FanPost

POLL: Elway vs McKenzie. A Matter of Philosophy?

Slide1_zpspoquahkb.0.jpgvia: nfl.com

How would you build your championship team? Would you favor using a slower and more methodical approach (build primarily through the draft) or would you use a faster and more aggressive approach (build primarily through free agency) or some combination of the two? This is a fundamental question that each NFL general manager must answer. Do John Elway and Reggie McKenzie represent both approaches or are they just responding to their team's unique set of circumstances? Let’s try to gain some insights in to each GM's philosophy by taking a look at how each has filled out the roster of their respective teams over the same period as each tries to gain (Raiders) and maintain (Broncos) superiority in the competitive AFC West.

Backgrounds

Oakland Raiders

Reggie McKenzie

reggie-mckenzie-raiders-young_zpsn9igmsw8.0.jpg

via: minustwentytwo.com

Age: 52 College: Tennessee Playing Position: Linebacker (1985-1992)

Post Football Career: Tennessee assistant coach, 1993, Green Bay Packers, Director Player Personnel, 1994-2012

Influences: Ron Wolf, Ted Thompson

Notable Quotes:

In a Novermber 2012 CSNBayarea.com roundtable interview with the media responding to a question about a possible aversion to using free agency to upgrade the roster McKenzie replied: "No, the philosophy is to upgrade the roster." You can find the entire article here.

Please click here for a 2013 Raider Nation Times article that explicitly describes what it believes to be Reggie McKenzie's roster building philosophy. Elias Trejo does a great job laying it out almost 2 years ago.

via: game athletics.blogspot.com

Denver Broncos

John Elway

628x471_zpsjylbji7b.0.jpg

via: sfchronicle

Age: 54 College: Stanford Playing Position: Quarterback (1983-1998)

Post Football Career: Various business activities, Denver Broncos, GM/Executive Vice President of Football Operations, 2011 to present

Influences: Himself, of course

Notable Quotes:

Jeff Legwold, ESPN NFLNation, October 27, 2014

First, he says, "The draft is the foundation for everything we do. We want guys who grow up being Denver Broncos.’’

And secondly, he has said, "If there is a player who is better than one we have, then we want that player. And once he’s here, how he got here isn’t something we worry about at that point. We want the best 53, the guys that make sense for the Denver Broncos.’’

Entire ESPN article on Elway Philosophy

Click here for an interesting 2011 John Clayton article that seems to describe exactly the OPPOSITE of what John Elway has become as the GM of the Denver Broncos, post loss to the Indianapolis Colts and subsequent dismissal of the entire coaching staff.

The Tables

Table of Roster Moves Since 2012

Year/Transaction

Oakland Raiders

Denver Broncos

2012

Veteran Additions

9

10

Draft

5

7

UDFA

13

13

2013

Veteran Additions

13

7

Draft

6

6

UDFA

14

16

2014

Veteran Additions

11

5

Draft

8

6

UDFA

11

15

The table above does not appear to reveal a particular philosophical approach to building an NFL roster. Given the need of a complete overhaul of its roster in 2012, it was expected that the Raiders would be active in free agency, possibly skewing how the data appears. The Raiders added twice as many veteran free agents in 2013 and 2014 compared to Denver. Maybe this is not the correct way to assess how a team approaches and values building its roster. Perhaps analyzing the terms and values of the contracts a team gives its players will reveal more.

2015 Contract Details per Spotrac.com

Oakland Raiders

Denver Broncos

Average Contract

Years

2.7

2.8

$ Amount

$4,652,922

$8,171,900

Cash Earned

$1,473,462

$1,840,287

Cap Hit

$1,733,145

$2,133,383

The above table reveals that Denver has given out larger contracts on average to its players. Based on the table above, Denver's average player contract is twice as large as Oakland's.

The following tables show the top 10 guaranteed contracts for each team.

