Give the fans a number of expected wins and you can bet they will pick the over. They may not put money on it, but their optimism knows no rival. To test this, SB Nation put out FanPulse surveys to fans of all 32 NFL teams with the over/under as Vegas oddsmakers see it and asked if they thought their team would go over, under, or push.
The results showed that few teams’ fans are more realistic and/or grounded about their team’s outlook this season than Raider Nation.
Don’t get me wrong, they were still strongly for the over — 72% of you said the Raiders would do better than the 6-win mark — but that is about as grounded as fans get.
As for the other 28% of Raiders fans; 21% say push and 7% picked the under.
Only seven teams’ fans had a lower percentage on the over than the Raiders. Only three of those had the line of 6 wins or fewer — the Cardinals (5), Giants (6), and Dolphins (5). Not surprisingly, all three made major quarterback additions during the draft.
The other two teams to make QB changes in the first two rounds of the draft were Washington (Dwayne Haskins) and Denver (Drew Lock). Washington fans have them at 85% over the 6.5-point win total, while the notoriously delusional Broncos fanbase sits at 86% over the 7-win mark — easily the highest expectations of any team to pick up a quarterback in the first two rounds.
For some perspective here, 11 teams’ fans are at 90% or higher picking the over and 17 have are at 80% or more.
Only two teams’ fans have less than 50% on the over — the Giants (48%) and Dolphins (31%).
Back in early April, when these lines first came out, I put out a piece detailing reasons both to bet the over and the under and asked readers to choose over, under, or push. The results were a little bit more on the over than the recent FanPulse, but still not unrealistic.
At 79% for the over, that would still have Raiders fans in the bottom half of fans in the FanPulse survey. Call it cautiously optimistic.
If you’d like to take part in future FanPulse surveys, you can opt in here.