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So, How Did the Chiefs Do in the Off-Season? –Part 2, the Defensive Front-7

In Part 1 of this series, we looked at the Chiefs' primary moves in the off-season on offense. Now, we turn to the defense.

Last year, depending on which stats you consider, KC fielded a defense which ranked somewhere between 11th and 14th in the NFL. But when you look at the moves they made in the off-season, there is cause to believe they could see at least a modest (and maybe even more significant) regression in their defensive play next year.

Let's begin with the strength of their defense, their d-line. And, more specifically, their interior d-line.

Below are the PFF scores and snaps played for the Chiefs defensive interior linemen and the projected interior linemen for 2021.

2020 C. Jones 90.3 689 snaps D. Nnadi 75.3 454 snaps K Saunders 64.3 72 snaps T. Wharton 66.2 511 snaps M. Pennel 68.5 321 snaps
2021 C. Jones D. Nnadi J. Reed (56.3 but with 9 sacks in 831 snaps in '20) T. Wharton N/A

Jones is an elite player, no way around it. In many ways, he IS the Chiefs defense. As Gus Bradley notes, "It all begins up front," and Jones projects to be every bit a great place to ‘begin' in 2021. ‘Nuff said.'

So let's look at the major change this off-season which is the projected departure of 2019, 3rd round pick, Khalen Saunders and rotational piece, Mike Pennel and their replacement on the roster by Jarran Reed.

The Chiefs signed Reed to a one-year, $5.5 million contract this off-season and overall and for most teams who will be facing the Chiefs this would seem a significant upgrade. I would expect to see Reed used more situationally than he was with the Seahawks (831 snaps for a d-lineman seems an insane workload) rotating in for Nnadi on passing downs while Wharton rotates in to spell Jones.

But you dig a little deeper and there is a problem, here -€”a problem of particular interest for Raiders fans.

While the Chiefs fielded a defense last year which ranked just outside the top-10, that ranking was based primarily on their passing game.

In the running game, the Chiefs ranked 21st in yards allowed over the season giving up 1954 yards over the season and 17th overall in yards allowed per rush attempt giving up 4.5 yards per carry. And while I realize the NFL, today, is pass-happy and the run game lacks the cache it once had, this is a weakness which can be exploited.

Consider the Chiefs loss in the Super Bowl.

Even though much of the focus in the Bucs win over KC in the Super Bowl was payed to Brady and the Bucs defense -€”and justifiably so- you can't overlook the contribution the Bucs run game made in that game. They rushed 33 times for a total of over 145 yards picking up 4.4 yards per attempt. This allowed them to win the ‘time of possession' contest 31:23 to 28:37.

Consider: In the pass-happy NFL, the Bucs won the Super Bowl while running on the majority of their plays. (33 rushing attempts out of 63 offensive snaps.)

And the Bucs weren't the only team to beat the Chiefs by relying on the run. We did it in week 5. In that game the Raiders ran the ball on half (31) of their plays racking up a total of 143 yds. The stats from that game eerily mirror the stats of the Bucs in the Super Bowl.

Compare that win to our loss to the Chiefs in Week 11 when we ran the ball only 23 times for 83 yards. I'm sure other factors -€”a better defensive scheme from Spagnuola, injuries on our o-line, etc.- can be argued to have contributed to this drop-off in our run game between the two contests. But I also think you can't overlook one, simple fact -€”we won in Week 5 and we lost in Week 11. Between the two games Jacobs took a lot of hits.

When you see the mediots thoughtfully pontificating about our "inexplicable" decision to add Drake to our backfield, keep this in mind.

Look, we Raiders fans have to realize we are in the middle of a Grand Experiment. To wit: can the ‘old school' precept of football which held your best offensive strategy was to establish the run so as to open up the pass, thus controlling the time of possession, actually work in the pass-dominate NFL of the 2020's?

And here's the thing, it might actually. Most teams are constructing their defenses to stop the pass providing a really good running team an opportunity to exploit their ‘passing-obsession' to the ‘really good running team's' advantage.

Which brings us back to the d-line. The reality is, the Chiefs (with the exception of the addition of LB Bolton discussed below) have done little to address this weakness in the run game.

Nnadi is their primary run stuffer whose jump in PFF score from 65.6 in 2019 to that 75.3 you see above came primarily because of a jump in his PFF run grade by 10 pts.

Yes, the addition of Reed to the group probably will result in the Chiefs getting a few more sacks next year, but you look at his run grade compared to Pennel's run grade and you see that in the run game, he's no upgrade at all. And, remember, the cost to the Chiefs for whatever additional sacks they see, will be $5.5 million. (Reed's price.)

Thus, on the interior, the Chiefs have yet to do anything to address their primary defensive weakness, the run.

And the same can be said when we turn to the defensive ends.

Below are the PFF scores and snaps played for the Chiefs DEs last year and next year's projected DEs.

.

2020

F. Clark

54.5

738 snaps

T. Charlton

67.6

89 snaps

M. Danna

61.8

325 snaps

Alex Okafor ' 57.6

269 snaps

T. Wharton

66.2

511 snaps

2021

F. Clark

T. Charlton

M. Danna

J. Kaindoh R 4th round.

T. Wharton

Can I go on a rant, here? And I'm about to use some pretty strong language. I hope it makes it past the Vox censors and, in the interest of not offending those of you with more delicate sensibilities, I'll underline said strong language so you can skip over it.

