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Breaking down Raiders’ yardage projections

Big numbers are expected

Los Angeles Chargers v Las Vegas Raiders
Darren Waller
Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images

As we get closer to the NFL season, the fantasy projections are pouring in. Recently, Pro Football Focus revealed its 2022 yardage projections for some key Las Vegas Raiders.

Let’s check them out:

Derek Carr

Projected 2022 Passing yards:

4,375 yards

His career high:

4,804 yards in 2021.

My thoughts:

I have a difficult time thinking Carr’s yardage production will dip more than 400 yards with Davante Adams now on the team. Yes, Carr shattered his career yardage record last year (it was the first time the NFL played 17 games in the regular season). But I don’t see Carr’s 2021 passing yardage as an outlier. I’d be surprised (and the team and fans should be disappointed) if Carr is healthy all season and he doesn’t throw, at least, 4,600 yards this season.

Las Vegas Raiders Mandatory Minicamp
Davante Adams
Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Davante Adams

Projected 2022 receiving yards:

1,238

His career high:

1,553 in 2021.

My thoughts:

Adams is the new centerpiece of this offense. The passing game will run through him. Since Carr became the Raiders’ quarterback in 2014, the season receiving yardage leader by a wide receiver was 1,153 by Amari Cooper in 2016. Adams, who has already built a chemistry with Carr when they were college teammates, surpassed Cooper’s 2016 yardage total three of the past four seasons. I’d think PFF’s projections for Adams in 2022 is based on the Raiders having other strong receiving options. He was the main option (by far) with the Green Bay Packers. Still, the Raiders gave up a lot for Adams and they’re paying him big. He’s here to be used. So, I think 1,238 yards is somewhat a low projection. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t break the 1,300 yard mark.

Darren Waller

Projected 2022 receiving yards:

809.

His career high:

1,196 yards in 2020.

My thoughts:

PFF projects that Waller will take a production hit with Adams now on the team. He had 655 receiving yards last year, but he missed six games. He averaged 59.5 receiving yards a game last year. He averaged 74.7 yards a game in his career year in 2020. It will certainly be interesting to see what Waller produces with Adams on the field. I don’t think it’s going to go down that much. New Las Vegas coach Josh McDaniels loves using his tight ends and he is a master at the matchup game. Waller will be a big part of it. While Waller is no longer the Raiders’ No. 1 receiving target, he’s still an elite receiving option. I’d expect him to surpass this PFF 2022 projection by 150-200 yards, at least.

Los Angeles Chargers v Las Vegas Raiders
Hunter Renfrow
Photo by Steve Marcus/Getty Images

Hunter Renfrow

Projected 2022 receiving yards:

857

His career high:

1,038 in 2021.

My thoughts:

Like Waller, PFF expects Renfrow’s production to dip this year He was the the Raiders’ go-to option with Waller often hurt and the roster flux at the other receiver spots. With Adams on the field, Renfrow’s production may dip some but he is still a Carr favorite and the two have a great feel for each other. That’s not going to change. Third and Renfrow (who the Raiders showed how much they value by giving him a new contract this offseason) is still going to be a thing in 2022. Honestly, his projection is tough to figure. But I still see him being a big part of this offense.