FanPost

Derek Carr's Analytic Transformation as a Jon Gruden Student (poll ? added)

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After Derek Carr's first season, which saw him go through two HCs and Greg Olson as his "guru", which included an 0-10 start and an admirable 3-3 finish (knocking 2 teams, 49ers and Steelers, out of the playoffs) most fans and critics thought he earned every chance to win the frachise job. An analytics critic, however, saw alarming analytic holes in his output and wrote a critical article outlining those deficienceies.

The truth is that this anaytics question had dogged Carr's young career. When people use the word "checkdown" they are knowingly or unknowingly using this crtiticism. It's about Carr's low yard-per-attempt figures, essentially. I've always maintained that this is a product of the way Carr was taught in his very first season as an NFL QB. Olson placed ball security ahead of everything that season. I have always believed Olson's initial influence made Carr a MUCH more timid QB than he otherwise would have been.

Carr's SEMI-reprieve did arrive with Musgrave in 2015. But even with Musgave what rarely, if ever, improved was his analytic figures, even in 2016 Derek Carr's best MVP-like season, his seasonal (analytic-driven) QBR was 56. Good for 16th.

This year Carr's averaging a 65 QBR that is climbing every week while others fall (65 is a TOP TEN QBR curretly at #9). 2 of Carr's last 3 games are top 3 QBR games, #2 and #3. Check the stats below!

QBR stats-click here

Carr's Texas game 8 days ago (finale of 5-game road trip from HELL) was good for 12th that week. Carr has 4 top 6 QBR games, so far, including a 2nd and 3rd two of the past 3 weeks. He's improving leaps and bounds! He was rated 2nd against DET. Stafford was 12th on analytic importance, even though he threw for over 400yds and Carr for 295. Carr was the better, more efficient, accurate QB. I don't have yesterday's final play to renfrow but it was a BEAUTY.

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Carr and Gruden are creating a offensive identity that are both unique and promising. It goes without saying that #28 Jacobs is critical, but this offense is HIGHLY complex around the young rookie. Look what Gruden did with Gannon-Garner in the early 2000s. They became a 3-headed unstoppable monster Gruden's dyamic system utilizes Carr's and Jacobs' individual strengths to a T and today's triumavarite is giving us tangible evidence (PRODUCTION) that system (design), and approach (playcallig) matter to a QB and RB's long term success and without an ideal system and process a given QB or RB's skills will too often dry up like an old sun-baked grape...dead on the vine.

That an NFL QB can improve in the middle of his career, which seldom, if ever, happens, let alone dramatically, is eerily reminiscent of Jim Plunkett and Rich Gannon. Derek Carr is on the verge of joining a highly improbable pantheon of Raider Greats while playing in his 6th season. Both Gannon and Plunkett were near 10-year vets before taking their games to individual heights that we will never forget. Carr's young history already includes 17 4th/qr comebacks, including last week's.

Today's QBR analytics are spewing out countless reems of computer information about Carr's asension (among other things) while the geeks who monitor this informartion are asleep at the switch. And Carr's achieving the distinction of a much higher QBR "standing" without a complete WR situation and with several rookies (who are doing their collective parts as teammates). These Analytic "dudes" have seemingly been alseep for a while, meannwhile Derek Carr and his loyal fans are watching his production, his precision, his Raiders' pride lead a young limiltless team to brand new heights as DC4 takes his whole game to an elite level; the analytics DO NOT LIE and they cannot be manufactured where they don't exist - after 6 LONG seasons Carr is finally getting the teaching he deserves (Phd level). Thank you, Jon Gruden. You are NOT just a leader of men, though you most definitely are that ( you're a bona fide teacher of the Sport of Football) - and with Mayock, Carr, and Jacobs (and countless young up and coming defenders) you possess the Right Stuff to win Championships as a HC.

For Carr detractors the future is brighter than you'll ever know.

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