So, here goes.

It really frosts my knickers when I'm continually seeing references to Clelin Ferrell's ‘not living up' to his pick at number #4 overall in 2019 from mediots who barely mention the disaster that's been the Clark acquisition the Chiefs promulgated that same year.

Just a few days before we picked Cle at #4 overall, the always-‘brilliant' Chiefs also sought to address their DE position. They did so by trading their 2019 first rounder AND their 2020 2nd rounder to acquire Frank Clark. In the intervening two years, with the exception of sacks, Cle played as well as Clark in 2019 and he played significantly better than Clark last year.

Oh, and did I mention we've had Cle on a rookie contract these last two years while the Chiefs have shelled out north of $40 million dollars for Clark's services during the same time-frame? Jumpin' Jehoshaphat, folks, Gruden and Mayock look like freaking geniuses compared to Reid and his buddies when comparing these two transactions!

O.K., back to analysis.

Basically, the major difference, here, is the swapping of Okafor for 2021 4th round pick, Joshua Kaindoh.

It's hard to assess just what impact this move will have. Kaindoh entered the draft with a Round 7 grade from nfl.com. Injury-prone, Kaindoh only had 10 career starts in his time at Florida State. He could be another Maxx Crosby. But Crosby had some solid production at Eastern Michigan. Not so, Kaindoh. Reid must have seen something in his game. He passed on Daviyon Nixon, a 313lb DT out of Iowa who was still on the board and has ‘run-stuffer' written all over him.

The final interesting thing to watch will be the extent to which 2019 UDFA gem, Wharton, can challenge a healthy Taco Charlton -€”the Cowboy's first round pick in 2017. Charlton hasn't shown much in his four years in the league and while last year Wharton put up serviceable numbers, a progression this year could see him supplant Charlton in the starting lineup.

Front-four Summary: While the Chiefs may see a few more sacks this year, they've done next to nothing on the d-line to improve their status as the 21st ranked run defense in the league.

We'll turn now, to the LB Room. Listed below are the PFF scores and snaps for last year's LBs and the projected players for next year.

2020

A. Hitchens 50.5 633 snaps

W. Gay Jr. 61.8 275 snaps

B. Niemann 46.5 468 snaps

D. O'Daniel 66.9 10 snaps

D. Wilson 51.8 531 snaps

2021

A. Hitchens

W. Gay Jr.

B. Niemann

D. O'Daniel

N. Bolton

Bolton. Nick Bolton. The Chief's second-round pick at #58 is basically the only move they made this off-season to improve in their run defense. And with the departure of Damien Wilson to the Jags, look for Bolton to see the field early and often. Certainly, replacing that 51.8 performance of Wilson's last year shouldn't be too difficult.

But the Chiefs and Steve Spagnuola have their job cut out for them to get the rookie up to speed. And it might not be that easy. The guy he's replacing, Wilson, stood 6' and weighed in at 245. Bolton stands barely 6' and, depending on which site you believe, weighs somewhere between 232 and 237.

Moreover, there are a few, little warning signs attached to Bolton. Look, I'm not trying to dis the guy. He was a tackling machine at Mizzou, earned first-team, All SEC honors and was mocked by some in the 1st round.

He could be great.

On the flip side, he was actually the fifth LB taken in the draft. Scouting reports indicate there's some concern that while he may be great against the inside run (a moderate assumption), he lacks the lateral quickness to pursue on the outside. And it's not like he's joining an elite linebacking corps that can cover for him and bring him up to speed. The best run defender of the group is actually Gay, who is only moderately good and saw the majority of those 275 snaps on running plays.

Front-Seven Summary: Now, you may be asking yourself, "Why is this guy harping on the run so much when he's only got the Chief's loss to the Raiders in Week 5 and the Buc's win over the Chief's in the Super Bowl to back up his claim this is a big deal?"

Well, let me answer this question with a series of questions which I will of course answer.

First, wanna know how many of the top-10 rushing offenses the Chiefs faced last year?

Answer: 3. The Ravens (ranked #1 rushing offense) The Patriots (ranked #4) and the Saints (ranked #6). They beat the Ravens and Patriots in weeks 3 and 4 by 6 and 16 pts, respectively. Then came their loss to us in week 5. After that, the only top-10 rushing offense they faced were the Saints. They squeaked by with a 32-29 win, even though Brees was just coming off the bench after sitting four weeks with numerous injuries.(And there is reason to believe he was still playing injured in that game.)

Now, wanna know how many top-10 rushing offenses from last year the Chiefs will be facing this year?

Answer: 5. The Browns(ranked #3), the Ravens(ranked #1), the Titans(ranked #2), the Packers and the Eagles. (not to mention, us, twice.) But here's the thing, not only will they be facing more teams with top flight rushing games next season, they're going to be facing three of those teams -€”the Browns, the Ravens and the Eagles- in the first, four games of the season. And the Titans will face them three weeks later. And the Packers come to town just two weeks later. In other words, after week 9(and right before we meet them in week 10) the Chiefs will have faced 5 of the top-10 rushing offenses from last year.

That's why I say Chiefs' fans better hope Reid and Co. can bring Bolton up to speed -€”and quickly!

In Part 3 of this series I'll finish up with a look at the Chief's secondary and present a final summary.