Last week, we took a look at where they Raiders stood relative to the rest of the league based on Football Outsiders’ 30,000 weekly simulations. These simulations are guided by a mixture of preseason projections and DVOA, the football answer to baseball’s WAR statistic.
If you’d like to know more about DVOA, click here.
After grabbing a key win against Detroit on Sunday, Oakland’s playoff chances were boosted by 6.4 percent, sitting now at 32.3. This means that the Raiders make the playoffs in about a third of simulations, while the Chiefs make it in 90.8 percent of the time and the Chargers make it 9.6 percent of the time.
With last week’s win, the Raiders odds at landing a top 5 pick dropped from 3.8 percent to 0.7 percent. But with the Bears’ recent skid, Oakland has a 8.2 percent shot at picking in the top 5 overall. Did somebody say Isaiah Simmons!?
The most likely Super Bowl scenario that the Raiders could find themselves in would be a wild “Bay Area Bowl,” which occurs in 0.4 percent of simulations. The second most likely Super Bowl opponent that the Raiders could face if everything (and I mean everything) broke right would be the Green Bay Packers. That Week 7 rematch occurs in an infinitesimal 0.1 percent of simulations.
Overall DVOA: 3.2 percent above average, No. 15 overall
Team Offense: 16.2 percent above average, No. 5 overall
(No. 3 overall in pass offense, No. 6 overall in Rush offense)
Team Defense: 14.4 percent below average, No. 29 overall
(No. 29 overall in pass defense, No. 11 overall in rush defense)
Overall DVOA: 1 percent below average, No. 19 overall
Team Offense: 7.2 percent above average, No. 9 overall
(No. 9 overall in pass offense, No. 25 overall in rush offense)
Team Defense: 7.3 percent below average, No. 26 overall
(No. 21 overall in pass defense, No. 25 overall in rush defense)
Derek Carr moved up from No. 7 to No. 5 in Quarterback DYAR after a strong showing against the Lions. He sits only behind Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford and Deshaun Watson. On the other hand, Philip Rivers remains steady as ever at almost 38 years old, placing at No. 9 in overall Quarterback DYAR.
Carr wasn’t the only Raider who moved up the list this past week, as Josh Jacobs’ excellent effort punched him up from No. 8 to No. 4 in Rushing DYAR. The Chargers best qualifying runner? Austin Ekeler, who does more work in the passing game and sits at No. 28 on the Rushing DYAR list.
While Keenan Allen is thought to be one of the best receivers in the game, Tyrell Williams actually has a better Receiving DYAR than him in limited time. Allen ranks No. 22 in receiving DYAR this season, while Williams would be tied with Cooper Kupp at No. 14 if he had played enough snaps to qualify.
Powering the way for Oakland is the Raiders beefy, bully-ball offensive line, which sits at No. 4 in adjusted line yards (a measure of run blocking success) and No. 2 in adjusted sack rate. The turnaround in the offensive line has been the major catalyst for this team’s overall DVOA ranking, and the impact has permeated throughout the rest of the offense.
While aiming to overcome injuries, the Chargers offensive line surprisingly ranks No. 7 in adjusted sack rate, but they’re much worse paving the way for runners, placing at No. 21.
Conversely, the Raiders defensive line places at No. 24 in adjusted sack rate, while the Chargers sit at No. 17. Considering that Los Angeles employs Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, that No. 17 ranking should rise by season’s end.