This morning, the Superbook at the Westgate Las Vegas sportsbook released their first 2019 NFL MVP odds list. Both Derek Carr and Antonio Brown appear on it, although just a bit down the list.
The usual suspects are at the top, including last year’s MVP Patrick Mahomes at 4/1 and runner-up Drew Brees at 10/1. As you might expect, the top of the list with the best odds is dominated by quarterbacks, and the best odds for a non-quarterback is Alvin Kamara at 80/1.
Brown is the highest wide receiver listed at his 100/1 odds. Carr is the 17th quarterback on the list also at 100/1, behind Sam Darnold with the same odds on him. There are a few value plays here- the ones I look at as having the best investment are Tom Brady at 12/1 and Baker Mayfield and Matt Ryan at 25/1. Brees looked to hit a wall late last year, but if he returns to form he is always a threat to win MVP. My favorite longshot pick here is Deshaun Watson at 60/1. I think he may end up as the top fantasy quarterback this season, and if he puts up the stats he’s capable of, he will be in the hunt.
Carr and Brown’s 100/1 odds may seem like tremendous value and if the Raiders make the playoffs, they will both be heavily in contention for the award. My concern is that if one has success, so will the other, and the two may split votes making either of them actually winning the award difficult. In such a case, Carr as the QB is the more likely winner. Even so, surely Raider fans would be pleased to see the two players do well no matter who wins the MVP this season.