FanPost

Why a Carr trade won't happen

Many in here and in the Raiders media believe Carr can be traded despite his no-trade clause and a $40M guarantee that kicks in Feb.15

Ain't Happenin', here's why..

Carr's contract is overvalued

3 years left on his deal will pay him an average of $40.5M per season, 7th highest in the NFL. Carr is at best a mid-tier QB that has a career losing record worse than any 'franchise QB' in history. Throw in $40M guaranteed on top of that simply makes the contract untenable. Any team that acquires Carr is going to want less risk, especially considering his regression and history of struggling to learn new systems. He'll only get a prove-it deal low in guarantees, high in incentives.

Carr can only play for good weather teams

Every GM in the NFL knows Carr is not a bad-weather QB. Career 0-7 in games at or under 37 degrees. On top of that he leads the NFL in fumbles since he came into the league. Ball security is a real issue, only worsened in bad weather. This severely limits what teams he can go to. It pretty much has to be a team in the AFC/NFC south or NFC west.

QB needy teams, that Carr could go to, might not even be in his market

Houston - In year 2 of a rebuild with #2 pick. They are taking QB in the draft. Plus Carr is not an exactly welcomed name in Houston.

Indy - Good place for Carr. They currently only have $20M in cap space so without maneuvering they can't assume his contract ($33M against the cap in 2023). On top of that they have the #4 pick where they certainly will take one of the top 3 QBs. They could potentially still sign Carr as a FA however, but only a much cheaper contract.

Saints - Ideal spot for Carr, reunites with Dennis Allen, dome team. They have *massive* cap issues, worst in the NFL currently $52M over the cap. Going to go through a mini-rebuild just to shed all the big contracts. They might have enough to give Carr a cheap prove-it deal - but forget about assuming his current contract.

Carolina - Another good spot. But just like New Orleans, they have cap issues - currently $5M over the cap. Again they might sign Carr as a FA on a cheap contract but they cannot assume his current deal. And they hold the #9 overall pick in the draft.

Tampa Bay - Assuming Brady leaves, another good spot for Carr. But just like the previous two teams -they have major cap issues - currently $43M over the cap, 2nd only to the Saints. If Brady walks, that team is getting a full rebuild. No way they bring Carr in on a top 10 contract.

Seattle - Kind of a cold weather team but not as bad as east coast - but they do have the cap space. But Geno Smith had a career best season and will certainly return. And they have the #5 draft pick. This equals zero interest in trading for Carr.

Miami - If Tua retires from concussions they'll be in the QB market. But again, cap issues, $7M over the cap. Might sign Carr as a FA on a cheap deal but not trading for his current deal.

Every single team that would be a realistic landing spot for Carr either has major cap issues and/or high draft picks. They still might be interested in signing Carr, but no way are they trading for his contract. The only other teams with cap space, QB needs, and not picking high in the draft are cold weather teams, ag: Commanders. Would they trade for Carr? Maybe but I highly doubt it.

Too many FA QB's coming on the market

Tom Brady, Jimmy G, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, Teddy B, Jacoby Brissett, Mike White, Andy Dalton, Drew Lock, Case Keenum, Jarett Stidham and many more.

You could argue that Carr is 'better' than some of these names, but he's not demonstrably better. Certainly not $40M guaranteed (and draft picks to acquire) better. Because there are so many FA's coming on to the market, teams are going to have plenty of options to shop around, have tryouts/visits, etc before committing. They're certainly not going to hamstring themselves one month *before FA* to trade picks for a top 10 contract for a middle-tier starter -when there are so many other options out there to consider.

Conclusion

It's clear that there are few, if any, paths to trade Carr. The size of the contract, guarantee, the timing and limited market for Carr makes it impossible to trade him. Even if he waived his no-trade clause *and* forfeited the guarantee, which no agent would allow, the contract is #7 in value which is way too high especially with better options out there.

The *only* way a trade could happen is if Carr rescinded his no-trade clause, his $40M guarantee *and* be willing to sign a new contract with the team that trade for him. But the question then becomes, why would he do that? Certainly his agent knows he is better off being released and go to a team of his choosing. And after his 'take my ball and go home' stunt he pulled, and sending his brother out to attack the Raiders? Thinking he's going to do the Raiders any favors by declining all guarantees and letting the Raider decide his fate is foolish.

99% chance Carr is released on Feb 15 and both parties go their separate ways. He'll go the market March 15 like the rest of the FA's. Likewise, he'll go through the visitation process and will sign a low risk prove-it deal with his next team.

Raiders in turn will have several options in FA and the draft to find the next starter.

It's a pretty good year to be in the QB market, perhaps that was the plan all along.