Expectations for the kind of season Marshawn Lynch will have are all over the map it seems. It’s anyone’s guess, really, considering Lynch hasn’t taken a snap in since November 15, 2015 and turned 31 in April.
The latest prediction comes from the NFL Total Access crew which includes Derek’s brother David — who admits he’s a bit biased -- and Ike Taylor.
The question was an over/under on stats put up by Marshawn Lynch for carries, yards per game, and touchdowns on the season.
David and Ike seem to be in agreement on their predictions. They used Lynch’s averages while with the Seahawks to ask if he will have more or less.
Their responses were that he will have less than 19.7 carries per game, more than 77.4 yards per game, and more than 9.5 touchdowns on the season.
The reason given for less than 19.7 carries per game is the presence of Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington as change-of-pace backs. I agree with this projection. Lynch had fewer than 19.7 carries per game in each of his last three seasons in Seattle and was at 17.5 carries per game in his final full season in 2014. It’s been my feeling that he would carry the ball around 250 times, which would be 15.6 carries per game.
To hit the over on 77.4 yards per game while averaging 15.6 carries per game, Lynch would have to average at least 5 yards per carry — something he has done just once in his career (2012) — and reach around 1250 yards rushing this season. That’s certainly possible, but a bit ambitious. I would have taken the under on that one.
In a recent S&BP poll, the largest percentage of fans (30%) project Lynch will run between 1000-1099 yards and the majority of fans (72%) have him not reaching the 1200-yard threshold. That’s far more realistic.
As for the TD projection, double digit touchdowns is certainly not out of the question. He averaged 12 touchdowns in each of his last four full seasons.