Both Bookmaker.eu and Sportsbook.ag have all-time high opening point totals. Bookmaker opened at 57.5, which beat out the previous high of 57 set by the Saints vs Colts in 2009. Sportsbook’s total is up to 60. Their previous high was 56, also by the Saints vs Colts.
It’s pretty easy to see what this Super Bowl and the 2009 Super Bowl had in common — elite QB play. That game was peak Peyton Manning versus peak Drew Brees. This game is Tom Brady playing some of the best football of his career vs likely NFL MVP Matt Ryan.
The offenses they run make up two of the top four in the league. The Falcons have the league’s second ranked offense (415.8 ypg) and third ranked passing offense (295.3). The Patriots have the league’s fourth ranked offense (386.2) and passing offense (269.2).
It’s the defense where the Patriots outperform the Falcons. They’re 8th in the league allowing 326 yards per game while the Falcons are just ahead of the Raiders at 25th allowing 371 yards per game.
This is likely why the Patriots are 3-point favorites in the game.
Then again, the Patriots haven’t faced a quarterback this season with a passer rating in the top ten. Matt Ryan will be the first. He has the league’s top passer rating among starting quarterbacks at 117.1. That could change things.