We have all heard of Sabermetrics and its use and impact in sports. Moneyball was a movie that highlighted the use of statistics to drive decisions about players and new ways to think about the game. While I love crunching through data sets to see the zeros and ones within the Matrix, I recognize that relying solely on numbers attribution is a trap. As Mark Twain put it, ""Lies, damned lies, and statistics". In other words, it’s possible to make the numbers dance to your particular bias. With that acknowledged, I found an interesting article on Pythagoras on the Grid Iron referenced here. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2003/pythagoras-gridiron
The part in the article that caught my eye was the following;
Using this equation, we can estimate which teams in the NFL had records better than their points scored and allowed should indicate, and which had records that were worse. Compare the predicted record to the actual record, and we can figure out which teams might be more likely to improve in 2003, and which ones may go downhill.
Using points scored and allowed, I determined each team's projected winning percentage, and compared both a team's real and projected winning percentage to its wins the following season. Teams that under-perform their point differential tend to get better the following year, and teams that over-perform tend to get worse.
Just to clarify, this theory and method places focus on both points scored for and against to determine projected win ratios. Then by comparing to the actual results to projected, you can determine which teams performed above or below expectations. It doesn’t take into account player movement, injuries, coaching changes, etc. However it is useful in predicting trends for say… attempting to determine which teams might increase/decrease win totals the following year or if you were attempting to predict outcomes for a wager. Without going too far into the math, essentially if you take a given teams points scored (PF) and a team’s points allowed (PA), you can calculate projected wins.. (PF) Squared / (PF) squared + (PA) Squared = Projected win percentage * the number of games played.
With all respect due to Raiderdamus, and in tribute to his humorous prose, I am calling this method the "Raiderdamus 2.0" predictor. May his memory live on. I seriously miss his original takes, and fully admit that I am thoroughly outclassed when it comes to the humor we used to get on a weekly basis. Those that remember Raiderdamus’ posts, will remember predictions coupled with wit and playful trash talking (Definitely not my strong suit). So if you are out there reading this Raiderdamus, this one’s for you. A statistical prediction capability, (alas) without the best part…. Satire.
In reviewing all results from 2017-2020, and focusing on predicted differentials greater than 1.25 wins, this theory shows promising results. The first thing to note is that this type of analysis correctly predicted team win percentage results in current year (correct win percentage) or follow on year (above or below differentials) at a 89.59% accuracy rate. In 96 Contests, "Raiderdamus 2.0" correctly predicted 86. 5 were wrong and 5 were no changes (Win totals did not change when predicted to increase/decrease IE; push). And all sadly, without the humor and wit.
Summary Tables-
2017 |
18 |
Teams Played within Percentage in 2017 |
|
9 |
Teams Played Above Expected Average |
||
5 |
Teams Played Below Expected Average |
||
12 |
Correctly Predicted 2018 Results from Deviation |
||
2018 |
18 |
Teams Played within Percentage in 2018 |
|
9 |
Teams Played Above Expected Average |
||
5 |
Teams Played Below Expected Average |
||
9 |
Correctly Predicted 2019 Results from Deviation |
||
2019 |
17 |
Teams Played within Percentage in 2019 |
|
6 |
Teams Played Above Expected Average |
||
9 |
Teams Played Below Expected Average |
||
12 |
Correctly Predicted 2020 Results from Deviation |
||
2020 |
16 |
Teams Played within Percentage in 2020 |
|
9 |
Teams Played Above Expected Average |
||
7 |
Teams Played Below Expected Average |
||
TBD |
Correctly Predicted 2021 Results from Deviation |
Statistically speaking, this is a small sample size, but again is very promising. I was originally going to post full analysis (2017 through 2020), but it turned into an eye bleed, so in the tables below, I am just posting teams that played above or below the 1.5 PT differential. (Does not include teams that played within expected win percentage).