Oakland Raiders

PLAYER

AGE

CONTRACT TERMS

AVG. SALARY

GUARANTEED

EXPIRES

Khalil Mack

23

4 yr

$18,676,999

$4,669,250

$18,676,999

2018

Austin Howard

27

5 yr

$30,000,000

$6,000,000

$13,800,000

2019

D.J. Hayden

24

4 yr

$10,323,698

$2,580,925

$10,323,698

2017

Tyvon Branch

28

4 yr

$26,600,000

$6,650,000

$10,100,000

2018

Sebastian Janikowski

36

4 yr

$15,100,000

$3,775,000

$8,000,000

2018

Matt Schaub

33

2 yr

$13,500,000

$6,750,000

$8,000,000

2016

Nick Roach

29

4 yr

$13,000,000

$3,250,000

$5,000,000

2015

LaMarr Woodley

30

2 yr

$10,350,000

$5,175,000

$4,350,000

2016

Justin Tuck

31

2 yr

$10,000,000

$5,000,000

$4,350,000

2016

Donald Penn

31

2 yr

$9,600,000

$4,800,000

$4,200,000

2016

via: overthecap.com

Denver Broncos

PLAYER

AGE

CONTRACT TERMS

AVG. SALARY

GUARANTEED

EXPIRES

Peyton Manning

38

5 yr

$96,000,000

$19,200,000

$58,000,000

2017

Aqib Talib

29

6 yr

$57,000,000

$9,500,000

$25,500,000

2020

Chris Harris

25

5 yr

$42,500,000

$8,500,000

$24,000,000

2020

Von Miller

26

4 yr

$21,000,380

$5,250,095

$21,000,380

2016

DeMarcus Ware

32

3 yr

$30,000,000

$10,000,000

$20,000,000

2017

Ryan Clady

28

5 yr

$52,500,000

$10,500,000

$15,000,000

2018

T.J. Ward

28

4 yr

$22,500,000

$5,625,000

$14,000,000

2018

Louis Vasquez

27

4 yr

$23,500,000

$5,875,000

$10,000,000

2017

Demaryius Thomas

27

5 yr

$14,150,500

$2,830,100

$9,351,750

2015

Emmanuel Sanders

27

3 yr

$15,000,000

$5,000,000

$6,000,000

2017

via: overthecap.com

Takeaways from the Top 10 Guaranteed Contracts Tables

  • Denver has guaranteed 2.3 times as much money as Oakland for the entire roster ($202,852,130 vs. $86,800,697).
  • Denver’s largest guaranteed money contract is for a veteran addition (Manning) compared to the Raiders’ top draft pick (Khalil Mack)
  • 6 out of the top 10 of each team’s guaranteed contracts are for veteran additions.

However, maybe the biggest indication of how each GM has placed value on its players can be seen in the top 5 guaranteed contracts:

3 of Denver’s top 5 guaranteed contracts are for veteran additions while for Oakland, 4 out of the top 5 guaranteed contracts are for players drafted by the Raiders. This seems to indicate Oakland’s preference for valuing its homegrown talent but also illustrates a team rebuilding its roster from the ground up.

Let's take a look at a table that illustrates how each team's roster contracts are valued heading in to 2015. This table reflects a Denver roster that is nearly fully valued compared to an Oakland roster that is well short of being fully valued.

2015 Total Cap and Cap Space per Overthecap.com

Oakland Raiders

Denver Broncos

2015 Base Salary Cap

$140,000,000*

$140,000,000*

Total Cap Number

$97,628,421

$122,870,082

Cap Space

$51,946,579

$26,044,918

via: overthecap.com

*Estimate as of this article.

The table reflects Oakland’s roughly $26 million gap in valuing its roster compared to Denver. Understanding where each team finds itself in the hierarchy of the NFL, Denver has effectively built its team to win "today" where as, Oakland is in the "process" of building its team to win going forward. Does this define each of the team’s respective GMs and their philosophies of building a winning franchise or is each of them simply responding to each team’s circumstances?

What we think we know about John Elway (and the Broncos)

In 2012, the Indianapolis Colts released Peyton Manning. Assuming he was the final piece of a possible Super Bowl puzzle, John Elway and the Denver Broncos signed him shortly thereafter. After falling one game short of being SB champions, Elway and the Broncos made big moves to improve what was thought to be the next missing piece to a SB victory, an improved defense. Denver went out and signed Demarcus Ware, TJ Ward and Aqib Talib. Fully armed and restocked, the Broncos were ready to enter the 2014 season, return to and win the Super Bowl.

What Happened?

Denver went 12-4 in the regular season and made the playoffs only to lose to the Indianapolis Colts in the Divisional Round, 24-13.

