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How do the Raiders and Broncos stack up by advanced metrics?

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NFL: Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

In what may be our last DVOA breakdown of the season, the Raiders and Broncos look quite evenly matched by overall DVOA, placing at No. 24 and No. 24, respectively.

With Josh Jacobs missing two of the last three weeks, and playing rather inefficiently against the Jaguars, the Raiders rushing offense has fallen all the way to No. 20 in DVOA.

But after Derek Carr’s excellent performance against the Chargers, the pass offense sits at No. 7, bringing the total offensive DVOA to No. 8. If you came to me after the Antonio Brown kerfuffle and told me this offense would be top 10 in the NFL entering Week 17, I wouldn’t have believed you.

Based on Football Outsiders’ 30,000 Week 17 simulations, the Raiders make the playoffs 7.6 percent of the time. The Titans grab the No. 6 seed in the AFC Playoff picture 63.1 percent of the time, and the Steelers get in 29.3 percent of the time.

Considering that not a single one of FO’s 30,000 end of season simulations had the Raiders making the playoff prior to their Week 16 win, a 7.6 percent chance is an infinite increase.

DVOA Breakdown:


Overall DVOA: 11.8 percent below average, No. 24 overall

Team Offense: 6.2 percent above average, No. 8 overall

(No. 7 overall in pass offense, No. 20 overall in rush offense)

Team Defense: 16.6 percent below average, No. 31 overall

(No. 30 overall in pass defense, No. 24 overall in rush defense)


Overall DVOA: 8.0 percent below average, No. 23 overall

Team Offense: 8.3 percent below average, No. 26 overall

(No. 26 overall in pass offense, No. 14 overall in rush offense)

Team Defense: 2.8 percent above average, No. 14 overall

(No. 15 overall in pass defense, No. 18 overall in rush defense)

DYAR Breakdown:

Derek Carr is all the way up to No. 6 in quarterback DYAR this season, while placing at No. 8 in DVOA. If the Raiders decide to move on from him this offseason. Whatever your take is on Carr, efficiency metrics like DVOA paint him as one of the top signal callers in the league, which is some good food for thought that pairs well with Christmas ham.

Josh Jacobs has fallen to No. 11 in rushing DYAR after missing two games this season, and he sits at No. 13 in DVOA. Phillip Lindsay is right behind Jacobs in DYAR at No. 12, and right above him in DVOA, also at No. 12.

Tyrell Williams sits at No. 16 in receiving DYAR, but is remarkably No. 3 in the NFL in DVOA, behind only Chris Godwin and Calvin Ridley for the most efficient receiver in the NFL. So for all of those calling for Williams head this offseason, realize that he’s actually been super efficient when targeted despite dealing with lingering plantar fasciitis.

Williams made 4 catches on 4 targets for 82 yards last week. If he isn’t forced to be the No. 1 option next season, his efficiency will be even more of a boon to this offense.

Broncos breakout receiver Courtland Sutton actually sits right behind Williams in DYAR at No. 17, but is down at No. 25 in terms of DVOA.

And at tight end, Darren Waller is No. 1 in DYAR once again, a spot that he will likely finish the season with unless he is totally blanked against Denver.

The Broncos top pick, Noah Fant, has been dead average with a 0 DYAR this season that puts him at No. 29 in the league. He’s at No. 29 in DVOA as well.

That suggests that Foster Moreau was a much more effective rookie tight end than Fant by efficiency standards this season. Despite being out for the season, Moreau still ranks No. 13 in cumulative DYAR and sits at No. 3 in DVOA, higher than even Waller’s No. 4 mark.