When Oakland Raiders host the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday Night Football, it will be the final meeting between two longtime AFC West rivals in Oakland, and the final AFC West home game the Raiders will host in Northern California.
As such, it is the perfect game to be showcased in primetime on Thursday Night Football.
It also means the betting lines will be a little more stagnant than they might be in a normal week.
Most sports books, including the online book OddsShark, opened with the Chargers as a one-point favorite. The over/under lies between 48 and 48.5, depending on the site.
The Raiders are +1.5 (-105) at 5Dimes.com, while the Chargers are seen at -1 (-115) on Bovada. The best moneyline for each teams comes in at the aforementioned 5Dimes.com, where the Chargers are -118, and the Raiders are +108.
But before you place any bets, note that the Chargers are 3-5-1 against the spread in 2019, while the Raiders are 5-3 against the spread.
As of Monday night, the Chargers are getting 57 percent of the public’s money, while 64 percent of the public is betting the Over.
Perhaps more importantly, the Chargers are averaging 20.3 points per game offensively, and only give up 18.7 points per game. Oakland averages 22.8 points per game offensively, while giving up 27 points on average.
If the two teams just play to their offensive averages, the under seems like to hit. If the tempo goes the way the Chargers prefer to play, the under is the correct decision. But if it is a Raiders-style shootout that fans are accustomed to, the over could end up being the right call.
Lastly, a quick look at some league-wide Thursday night trends, for the first half of the 2019 season:
- Across nine weeks, the two teams playing went over on the Over/Under four times, and under five times.
- The favorite going into the game is 2-7 against the spread, but 5-4 straight up.
- The home team has been the favorite in six of the first nine Thursday Night games. Of those six, only New England covered the spread. Of the three road favorites, only Kansas City in Week 7 covered the spread.
If those trends continue, and the line stays under three (3) points, that figures to work in the Raiders’ favor.
But ultimately oddsmakers do not play the game. Philip Rivers, Joey Bosa, and Melvin Ingram III against Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs and the rest of Jon Gruden’s squad will decide how this all-important AFC West contest ends.