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Silver Minings: Raiders projected to beat Chargers per NFL Network’s Game Theory

Cynthia Frelund’s statistical model has Las Vegas moving to 4-0 on Monday Night Football

NFL: Baltimore Ravens at Las Vegas Raiders
Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

It might only be Week Four, but the upcoming Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers game already has a playoff-type of feel to it. The Raiders are currently tied for first place in the AFC West with a 3-0 record, and the Chargers are only a game behind them at 2-1.

With what’s expected to be a tight divisional race throughout the season, these early interdivisional matchups will play a big factor in what the postseason picture looks like come January. In other words, consider Monday Night Football the first “must-win” game for the Silver and Black.

The good news is NFL Network’s Cynthia Frelund is projecting a 28-27 Raiders victory in Los Angeles.

For those that are unaware, Frelund has developed a statistical model to make NFL predictions using a mathematical concept called Game Theory, which evaluates all of the potential decisions and outcomes that could be made during a game to come up with projection.

Frelund is 526-267-4 (66.3 percent win rate) on her projections since 2017, and she’s 31-15 (67.4 percent win rate) when picking games this season. So, that should give Raider fans a nice boost of confidence heading into Monday night.

The analyst also projects that Las Vegas has a 54 percent over covering the +3.5 point spread currently set by DraftKings Sportsbook. For those wondering, her model has the Chiefs beating the Eagles 29-21 and the Broncos losing to the Ravens 24-21. That would make for a good but not quite perfect weekend for the Raiders as they’d sit alone at the top of the division, but of course, a Kansas City loss would be a nice cherry on top.

The numbers are in the Silver and Black’s favor so hopefully, the game goes as expected.

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