Each week, Football Outsiders simulates the remainder of the season 30,000 times and gives a breakdown of the paths every NFL team’s season could take based on their DVOA metric.
DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value over Average. It looks heavily at every single NFL play and compares a team’s performance to the league average while factoring in strength of schedule.
FO also uses a metric called DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, to quantify individual player performance relative to the league average replacement player. Think of DYAR as football’s answer to baseball’s WAR metric.
For a further explanation of DVOA and DYAR, click here.
After a 3-4 start, FO has the Oakland Raiders making the playoffs in 25.9 percent of situations, a 5.3 percent slide from last week.
Their chances of winning the Super Bowl sit at a lowly 0.3 percent, while the likelihood of the Raiders finishing with a bottom 5 record lies at 3.8 percent. With the incoming Bears’ first-rounder factored in, the Raiders have a 9.5 percent total chance to grab a top 5 pick.
The Lions make the playoffs in only 12.4 percent of simulations, as they’re in a much tougher division and conference. They win the Super Bowl 0.1 percent of the time, and grab a top 5 pick in 2.1 percent of simulations.
Overall DVOA: 0.5 percent below average, No. 17 overall
Team Offense: 12.0 percent above average, No. 8 overall
Team Defense: 14 percent below average, No. 28 overall
Overall DVOA: 3.2 percent above average, No. 14 overall
Team Offense: 3.8 percent above average, No. 13 overall
Team Defense: 5.4 percent below average, No. 22 overall
Derek Carr sits at No. 7 in Quarterback DYAR, just behind Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson and ahead of Kirk Cousins and Tom Brady. For all of the flak that Carr takes, he’s been the most steadying force for this team. Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford has been the fourth best quarterback this season by DYAR.
Josh Jacobs places at No. 8 overall in Rushing DYAR with 86 yards above replacement level. The top five includes Dalvin Cook at a whopping 239, Ezekiel Elliott at 178, Christian McCaffrey at 166, Nick Chubb at 127 and Aaron Jones at 117.
The Raiders don’t have a single receiver in the top 70 of positional DYAR because Tyrell Williams has missed too much time to qualify. If he did qualify, Williams would be tied with Detroit’s Kenny Golladay at No. 19 overall.
As Darren Waller has fully broken out this year, he sits as the second best tight end in the NFL by DYAR, placing just behind Austin Hooper.