2017 |
|||||||||
Tm |
W |
L |
T |
W-L% |
PF |
PA |
Expected Win Percentage |
Predicted Wins |
Following Year Wins (2018) |
13 |
3 |
0 |
0.813 |
458 |
296 |
0.705 |
11.29 |
minus 2 wins in 2018 |
|
9 |
7 |
0 |
0.563 |
302 |
359 |
0.414 |
6.63 |
minus 3 wins in 2018 |
|
13 |
3 |
0 |
0.813 |
406 |
308 |
0.635 |
10.16 |
minus 4 wins in 2018 |
|
0 |
16 |
0 |
0 |
234 |
410 |
0.246 |
3.93 |
plus 7 wins in 2018 |
|
10 |
6 |
0 |
0.625 |
417 |
268 |
0.708 |
11.32 |
minus 5 wins in 2018 |
|
9 |
7 |
0 |
0.563 |
334 |
356 |
0.468 |
7.49 |
push |
|
4 |
12 |
0 |
0.25 |
338 |
436 |
0.375 |
6.01 |
plus 7 wins in 2018 |
|
13 |
3 |
0 |
0.813 |
457 |
295 |
0.706 |
11.29 |
minus 4 wins in 2018 |
|
3 |
13 |
0 |
0.188 |
246 |
388 |
0.287 |
4.59 |
plus 2 wins in 2018 |
|
13 |
3 |
0 |
0.813 |
382 |
252 |
0.697 |
11.15 |
minus 5 wins in 2018 |
|
5 |
11 |
0 |
0.313 |
264 |
320 |
0.405 |
6.48 |
plus 7 wins in 2018 |
|
11 |
5 |
0 |
0.688 |
363 |
327 |
0.552 |
8.83 |
minus 6 wins in 2018 |
|
5 |
11 |
0 |
0.313 |
335 |
382 |
0.435 |
6.96 |
push |
|
8 |
8 |
0 |
0.5 |
295 |
361 |
0.4 |
6.4 |
minus 5 wins in 2018 |
|
2018 |
|||||||||
Tm |
W |
L |
T |
W-L% |
PF |
PA |
Expected Win Percentage |
Predicted Wins |
Following Year Wins (2019) |
11 |
5 |
0 |
0.688 |
436 |
325 |
0.643 |
10.3 |
Plus 1 win in 2019 |
|
7 |
9 |
0 |
0.438 |
319 |
433 |
0.352 |
5.63 |
Minus 2 wins in 2019 |
|
4 |
12 |
0 |
0.25 |
333 |
441 |
0.363 |
5.81 |
Plus 3 wins in 2019 |
|
11 |
5 |
0 |
0.688 |
402 |
316 |
0.618 |
9.89 |
Minus 1 wins in 2019 |
|
12 |
4 |
0 |
0.75 |
565 |
421 |
0.643 |
10.29 |
push |
|
12 |
4 |
0 |
0.75 |
428 |
329 |
0.629 |
10.06 |
Minus 7 wins in 2019 |
|
6 |
10 |
0 |
0.375 |
329 |
349 |
0.47 |
7.53 |
Plus 1 wins in 2019 |
|
10 |
6 |
0 |
0.625 |
339 |
324 |
0.523 |
8.36 |
Minus 2 wins in 2019 |
|
5 |
11 |
0 |
0.313 |
369 |
412 |
0.445 |
7.12 |
Minus 1 wins in 2019 |
|
6 |
9 |
1 |
0.406 |
376 |
400 |
0.469 |
7.5 |
Plus 7 wins in 2019 |
|
13 |
3 |
0 |
0.813 |
504 |
353 |
0.67 |
10.72 |
push |
|
5 |
11 |
0 |
0.313 |
396 |
464 |
0.421 |
6.74 |
Plus 2 wins in 2019 |
|
13 |
3 |
0 |
0.813 |
527 |
384 |
0.653 |
10.45 |
Minus 4 wins in 2019 |
|
4 |
12 |
0 |
0.25 |
342 |
435 |
0.382 |
6.11 |
Plus 9 wins in 2019 |
|
2019 |
|||||||||
Tm |
W |
L |
T |
W-L% |
PF |
PA |
Expected Win Percentage |
Predicted Wins |
Following Year Wins (2020) |
14 |
2 |
0 |
0.875 |
531 |
282 |
0.78 |
12.48 |
Minus 3 wins in 2020 |
|
2 |
14 |
0 |
0.125 |
279 |
420 |
0.306 |
4.9 |
Plus 2 wins in 2020 |
|
10 |
6 |
0 |
0.625 |
378 |
385 |
0.491 |
7.85 |
Minus 9 wins in 2020 |
|
7 |
9 |
0 |
0.438 |
313 |
419 |
0.358 |
5.73 |
Plus 1 win in 2020 |
|
5 |
11 |
0 |
0.313 |
337 |
345 |
0.488 |
7.81 |
Plus 2 wins in 2020 |
