FanPost

Our Offense Will Not Be Good


Or should I say, will LIKELY not be good. Anything is possible, as free agency hasn't even started yet.

If you are looking for a negative post on Bill Musgrave, leave now. This post is about facing the harsh reality that many fans here do not want to recognize.

What makes a good offense?

  1. A good Head Coach: Capable of providing a solid offensive (as well as defensive but let's focus on the offense here) gameplan against the opposing defense.
  2. A good Offensive Coordinator: Capable of working with the head coach on gameplanning for the offense, and calling the game based around that gameplan and adjust if needed (of course, with the Head Coach's approval. He is the main gameplanner).
  3. A good-great QB: He's the guy who reads the defense, makes audibles for the run and pass, makes decisions in the passing game, throws the football, etc. Most important offensive position. If you don't have a good-great QB, your offense will fail.
  4. Talented weapons: You need to have players around the QB that can make plays. If you don't, your offense will fail.
  5. Good-great OL: Have to protect the QB, and block in the run game. Most underrated group on offense that does not get enough attention. You don't have a good OL, your offense will struggle.

These are all pretty generic, but not enough people recognize these aspects of what makes a good offense. There are two groups of people that are common among fans:

  1. It's all the coaches fault. They cannot coach the players they have, and their gameplans stink.
  2. It's all the player's fault. They stink. They cannot execute the playcalls for the life of the, which is why the offense struggles.

And often, neither are completely right. Only partly right, because it really is a combination of both aspects. It's like the Head Coach and QB dilemma: Who makes the other? Does the Head Coach make the QB, or vice versa? The truth is, it's a combination of the two.
This is a team game, and both sides need to do their part to be successful. It's never one or the other. So I am going to break this down into two parts: Part 1 will talk about Bill Musgrave, and Part 2 will talk about our offense for the upcoming season (barring free agency and the draft).

Part 1: Bill Musgrave, OC

Musgrave has entered in the building with some controversy surrounding him. Many are pointing out the offensive statistics that his offenses put up, and others argue the players he has had to work with. Again, it's likely a combination of the two that we all must take into account.

Levi wrote a great, objective article on Musgrave, in which I will quote the majority of it:

The most impressive numbers you see from Musgrave offenses in those seasons comes from the run game. In two of those stops, he had a couple of phenomenal running backs in Fred Taylor and Adrian Peterson.

His single season as Eagles OC in 1998, his QB's were Bobby Hoying and Koy Detmer. In his two seasons in Jacksonville, his quarterback was Byron Leftwich. In his three seasons in Minnesota his quarterbacks were Christian Ponder and Matt Cassel.

Musgrave's first season as OC with the Jaguars, Taylor had 1527 yards rushing which was the best season of his career. The other season Taylor had 1224 yards rushing.

In Musgrave's second season as Vikings OC, Adrian Peterson ran for a career best 2097 yards. Peterson had 1266 yards rushing the following season, also under Musgrave.

That could signal some big numbers for Latavius Murray or whomever else the Raiders bring on at the running back position.

His offenses as a whole have been fair to middling in some cases and bottom dwelling in others.

As far as the passing game, Musgrave has had a gallery of coach killers thrust upon him. His first season as an OC he had a 35-year-old Steve Beurlein in his final season as a fulltime starter. And it would get worse from there.

His first season as an NFL coach was in 1997 with the Raiders as a quarterbacks coach. His assignment? Jeff George. That season George managed to throw for nearly 4000 yards (3917) with 29 touchdowns to 9 interceptions. It was the best season of his career.

That means he managed to get career years out of the likes of Jeff George, Steve Beurlein, Byron Leftwich, Mark Brunell, and Mark Sanchez while also being credited with the development of Matt Ryan who was just named to his third Pro Bowl.

He was next quarterbacks coach in Carolina and in his first season there, Steve Beurlein also had a career year, throwing for 4436 yards with 36 touchdowns to 15 interceptions.

In his second year in Jacksonville as offensive coordinator, Musgrave was also given the title of QB coach. Byron Leftwich had the best season of his career that year, throwing for 2941 yards with 15 TD's to 10 INT.

In one season in Washington in 2005, Musgrave had a 35-year-old Mark Brunell as his QB. Brunell threw for 3050 yards with 23 TD's and 10 INT. It was the most TD's Brunell had ever thrown, the third best passer rating of his career, and the last time he was a fulltime starter in the NFL.

Musgrave was the QB coach in Atlanta for the first three seasons of Matt Ryan's career. Ryan was named to a Pro Bowl in his third season, throwing for a then career high 3705 yards with 28 TD's to 9 INT. The Falcons finished 13-3 that year but lost to the Packersin the playoffs.

Last season with the Eagles, after losing Nick Foles to injury midseason, he coached Mark Sanchez to by far the best passer rating of his career (88.4), a good ten points higher than his previous best.

So Musgrave seemed to got the most out of the talent that he had. As you can see, the offenses under Musgrave have been mediocre at best, but part of that had to do with the talent he had to work with. In other words, it's a combination of his coaching and the talent he had, and it's not easy to tell which one had more of an effect over the other. But you cannot certainly say that the offense was mediocre at best because of only one of these factors. Both have to be taken into account.

Part 2: Our Offense in 2015

I hope we get some talent on offense in 2015, because even if we had Trestman, or any OC, the offense as it stands is not good enough to pass mediocre, unless Carr become a top 7 QB overnight.

If you see the list of what makes a good offense above, you will see that without 3 and/or 4, your offense will fail. If you don't have 5 (a good OL), then your offense will struggle. you can have a good HC, and a good OC, but if you don't have the right QB or any weapons, the offense will be bad anyways. You need players to execute, as coaches are never the sole reason for a team winning games. You need the talent.

It seems like we may have a good QB in Carr, but he needs talent around him. Badly. I'm hoping we get some good talent in free agency and/or the draft (WRs for the most part), because without any talent surrounding the QB, again, the offense will fail.

Sorry guys. But those who don't like Musgrave will have reason to whine and whine and whine if we don't get any offensive talent to surround Carr. If we do grab talent to surround Carr, then we may be able to squeak out a surprisingly good offense.

But until then, those who hate Musgrave should remain patient. Those who like Musgrave should remain patient. Again, it's never JUST the coaches fault when an offense fails, so we must wait until after preseason when our free agent pickups and draft picks are determined where they will be in the lineup of 2015 based on camp and preseason in order to start evaluation BOTH our players, and our COACHES.