I think I am onto someting here that can be used as a new stat for football!!!
This is the first test I'm conducting to see just how possible it is to miss the playoffs with an elite defense.
I was shocked at some of the numbers I found with relation to give/take away ratios, points allowed, yardage allowed, points scored and yardage gained in relation to post season and regular season success.
I started with the 2004 season and here is what I found:
The Top 4 defenses in points allowed made the playoffs. The Top 3 appeared in the Second to last week of action and 2 of the Top 3 played in the Super Bowl.
The Top 3 teams ranked as follows:
Points Allowed Yardage Allowed Takeaway
- Pittsburgh 1 11 (32)
- N/E 9 3 (36)
- Philly 10 17 (28)
Before taking takeaways into account Pittsburgh looked like the most impressive defense by far.
They were first in FPA (Fewest Points Allowed) and FYA (Fewest Yard Allowed). In all actuality it was New England's ability to force turnovers that led them to the Super Bowl over the #1 scoring offense in 2004, Indianapolis, and the #1 ranked defense in Pittsburgh by forcing those two teams into a combined 7 turnovers while committing none themselves.
AMAZING FACT #1
In 2004, The Indianapolis Colts were the 29th ranked defense in yards allowed and ranked 19th in FPA, but tied for 3rd in turnovers forced!!!!
If you add that to the #1 ranked scoring team and #2 total yardage offense you get a Wild Card Berth and bounced in the Division Series 20-3 by the team with the elite defense, New England.
The stat in it's infant form will be like an agregate score. I will combine the rankings in TPA, GTA and TYA in order to rank the effectiveness of each defense. I would like to call it PYATA, which is Points Yards Allowed Take Aways.
In fact there is a simala metric we can use for Offense. TYTOP, or, Total Yards Turn Overs Points.
In the Colt Example above they would have scored a PYATA of 51 compared to a TYTOP of an AMAZING, 5. They were 2nd in the League in Fewest Turnovers.
Try it out when you are making your picks this week, and see how it works...My money leans heavily on a Top Defense with an average Offense playing an bad defense with a Top Offense as long as there is a spread involved!!!
I have to run for now, but I will be concluding 2004 tonight!!!
The Raiders have a 95 out of a possible worst ever 96 for the offense and have a very stout 35 on defense. The Defense has all of the room in the world to complain!!!
One of the teams that really stands out in the 2004 season is the Buffalo Bills.
They finished 9-7 and just missed out on a playoff spot. They scored 24.7 points a game, which was good enough for 7th in the League. That was a surprisingly high number for a team that was only 25th in the league in total yaradage!!! Thier 13th place finish with 29 TO's gave them a total score of 45, which is average. This average offense would seem like enough to get an elite defense to the playoffs.
Thier defense led the League in takeaways with 39 and was second in total yards allowed and they were 8th in points allowed!!! That is a score of 11!!! That is better than Pittsburgh AND New England!!!!
Having the Jets and New England in thier Division killed them. They were 1-3 against those two teams.
They started 1-5 and were scoring as few points as the Raiders currently are until thier offense caught up and began scoring 30 plus points a game. At one point they won 6 games in a row by a total score of 238 - 89