|
Dallas Cowboys |
8 |
8 |
0 |
0.5 |
434 |
321 |
0.646 |
10.34 |
Minus 2 wins in 2020 |
4 |
12 |
0 |
0.25 |
341 |
451 |
0.364 |
5.82 |
Plus 2 wins in 2020 |
|
3 |
13 |
0 |
0.188 |
266 |
435 |
0.272 |
4.35 |
Plus 4 wins in 2020 |
|
13 |
3 |
0 |
0.813 |
376 |
313 |
0.59 |
9.45 |
push |
|
3 |
12 |
1 |
0.219 |
341 |
423 |
0.394 |
6.3 |
Plus 2 wins in 2020 |
|
13 |
3 |
0 |
0.813 |
458 |
341 |
0.643 |
10.29 |
Minus 1 win in 2020 |
|
7 |
9 |
0 |
0.438 |
458 |
449 |
0.51 |
8.16 |
Plus 4 wins in 2020 |
|
13 |
3 |
0 |
0.813 |
479 |
310 |
0.705 |
11.28 |
Minus 7 wins in 2020 |
|
11 |
5 |
0 |
0.688 |
405 |
398 |
0.509 |
8.14 |
Plus 1 win in 2020 |
|
5 |
10 |
1 |
0.344 |
361 |
442 |
0.4 |
6.4 |
Plus 3 wins in 2020 |
|
2020 |
|||||||||
Tm |
W |
L |
T |
W-L% |
PF |
PA |
Expected Win Percentage |
Predicted Wins |
Following Year Wins (2021) |
13 |
3 |
0 |
0.813 |
501 |
375 |
0.64 |
10.24 wins |
|
|
2 |
14 |
0 |
0.125 |
243 |
457 |
0.22 |
3.5 wins |
|
|
12 |
4 |
0 |
0.75 |
416 |
312 |
0.64 |
10.24 wins |
|
|
11 |
5 |
0 |
0.688 |
408 |
419 |
0.487 |
7.79 wins |
|
|
4 |
11 |
1 |
0.281 |
311 |
424 |
0.35 |
5.6 |
|
|
11 |
5 |
0 |
0.688 |
491 |
439 |
0.556 |
8.9 wins |
|
|
11 |
5 |
0 |
0.688 |
451 |
362 |
0.608 |
9.7 |
|
|
4 |
12 |
0 |
0.25 |
384 |
464 |
0.406 |
6.5 |
|
|
1 |
15 |
0 |
0.063 |
306 |
492 |
0.279 |
4.46 |
|
|
14 |
2 |
0 |
0.875 |
473 |
362 |
0.63 |
10 |
|
|
4 |
11 |
1 |
0.281 |
334 |
418 |
0.39 |
6.24 |
|
|
13 |
3 |
0 |
0.813 |
509 |
369 |
0.655 |
10.48 |
|
|
12 |
4 |
0 |
0.75 |
482 |
337 |
0.672 |
10.75 |
|
|
5 |
11 |
0 |
0.313 |
350 |
402 |
0.431 |
6.9 |
|
|
4 |
12 |
0 |
0.25 |
396 |
414 |
0.478 |
7.65 |
|
|
12 |
4 |
0 |
0.75 |
459 |
371 |
0.605 |
9.68 |
|
The 2020 Raiders results fell within the mean for expected wins based upon formulas used. As such, this model does not provide a deviation prediction for the Raiders. So what exactly is the point to all this besides getting some additional data before bets are placed in the upcoming NFL season? Well, I’m glad you asked. 6 of the teams listed above are on the Raiders regular season schedule and 1 of the 6 is a division rival. Raiderdamus 2.0 predicts a step back for the Chiefs this year (Take that 20-0 pipedream you have Mahome’s and stuff it). According to the predictor, the Chiefs 2020 team should have finished at 10 wins +/- 1 (11 wins tops). The Browns should have finished at 8 wins +/-1. Steelers, Browns, and Colts (predicted to be in decline) and should all have less wins in 2021 and this is good news considering the Raiders schedule. Eagles and Bengals should increase their win totals from 2020 making them a tougher out, but the 2021 Raiders should be strong enough to overcome them.
