick to compile more draft picks. Hopefully Clowney falls past 4 and we will have a ton of interested teams. (NO I don't want Clowney either) QB Quick Look In 2012, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin appear to be good picks in my eyes. They are still the starting QB and are potential franchise QBs. I placed Ryan Tannehill (jury still out) and Brandon Weeden in the 'Bad Picks' side of things due to the fact they have had limited success and the teams could have selected Doug Martin. 2011 was a major bust for drafting a QB. Cam Newton was the only first year QB I see as a good pick. Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, and Blane Gabbert were taken in the 1st round ahead of ouch... JJ Watt 2010 was split between Sam Bradford (decent pick) and Tim Tebow (HORRIBLE pick). The Rams could have had Ndamukong Suh or Dez Bryant (among others). The Broncos could have had Bryant. 2009 was another down year. Matthew Stafford was fine; however, Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman have not worked out over the long haul. Brian Orakpo and Clay Matthews would have been much better picks. 2008 was a good year with Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco (both solid). 2007 was a disaster; especially for my beloved Raiders. Bad picks included JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn. We passed on Megatron and Patrick Willis... NOOOOOOOO 2006 was not much better with Vince Young, Matt Leinart, and Jay Cutler (ended us calling him a good pick, but on the fence). These teams passed on Haloti Ngata. 2005 Alex Smith (could have had Rodgers), Aaron Rodgers (obviously good) and Jason Campbell (bad - could have had Roddy White) 2004 - Great QB Draft. All picks have worked out well with Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Big Ben. JP Losman was the only exception when the Bills passed on Steven Jackson. 2003 - Really Bad QB Draft. Carson Palmer has been decent (but passed on Andre Johnson, Terrell Suggs and Troy Palamalu). The really bad picks were Bryon Leftwich, Kyle Boller and Rex Grossman (leaving Larry Johnson and Nnamdi Asomugha on the board).

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