If you've taken the over in games with the Raiders or Patriots this season, you are a happy gambler. They are a combined 6-0 going over the over/under line. This week, the game has by far the highest over/under on the board at 55. The next closest is 45.
Despite this high number, take the over, with confidence, again.
The Patriots are second in the NFL at 34.7 points per game and the Raiders are sixth at 30.7. Defensively, the Patriots are 27th at 26.3 points allowed per game and the Raiders 28th at 27.3 points allowed per game.
The confidence in the over for this one is about more than the numbers. Both teams are woefully equipped to stop the others offensive attack. The Patriots quick strike passing attack is the exact kind of offense that gives the Raiders fits. And the Patriots defense does not have the speed to contain the Raiders dominant rushing attack, and they do not have the secondary that will allow them to load up the box to stop the run.
The Patriots are listed as five point favorites in this one. I think this is a little high. The Patriots will be playing on the road at a sold out O.co against a Raiders team flying high. Still, I would stay away from this play. There are plenty of scenarios that could find the Patriots winning by more than five.