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A look at the Raiders and Chiefs by advanced metrics

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NFL: Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

The Raiders performed so poorly against the Jets that they dropped from No. 11 in Total DVOA to No. 24 overall. That’s by far the largest fall of the week and further puts their no-show in perspective.

Oakland’s playoff odds suffered more than anyone else in the league as well, going from making the playoffs in 50.5 percent of Football Outsiders’ 30,000 rest of season simulations to just 20.0 percent. They desperately need a win against Kansas City this week, but it won’t come easy against a team that wins the Super Bowl in 6.0 percent of simulations, the fifth best mark in the league.

The formula the Raiders must follow to beat the Chiefs is relatively simply: Run the ball down at will to grind out time of possession and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field.

With the Raiders defense sitting at No. 31 overall in DVOA (BIG YIKES) and the Chiefs offense at No. 4 overall with the No. 3 ranked pass offense, it’s easy to see why keeping Andy Reid’s offense off the field as much as possible is key. The Raiders simply don’t have the speed in the secondary to keep up with Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman down the field, nor do they have a defender capable of matching up mano a mano with Travis Kelce.

But with the Chiefs defense sitting at No. 30 in run defense DVOA, the Raiders should be able to grind things out and will rely on the men in the trenches to lead them.

The Raiders offensive line has been the heart of this team, but oddly enough they’ve come back to Earth a bit over the last couple weeks while playing against the Bengals and Jets.

While ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate Top 10 lists were once littered with every Raiders starter, the only Raider who remains in the Top 10 at his position is Trent Brown, tied for No. 4 in the NFL with a 93 percent Win Rate. Despite that, the Raiders still sit at No. 3 in Pass Block Win Rate as a team.

As always, click here for an in-depth explanation of DVOA and DYAR.

DVOA Breakdown:


Overall DVOA: 9.9 percent below average, No. 24 overall

Team Offense: 6.5 percent above average, No. 9 overall

(No. 9 overall in pass offense, No. 14 overall in rush offense)

Team Defense: 15.5 percent below average, No. 31 overall

(No. 30 overall in pass defense, No. 23 overall in rush defense)


Overall DVOA: 27.3 percent above average, No. 4 overall

Team Offense: 23.8 percent above average, No. 3 overall

(No. 2 overall in pass offense, No. 20 overall in rush offense)

Team Defense: 1.8 percent above average, No. 14 overall

(No. 6 overall in pass defense, No. 30 overall in rush defense)

DYAR Breakdown:

Derek Carr dropped from No. 7 to No. 8 in DYAR after struggling against the Jets, but he still sits just above Deshaun Watson, Tom Brady, and Jimmy Garoppolo in cumulative stats.

Patrick Mahomes is No. 3 overall because he missed a few games, but sits at No. 1 in DVOA. That means, despite all the hoopla over Lamar Jackson, Mahomes is still the most statistically effective quarterback this season. That’s not to put Jackson down by any means, he sits at No. 3 in DVOA and No. 4 in DYAR.

Josh Jacobs remains at No. 5 in DYAR for the third week in a row, while Kansas City’s rotating stable of runners doesn’t have any DYAR qualifiers.

Raiders top receivers Tyrell Williams and Hunter Renfrow both played quite poorly last Sunday, but they still sit at No. 18 and No. 40, respectively in DYAR this season. With Renfrow out for at least a few weeks and possibly the rest of the season, his place on this list will fall precipitously by season’s end.

Despite missing multiple games, Tyreek Hill ranks No. 20 in DYAR and is quickly rising up the list. Meanwhile, Sammy Watkins has been below replacement level this season with a -7 DYAR, good for No. 59 among 66 qualifying receivers.

This matchup will feature the No. 2 and No. 3 tight ends in DYAR in Travis Kelce and Darren Waller, respectively. Both still sit behind breakout tight end Austin Hooper.