Over the past two weeks, the Raiders playoff odds have taken an immense hit per Football Outsiders’ 30,000 weekly rest of season simulations. While they made playoffs in 50.1 percent of simulations while sitting at 6-4 heading into the Jets game, they now make playoffs only 10.7 percent of the time.
That number might as well hit zero if the Raiders don’t take down a 7-5 Titans squad that has now punched its way into the AFC playoff picture after winning three straight and five of their last six. The Titans have a well-rounded offensive attack that ranks No. 13 in rush offense and No. 12 in pass offense despite suffering through 5.5 games of Marcus Mariota.
The biggest worry for the Raiders is the Titans stout run defense that sits at No. 4 in DVOA. Inability to establish the run destroyed the Raiders offense against the Jets and through their whole gameplan out of whack. This will be a very important game for Derek Carr to take advantage of a subpar Tennessee secondary, but he may have a tough go of things if it rains on Sunday in Oakland as currently anticipated.
As always, click here for an in-depth explanation of DVOA and DYAR.
Overall DVOA: 11.3 percent below average, No. 22 overall
Team Offense: 4.5 percent above average, No. 11 overall
(No. 11 overall in pass offense, No. 15 overall in rush offense)
Team Defense: 14.1 percent below average, No. 31 overall
(No. 28 overall in pass defense, No. 26 overall in rush defense)
Overall DVOA: 0.4 percent below average, No. 16 overall
Team Offense: 2.9 percent above average, No. 12 overall
(No. 12 overall in pass offense, No. 13 overall in rush offense)
Team Defense: 1.6 percent below average, No. 18 overall
(No. 24 overall in pass defense, No. 4 overall in rush defense)
Carr now sits at No. 9 among all quarterbacks in DYAR, mostly because of a string of excellent early performances. At his peak this year, Carr had the No. 4 DYAR ranking in the league. There’s a wide gap between him and the No. 10 quarterback in DYAR, Jimmy Garoppolo, so he might not fall out of the Top 10 anytime soon.
Ryan Tannehill didn’t start at quarterback for the Titans until their seventh game of the season, so a cumulative stat like DYAR isn’t ideal to compare the two. But in quarterback DVOA, Tannehill sits at No. 8, while Carr places at No. 10 in the NFL.
After placing No. 5 in the league three weeks in a row, Josh Jacobs dropped to No. 6 with Nick Chubb overtaking him for the fifth spot. Meanwhile, Derek Henry is just outside of the Top 10 at No. 12.
Despite multiple no-show performances, Tyrell Williams still sits at No. 25 in DYAR on the season. That paints him as a capable, but not great No. 1 option for the offense. The calls to have him cut this offseason seem premature, especially considering he’s been dealing with lingering plantar fasciitis for most of the season. The Titans top receiver, rookie second-round pick A.J. Brown, sits at No. 22 in DYAR while Corey Davis places at No. 46.
While the Raiders lost brutally last Sunday, Darren Waller’s performance lifted him above Travis Kelce to the No. 2 spot in tight end DYAR behind Austin Hooper.