There’s a formula used in baseball analytics called the Pythagorean expectation that takes runs scored and runs allowed and projects win percentage. It's in Money Ball.
Assuming the Raiders need 9 wins to make the playoffs, a plausible route to that outcome, given the football version of the Pythagorean expectation, would be something along the lines of 410 points scored and
280 380 points allowed.
The 2019 Raiders would need to average:
- 25.6 pts scored per game
- 23.8 pts allowed per game
Benchmarked against 2018 totals, that would be
- 10th best pts scored -- tied with the Chicago Bears
- 20th best pts allowed -- tied with the Carolina Panthers.
- 18 spot jump in offensive ranking
- 12 spot jump in defensive ranking
To do this, the Raiders would need the following improvements over 2018:
- 17 additional touchdowns scored
- 12 fewer touchdowns and 1 field goal allowed
Why there might be hope:
During the Raiders best 6-game stretch last season, from Nov 18 to December 24, the Raiders averaged 23.3 pts scored and 26.7 pts allowed. For context, if they would have maintained those averages all season, the offense would rank 16th and the defense would rank 26th.
So, then the question is one of ascending from 16th to 10th on offense and 26th to 20th on defense -- not as much of a leap.
What do you think?:
Can the Raiders score 17 more touchdowns and give up 12 fewer with the team that is being assembled?