Thus concludes the Statistical Prediction portion of this endeavor ala Raiderdamus 2.0. The remainder is just my two cents based upon expectations for this team after a productive offseason (highlighted in previous fan posts), along with some original quotes from the man himself…
L vs Ravens (11-5 in 2020). The Ravens can be beat when they travel but I’m not sure the Raiders defense will be ready.
"Baltimore thinks it’s hot shit because the Ravens have won two Super Bowls, but they will always be Kinda the Browns and thus utterly forgettable." – Raiderdamus 2018
L @ Steelers (12-4 in 2020). Even adjusting their wins in 2020 ala Raiderdamus, the Steelers are strong at home (7-1 last year).
"The city of Pittsburgh has 446 bridges, just enough to accommodate the mass amounts of people constantly trying to escape the city. I don’t know if they’re trying to get away from the bad food, the ugly women, or Ben Roethlisberger’s penis." - Raiderdamus 2018
L vs Dolphins (10-6 in 2020). This is a Dolphins team that is on the rise. They can be beat if the Raiders defense has it together by week 3.
"In Miami, everything is stuck in the ’80s, the temperature, the age of the residents, and the last time the Dolphins were any good. The only reason Miami gets cool is because they’ve been in New England’s shadow for the last two decades." –Raiderdamus 2020
W @Chargers (7-9 in 2020). This will be a dog fight as the Chargers play the Raiders tough and are stronger at home. I just don’t see the Raiders starting 0-4 for the season.
"It's almost as if the pain of playing for a team as eternally irrelevant as the Chargers caused such strain and stress on the Charger players that their bodies simply give out. And why shouldn't they?" -Raiderdamus 2018
W vs Bears (8-8 in 2020). Tough D and played better on the road in 2020. Still, I think the Raiders have them outmatched.
"Who would win in a fistfight, Hue Jackson or Ditka? Clearly Hue Jackson would win because Buddy Ryan is too old to coach and Ditka can't win anything without him." - Raiderdamus 2011
W @ Broncos (5-11 in 2020) LOL. ‘nough said.
"I saw Elway in a suite at one of the Broncos’ preseason games, and he isn’t looking too good these days. He’s so pale, he looks like Jim Gaffigan after a trip through a haunted house. He looks like if Shooter McGavin had bowling pins for teeth." - Raiderdamus 2019
W vs Eagles (4-11 in 2020). Eagles should improve in 2021, but not enough to beat the Raiders on the road. Eagles were 1-7 on the road last year.
"Dating an Eagles fan lady is easy, because they never expect a ring, and you can disappoint them every year and they’ll keep coming back to you" – Raiderdamus 2017
L @ Giants (6-10 in 2020). Every year the Raiders lose a game that they should have won. Usually on a road trip to the east coast and looking ahead to the KC game.
"The size of the running lanes that New York gives its backs is never wider than the gap between Michael Strahan’s teeth. When Strahan smiles, I don’t know whether to smile back or kick a field goal." –Raiderdamus 2017
W vs Chiefs (14-2 in 2020). The Chiefs will be 11-6 in 2021 and will get bit in this game.
