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A look at the Raiders and Jaguars by advanced metrics

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NFL: Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports

The Raiders head into their final home matchup at the Coliseum looking to snap a three game losing streak. Luckily for them, they’ll take on a flailing Jacksonville Jaguars team that hasn’t tasted victory since Week 8.

Then again, a loss to the Jags might put an exclamation point on a precipitous fall from the upper echelon of the league. Consider that prior to the taking on the Jets, sitting at 6-4, the Raiders placed No. 11 in Overall DVOA and have now fallen to No. 23 after three abysmal showings. The offense has taken a hit, dropping from No. 7 to No. 11 overall, while the defense now ranks only above the Miami Dolphins island of misfit toys at No. 31.

A quick peruse of the Jaguars DVOA splits would lead one to believe that they’re simply not good at anything this year. But this game will actually showcase a solid strength-on-strength matchup between the Raiders offensive line and the Jaguars talented defensive front.

It will also be a good chance for Raiders fans to get a close look at Josh Allen, the rookie defensive end who the Raiders passed on to take Clelin Ferrell at No. 4 overall.

Despite their slide, the Raiders still sit at No. 3 in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate metric, a stat that measures how often blockers can sustain their blocks for 2.5 seconds or longer. Oakland touts a 65 percent Pass Block Win Rate, behind only the Green Bay Packers (70 percent) and Baltimore Ravens (68 percent). They’ll be put to the test against a Jaguars defensive line that places seventh in Pass Rush Win Rate.

Conversely, the Jaguars offensive line versus the Raiders defensive line will pit too ineffective units up against each other. Jacksonville’s offensive line sits at No. 25 in the Pass Block Win Rate, while the Raider defensive line has been struggling along with the No. 29 mark, ahead of only the Broncos, Dolphins and Lions.

DVOA Breakdown:


Overall DVOA: 13.3 percent below average, No. 23 overall

Team Offense: 4.8 percent above average, No. 11 overall

(No. 13 overall in pass offense, No. 17 overall in rush offense)

Team Defense: 16.6 percent below average, No. 31 overall

(No. 31 overall in pass defense, No. 27 overall in rush defense)


Overall DVOA: 21.7 percent below average, No. 25 overall

Team Offense: 11.8 percent below average, No. 26 overall

(No. 24 overall in pass offense, No. 27 overall in rush offense)

Team Defense: 11.3 percent below average, No. 29 overall

(No. 21 overall in pass defense, No. 31 overall in rush defense)

DYAR Breakdown:

While the Raiders were shellacked last Sunday, Derek Carr played well and saw a boost from No. 9 to No. 8 in overall DYAR.

Gardner Minshew’s No. 22 DYAR doesn’t fully express his level of play because it is a cumulative stat and he hasn’t played every game, but his No. 22 overall DVOA suggests that he’s firmly in the bottom third of starting NFL quarterbacks at the moment.

Josh Jacobs’ DYAR ranking dropped from No. 6 to No. 7 because he didn’t play on Sunday. But with news that he’s likely to be back in the fold this week, he shouldn’t drop much further. Leonard Fournette, on the other hand, hasn’t been as effective running behind a much worse offensive line. He sits at No. 23 in Rushing DYAR despite being the focal point of the Jacksonville offense.

After another frustrating performance, Tyrell Williams dropped from No. 25 to No. 29 in receiving DYAR. Jacksonville’s top option, DJ Chark, sits at No. 21 in DYAR, but may not play after being labeled as “week-to-week” by head coach Doug Marrone after suffering an ankle injury this past Sunday.

Despite his costly fumble, Darren Waller still had a brilliant showing for the Raiders against Tennessee and was vaulted to the No. 1 spot in tight end DYAR for the first time all season.

Waller has gone from complete unknown to one of the most elite tight end options in the NFL and has made a case for an All-Pro nod.