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For What It's Worth: Thoughts on the draft

I've done some mock drafts, but I don't really get into posting 5000 of them, because it's always just so much guessing; rarely does anyone here get more than one or two players. The same with the media, who clearly get paid to be wrong. There are areas of the roster that are generally agreed that need help, but as fans, we generally don't have the same ideas on the priority of those positions as the staff and front office do, and our draft boards are almost certainly significantly different, so there's really no way to 'get it right'. Generally, our mocks are reflections of what we want,Mather than what the team wants; as such, while somewhat amusing, they're kind of a waste of time, and this isn't about trying to mock the draft.

It's about what I think we may see in this draft, and why. I don't know about certain players, but I'm trying to look at this from the team view, and try to see if I can understand the thinking of Gruden and Mayock. I'll be pleasantly surprised if I get some of it right, but on the other hand, I won't hold my breath waiting for that to happen... lol

First, I don't believe that Murray is in our plans. Yes, it might play out that Carr is traded during the draft, but I just don't know that that is really a Gruden-style move; he has never drafted a QB in the first few rounds, and certainly not in the top 5. As hard as he is on QBs, and as fond as he is for veteran QBs, I just don't see it happening. Which means that I think that it's more likely that we see the area of the team that is most in need addressed early: pass rush. That doesn't mean that the first pick will be Edge, although I expect that it will impact the pass rush. I can easily see a player like Williams or Oliver being selected, which would help the pass rush, albeit from a different position. It may be that there's a trade that drops us down a handful of spots, but it's hard to say; while it would be nice to get additional picks in the second or third rounds in a draft that is pretty deep in some needed areas and without as many 'impact players as some other years, at the same time the team needs impact players. I'm not expecting many/any trades unless the board is shaking out exactly the way Gruden and Mayock hope.

I do think that there will be early picks spent on offense; TE if one of the top 3 slides very far, possibly OL (although I don't know that the position is as dire as some believe), and a long shot at WR. There are fewer needs on offense, but 1. that's Gruden's baby, and 2. the draft is set up to fall that way. We'll see, but it's almost an expectation for me.

I don't know how much influence that Guenther will have on the draft, but I expect that there will be more defensive than offensive players selected; need and talent look to line up that way this year. Not necessarily talent where some specifically see the biggest areas of need, but on that side of the ball, anyway.

I honestly don't expect more than 2-3 edge rushers to be taken, and certainly not multiple picks early. Not arguing right or wrong, but with weighing needs and BPA, that might be too much of what may be seen as reaching. I do think that there are some nice players that will be available in the middle rounds, enough to not press the issue. 'Address, don't press'...

I am expecting a pretty balanced class; this is not a draft that we can afford to be gambling much on players that are more developmental; while you weigh the upside, at this point the team can't afford to spend many/any picks on guys that can't contribute quickly. While both Gruden and Mayock (especially Gruden) have job security, they also want to start winning as soon as possible. Of course that can be done while gambling, the surer route is to build first, and gamble more later.

This will be an interesting draft, and the first round will give us a better idea of what to expect in the other rounds, more for us than any other team. With 3 picks in the first round, I think it's pretty obvious that we'll make the statement of where we're going early...