FanPost

Player Probability Predictor Draft Tool

This draft tool predicts the percentage possibility of a player being at a certain pick. For example, for Khalil Mack this tool predicts that there is a 46% chance he will be available at 5. Oh i'm just gonna toss out this disclaimer right now, it's a probability program based on a few mock drafts and we all know how mock drafts turn out come draft day. Anyway here are the probabilities for our top 10 on our community draft board for our pick at 5

1. Jadaveon Clowney - 0%

2. Sammy Watkins - 2%

3. Khalil Mack - 54%

4. Greg Robinson - 0%

5. Jake Matthews - 87%

6. Mike Evans - 96%

7. Johnny Manziel - 42%

8. Aaron Donald - 100%

9. Anthony Barr - 100%

10. Taylor Lewan - 86%

Now just for shits and giggles let's say we trade down with Detroit (10) because Watkins falls to us for whatever reason. Please don't comment "but senior were nt trading w/ detroit u smke crack or somethang?" cause this is all hypothetical anyway and i will say something mean to you which will probably sting and really haunt you for the rest of your life and we can't have that now can we? Players that got a 0% for our pick at 5 I'll just ignore cause it'll get repetitive.

2. Watkins - 0%

3. Mack - 2%

5. Matthews - 5%

6. Evans - 4%

7. Manziel - 3%

8. Donald - 97%

9. Barr - 99%

10. Lewan - 33%

Anyway here's some probabilities for some other notable prospects

Stephon Tuitt - 64% in the 2nd, 1% in the 3rd

Jordan Matthews - 90% in the 2nd, 13% in the 3rd,

Teddy Bridgewater - 99% in the 1st, 30% in the 2nd

Jason Verrett - 7% in the 2nd

David Yankey - 99% in the 2nd, 73% in the 3rd, 16% in the 4th

Will Sutton - 95% in the 2nd, 73% in the 3rd, 19% in the 4th

Timmy Jernigan - 43% in the 2nd, 0% in the 3rd

Deone Bucannon - 93% in the 2nd, 13% in the 3rd

Have fun with it, definitely one of the neater draft tools I've encountered.

http://wp.advancedfootballanalytics.com/bayesianDraftAnalysisTool.php

or if that doesn't work

http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2014/05/bayesian-draft-analysis-tool.html

below the pictures with the colored circles on it theres a link in green that says 'link to the tool'

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