The Football Outsiders have released their production projections for all NFL teams and they have some interesting projections for the Las Vegas Raiders.
Per Josh Dubow of the Associated Press, the Football Outsiders’ projections don’t seem wildly productive for the Raiders’ key players — especially considering that the NFL will play 17 games and not 16, in 2021.
Here are some #Raiders projections for 2021 from @fboutsiders KUBIAK system:— Josh Dubow (@JoshDubowAP) July 1, 2021
Derek Carr: 4366 yds, 26.3 TDs, 10 INTs, 10.2 fumbles
Josh Jacobs: 928 yds, 3.98 ypc, 9.2 TDs
Henry Ruggs: 42-661 4 TDs
Darren Waller: 89-1003 7.7 TDs
Defense: 29 sacks, 18.3 takeaways
Las Vegas quarterback Derek Carr threw for 4,103 yards and 27 touchdowns with nine interceptions in 2020. So they don’t see him improving much. But still, it would be another solid, if not spectacular season, by the Raiders’ eighth-year quarterback.
Josh Jacobs racked up 1,065 yards, averaged 3.9 yards a carry and had 12 scores last season. Remember, the Raiders signed Kenyan Drake, so Football Outsiders may be projecting less opportunities for Jacobs. But as long as he is fresh and productive, it won’t matter if his numbers dip some with Drake on board.
The numbers by Waller are somewhat surprising. He had 107 catches last season and had 197 catches combined in the past two seasons, which is the second most by a tight end behind Kansas City’s Travis Kelce. I see Waller getting more than 89 receptions in 2021.
Football Outsiders has 2020 first-round pick Henry Ruggs III making some improvements from his 26 catches as a rookie. However, the Raiders want to see Ruggs make more of an impact than what is being projected.
The defensive projections would be near the bottom of the league based on last year’s numbers. But, the Raiders will take any improvement they can get on that side of the ball.
What should we make of these projections? Not much. It’s just educated speculation, but it’s always fun to dissect.