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Planning for the Immediate Future of the Nomadic Raiders

While 2018 is a year many Raiders fans wish they can like the Adam Sandler movie 'Click' use a magical remote control to either rewind to Xmas Eve 2016 or fast forward to the offseason, the plan Jon Gruden has implemented has some semblance of a salvageable future. The roster was gutted all around however there are some areas that can be managed. I have a plan that could result in being competitive next year, possibly a playoff team by year three, and a Super Bowl champion in year 6 or 7.

Many will laugh at how ridiculous that sounds seeing how it seems like this franchise is a lost cause and is currently the laughing stock of all of sports. However look at some legendary coaches historically and their first years. Bill Walsh was 2-14 his first year with the 49ers and 8-24 combined his first two years. He eventually went 3-0 in the Super Bowl. Jimmy Johnson also went 1-15 and a combined 8-24 his first two seasons as head coach of the Dallas Cowboys before winning back to back Super Bowls in years 4 and 5. Bill Parcells went 3-12-1 his first season before winning the first of 2 Super Bowl titles with the New York Giants in year 4. Bill Belichek also went 5-11 and finished last in the AFC East his first year with the Patriots and hasn't had a non-winning season since.

Now many will scoff saying Jon Gruden may have done enough already to alienate himself from potential free agents for the foreseeable future given his track record with former Tampa Bay Bucs players and the Raiders team he inherited (including some who signed even after he arrived this year). Although to play devil's advocate, players won't care about history if they are taken care of financially. Also there are no excuses after this year. Gruden has his primary two coordinators under contract for three more years and he will have completely overhauled the roster in his image. In order for outsiders to buy in around the league however just like potentially lucrative stock for investors, there has to be positive trend sooner rather than later. Here are the ways I can see things showing positive growth and players can quickly forget about the 2018 dysfunctional semi-pro franchise this Raiders team was.

1. Fire Tom Cable at Season's End or Before

From 2014 - 2017 under Tony Sparano (RIP) and Mike Tice the Raiders offensive lines had given up a total of 103 sacks. That is an average of under 26 sacks per season or 1.5 per game. This season under Tom Cable, with your week 1 starters accounting for $31.5 million of the team's cap figure have given up 24 sacks already, an average of 3 sacks per game.

I don't even care to discuss the zone blocking scheme fit. Pass protection is Gruden's justification for why used 2 of his first 3 picks on offensive tackles and it has been an utter disaster. The backups and rookies that the offensive line coach is supposed to develop have been amongst the worst in the NFL. In order to protect your franchise QB whether it is Derek Carr or somebody else in 2019, nothing gets accomplished as long as they can't be protected. Cable has proven he isn't up for the task with his offensive lines in Seattle being rated among the worst in the NFL during his tenure and the difference in performance from last year to this for the Raiders has solidified that assessment.

2. Keep #4 Around At Least Through 2019 Unless You Can Secure a Good Return

Alex Smith was considered a bust for several years and the 49ers were mocked for drafting him first overall along with several other teams that passed on Aaron Rodgers 13 years ago. However he has become a solid QB that has won more games than he's lost and last year was playing at a NFL MVP caliber level with over 4,000 yards passing, 26 TDs, only 5 Ints, and another 355 yards rushing. His first 6 seasons were a wash having a different OC every year until Jim Harbaugh was hired. He finally had some stability and continuity after so many seasons of turnover.

Why can't this work for Derek Carr? I understand looking at how listless Gruden and Greg Olson's offense has looked this year with Carr, maybe he can't be salvaged however again the team will be completely different but the system, play design, and play callers will all have another season together with Carr under center. Also Mark Davis has to sell PSLs and is having difficulty doing so. He will have even more difficulty making the Vegas stadium if Carr is replaced with some journeyman or a draft pick that Gruden so far has proven he is not capable of developing.

Some may say Carr isn't capable of leading a team to a Super Bowl. How would they know if he's never been given a chance to succeed with the same offensive line for more than 2 seasons or the same OC or QB coach for multiple seasons? Nick Foles led the Eagles to a Super Bowl. Colin Kaepernick was a 4th down fail away from winning a Super Bowl. Carr isn't a lost cause in my humble opinion yet.

3. In the 2019 NFL Draft, Do Not Use Any 1st Round Picks on Offense

The Raiders have thrown their two rookie OTs to the wolves this year. They are having growing pains as expected but this should help them eventually become at the very least serviceable linemen at the NFL level as they become seasoned veterans. Don't give up on them after 1 year. The 2019 draft also isn't heavy on WRs at the top however there is talent to be had all over. Also look at the following players, Michael Thomas, Tyreek Hill, Antonio Brown, Adam Thielen, Keenan Allen and as recent as this past draft, Courtland Sutton. All of these receivers are studs and not one was drafted in the 1st round of the NFL draft or in Thielen's case was undrafted.

The 2018 Raiders are on pace to be the worst defense in the history of the franchise. They have probably the worst linebacking depth chart in the entire NFL. The safeties they've given minutes to are the most limited in the NFL. They are dead last in sacks and pressures by a wide margin. The 2019 draft, other than offensive line, is defense-heavy. This is the best chance to get blue chip prospects to build this front seven into something respectable. They must go all in on defense. Look at the Carolina Panthers for example. Other than 2016 when they went 6-10, have consistently been a playoff contender despite Cam Newton's deficiencies. The Jacksonville Jaguars were 1 game away from the Super Bowl with Blake Bortles at QB because they prioritized defense. A quick turnaround usually means a QB protecting the football and a dominant defense to back them.

4. See Number 3 and Use the Same Formula to Attack Free Agency

Apparently Paul Guenther is a quality NFL coach. I haven't seen it yet but I assume he has to have done something right for the Bengals to retain him for as long as they did. The Raiders will have likely near $100 million in cap space this coming offseason. Signing 2-3 quality free agents on defense can be the difference in an additional 2-3 wins per season possibly. If the Raiders can lure some quality defensive players to support their 3 cornerstones on defense in the April 2019 draft possibly overpay if need be, they should. Maybe we can see if Guenther is worth his weight.

There are the four ways I believe we can possibly secure a quick turnaround. Let me know what you think or if there is anything I may have left off the list. Until then, shield your eyes on Sunday.