Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs's contract dispute is one of the biggest stories heading into training camp. The cryptic tweets from Jacobs himself have left fans wondering if he will hold out from training camp.
Jacobs is coming off a career year with over 2000 yards from scrimmage. He has become one of the best running backs in football, solidifying himself as a three-down back the past two seasons.
With these types of numbers, Jacobs is expected to go early in fantasy drafts. ESPN's Mike Clay believes the outlook for Jacobs's 2023 season could see regression from the former All-Pro. Jacobs passed the 300 attempts mark in 2022, and Clay laid out why that could be a cause for concern.
Consider: Since 2011, 20 RBs carried the ball 300-plus times in a single season and played the following season. Those 20 backs averaged 15.9 games played, 325.9 carries, 1,559.7 rushing yards, 11.9 rush TDs and 19.1 fantasy PPG during their 300-plus-carry seasons. Those numbers fell to 12.5 games played, 226.7 carries, 982.1 rushing yards, 6.9 rush TDs and 15.3 fantasy PPG the following season. All 20 RBs finished top 12 in fantasy points in the first season (17 were top five), but only eight finished top 12 the second season (four were top five). In total, the 20 RBs scored 6,040 fantasy points the first season but 3,830 the following year.
300 carries have been a threshold for regression, but there are instances, such as Derrick Henry, where this was duplicated. Jacobs will also have something to prove, with him likely playing under the franchise tag and no long-term deal.
The odds might be against the Raiders' star running back, but he has dealt with adversity.
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