Ostensibly, as a result of the disappointing loss to the Colts, John Elway and John Fox agreed to part ways with Elway issuing this statement:

"John Fox and I met for more than an hour on Monday afternoon to discuss the 2014 season and our goals for the future," Elway said in a statement. "During our open and candid conversation, it became clear that it was best for both the Denver Broncos and Coach Fox to move on and make this change."

In addition to Fox, the entire coaching staff was advised it should seek other opportunities.

What does this move say about John Elway’s style of managing? Maybe nothing if he and John Fox just could not coexist. Sometimes marriages are not meant to last. However, if only winning the last game of the season is acceptable, how many coaching staffs will John Elway go through until he achieves that goal?? If circumstances were to change and Elway and the Broncos were to find themselves in a rebuilding mode, would he change his management style accordingly? Rebuilding requires patience and a stronger stomach for possible losing seasons. Is Elway built for that? When does ego get in the way?

If you're interested, here is a link to a article on Elway's psyche that is worth a look.

Then, of course, there's this now famous video. Forward to 2:38 for the best part:

via: youtubekeitholberman

What we think we know about Reggie McKenzie (and the Oakland Raiders).

When Reggie McKenzie took over management of the Oakland Raiders in 2012, the team was swamped with the now famous "out-of-whack" contracts for underperforming players. Reggie’s first job was to rid the team of the players and their contracts and bring the team back under the salary cap. In addition to the roster moves, Reggie replaced Hue Jackson with "his guy", Dennis Allen, a neophyte coach, to run the team. Most critics agreed that Reggie could fix the finances but whispered loudly that Reggie’s bigger challenge was to build the roster back up in addition to doing it with a novice coach. Most questioned whether he would be successful, and until the 2014 Draft, most were dubious. For many, the jury is still out.

What happened?

During his 3 year tenure, the Raiders have gone 11-37, finishing last in the AFC West each year, and seemingly showing little improvement. As a result, after starting the 2014 season 0-4, Reggie dismissed Coach Allen shortly after the team’s disappointing loss in London. Tony Sparano would remove "Assistant" from his title and add "Interim" and take over head coaching duties.

In his press conference following Dennis Allen’s release and the announcement of Tony Sparano’s promotion, McKenzie didn't shy away from taking blame for the team’s losses:

"A lot of it rides on me. I brought Dennis here to win championships," McKenzie said. "... That falls on me."

Does the fact that both, Elway and McKenzie, dismissed their head coaches, say the same thing about each man and his management style?

The howling for Coach Allen’s head by many critics, although McKenzie would never admit to its influence, paints a very different picture than what transpired with John Fox after the playoff loss to the Colts. While many questioned the Fox move by the Broncos, most questioned what took McKenzie and the Raiders so long to remove Dennis Allen. The two moves do not seem to warrant comparison. As a result, McKenzie seems to have avoided the scrutiny and aspersion that followed the move by Elway. To the contrary, the move to replace Sparano with Jack Del Rio, formerly of the Denver Broncos, has received generally positive affirmation, and his contrition over the Dennis Allen failure has garnered much appreciation by most fans and media members.

Where do Reggie McKenzie and the Oakland Raiders go from here?

Because the dismissal of Dennis Allen was not considered a hasty move, patience seems to be one of McKenzie’s virtues, one that could favor the team over the long term. Will this be reflected in his approach to building a roster, primarily through the draft, which generally takes longer and requires more patience? Does his contrition regarding the Allen failure illustrate a subdued ego that will not become an obstacle for the long term success of the franchise? Maybe the biggest question on the tongues of most is, will he keep his job long enough for his patience to pay off? Needing to show ownership and fans results can affect a GM's decision making. Can Reggie resist the temptation for quick fixes to save his job and stick to his plan?

Conclusion

Only time will tell if both John Elway and Reggie McKenzie represent different philosophical approaches to building a winning franchise or if in the end their management decisions reflect the same football philosophy. The circumstances that each GM found themselves under were not the same. Elway took over a team on the verge of the playoffs while McKenzie inherited a franchise in transition, following the passing of its iconic owner, Al Davis. If their philosophies ultimately prove to be different, can each be successful? For now, it’s still too early to draw any concrete conclusions on either GM from the tables presented and the coaching decisions they’ve made. One thing that is certain, the AFC West will continue to be an interesting Division while both men reside there and continue to build on their legacies.

Sheesh, we need a poll!