"Depression remains a common theme in Missouri. Only Bryan Adams reminisces about ‘69 more than the Chiefs fans do. Kansas City fans’ main claim to fame is that they are the Loudest Fans in the World, which is a bit like being the Shortest Dwarf or the Drunkest Hooligan."- Raiderdamus 2017
W vs Bengals (4-11 in 2020). The Bengals are better than their record and will be a tough matchup. That said, they were 1-6-1 on the road last year.
"Cincinnati Skyline Chili is an abomination unto God and must be purged from this Earth. It is a work of Satan himself and an affront to God’s gift of taste buds. I haven’t seen a Skyline this tragic since two planes crashed into one." – Raiderdamus 2018
W @ Cowboys (6-10 in 2020). Return of the Dak should equal an improved Cowboys team in 2021. Bad luck for the Cowboys in that their D was as bad as the Raiders last year (What did they do to improve?)
"AT&T Stadium, like its predecessor Texas Stadium, has a large hole in the roof. This is so that God can watch the Cowboys lose. The stadium also has the largest single television screen in the world, so that God can watch the Cowboys lose in high definition. The Cowboys are a lot like the white trash loser who is on food stamps and can’t afford to feed his kids and skims from his cashier job at Wal-Mart to pay for his meth habit, but has a 60" plasma TV and a new pickup truck." – Raiderdamus 2017
W vs WFT (7-9 in 2020) No NFC East team was above .500, but WFT won the division.. so I guess they have that going for them.
"Andrew Jackson did more good for the Native Peoples than Dan Snyder has. The fans leave Fedex Field each week in a trail of tears."- Raiderdamus 2017
L @ Chiefs …. We split.
"But now the Chefs have a quarterback, a legitimate one, a newly minted member of the Rex Grossman Fuck It I’m Going Deep Club, Mr. Air Raid, Patrick Mahomes. He is no jabroni like Thigpen, or Bono, or DeBerg, or Tyler Palko, or Pat Barnes, or Trent Green, or Dave Krieg, or Chase Daniel, or Matt Cassel, or Brodie Croyle, or Damon Huard. Chefs fans may throw these names into the Sea of Unremembrance, but the Great Beyond will not, so kiss my ass." –Raiderdamus 2018
W @Browns (11-5). The Browns played way above expectations last year and return to earth this year.
"However, the Browns' mascot is a bulldog, which really has nothing to do with the color brown, and their helmet is orange, which is also not brown. I understand the team is named after Paul Brown, but for goodness' sakes, make an effort. The Browns' mascot should just be a turd, as it represents the Browns brand succinctly." –Raiderdamus 2014
W vs Broncos … LOL
"A couple years ago, John Elway and the Broncos’ "brain" trust decided that Trevor Siemian was not a viable long-term option, as anyone who watched a game he played in college could have told them. So they drafted Paxton Lynch, who was delighted because now he could get Mile High without any legal repercussions." – Raiderdamus 2017
L @ Colts (11-5 in 2020). They step back in 2021 but are still strong at home.
"In the year 2020, the Indianapolis 500 is no longer a car race, just a parade with Phyllis Rivers and all his kids. The quarterback won’t be bringing his brood to Las Vegas on Sunday. On the bright side, he will have his favorite receiver there: Raiders safety Erik Harris. The Colts may be owned by a total loser like Jim Irsay, but the Raiders own Philip Rivers." – Raiderdamus 2020
W vs Chargers … Chargers were stronger at home, but weaker on the road in 2020.
"In a way, being a Browns fan is better than being a Chargers fan. At least with the Browns, you know what you’re getting yourself into. They call their stadium the Factory of Sadness for a reason. But with the Chargers, they always look good on paper and then they suck in real life. They get their fans’ hopes up every year only to heartlessly dash them, like parents who tell their kids Santa will bring them a puppy for Christmas, only to tell the kids on Christmas Eve that Santa isn’t real and neither is that farm upstate they supposedly send Ol’ Duke to last spring." –Raiderdamus 2018
Final Raiders Season 2021 prediction…. 11-6
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