When you look at success rates of quarterbacks in history, it definitely favors 1st round selections. It makes sense to be that way because if a QB looks like he will have a shot at being successful in the NFL it leads to teams reaching for them and drafting them early. That does not mean that the only way to get a great QB is to get them early though, it is possible to wait and find a gem later on.
Whether the Oakland Raiders should go QB with their first pick in the 2014 draft comes down to how much they like the individual QB's in this draft, but it also comes down to how much the other teams like the QB's as well. If there is a shot to get their guy outside of the first round then they should wait, but if they really love a player then is it worth risking losing them to wait it out?
To be a GM in the NFL is to take questions like these and make the tough decisions. It is knowing when to hold them and when to fold them. This a very tough year for Reggie McKenzie to decide to play his hand or wait it out with a QB because there isn't a player that stands out as a once in a generation player. Sometimes that makes you think it should be easy to decide to wait on a QB, but just because a player doesn't stand out as a safe choice doesn't mean there isn't a star waiting there to be picked.
Reggie has proven himself to be unpredictable in general for the Raiders in his span with the team. If there was any hint to what direction he was heading we would be jumping up and down with the knowledge, but there isn't anything concrete to hold on to. He could easily pick a QB with the 5th pick in the draft like Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel or Teddy Bridgewater. He also could easily pick a Sammy Watkins or a Jake Matthews too, we just don't know.
It is really tough to decide what the best play for the Raiders will be in this draft. They got Matt Schaub as a legitimate starting option for at least next season and maybe longer so they are not in dire straits if they skip on one of the top QB's in this year's draft. However, they clearly still need a QB of the future since Schaub isn't getting any younger and Matt McGloin, though he could still improve, hasn't shown enough to warrant the faith of handing the future over to him.
Part of me wants the Raiders to draft Johnny Manziel because he is so electrifying, part of me wants to see Blake Bortles as the pick because he has so much room to grow as a QB, and part of me wants to see who will be available in the 2nd round of the draft. Mel Kiper's latest mock draft has Teddy Bridgewater falling to the first pick in the 2nd round, if its a possibility to wait and get Teddy in the 2nd and an immediate contributor in the top 5 then that might be the best situation out of all of them.
Then you have the likes of Derek Carr who could be available later in the first or early 2nd, or AJ McCarron and Zach Mettenberger who could both be available in the 3rd round. With how many options are available at QB it is no surprise that there is so much smoke around where the Raiders will end up selecting one. They could pass on all of them and roll with another year before finding a QB of the future too.
My question to you readers is where would you want the Raiders to draft a QB this year? Answer in the poll question and let us know what you think in the comments section!