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Raiders Super Bowl odds remain stagnant through offseason

Study looks at opening odds vs 3/20 and 5/1

Las Vegas Raiders Announce Allegiant Stadium To Host Super Bowl LVIII
Allegiant Stadium
Photo by David Becker/Getty Images

As training camp approaches across the NFL, one thing is for certain about Super Bowl 58. It will be played in the Las Vegas Raiders’ home, Allegiant Stadium. Whether or not the Raiders will be participants is of course a big question that won’t be definitively answered for several months, however, Las Vegas’ hopes are looking pretty bleak.

SB Nation’s Head of Sports Betting Content David Fucillo recently conducted a study where he looked at every team’s Super Bowl odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Fucillo was tracking how the lines have changed over the last several months, charting each team’s opening odds, where they stood a week into free agency on March 20 and after the draft on May 1.

Specifically looking at the Raiders, their odds haven’t changed much.

Results of Fucillo’s Super Bowl odds study.
Super Bowl odds via DraftKings Sportbook
David Fucillo, SB Nation/Vox Media

The Silver and Black opened as a 51 to 1 bet and then their odds increased slightly to 41 to 1 after wheeling and dealing on the open market. That’s where the line stopped as the Raiders didn’t see any movement after the draft. This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise.

The team’s big free agent signings were quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and wide receiver Jakobi Meyers as those two moved the needle a little bit, but not enough for a dramatic swing. Also, Las Vegas didn’t do much to fix the offensive line nor did they add a true difference-maker on defense, two of the team’s biggest needs heading into the offseason.

During the draft, the Raiders added defensive lineman Tyree Wilson with their top 10 selection. Wilson has the potential to become a good player down the line, but he likely won’t start as a rookie with Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones ahead of him on the depth chart. That minimizes the Texas Tech product’s year-one impact and explains the inactivity on the team’s Super Bowl 58 line.

Right now, it’s looking like tight end Michael Mayer could be the only Week 1 starter from Las Vegas’ 2023 draft class. But the club also lost two tight ends in the offseason by trading Darren Waller to the New York Giants and Foster Moreau signing with the New Orleans Saints in free agency.

To a certain degree, Mayer will have two pairs of shoes to fill—one being a former Pro Bowler’s—and the Raiders drafted wide receiver Tre Tucker with the pick they gained in the Waller trade. At best, Tucker will be the offense’s fourth receiver this season.

So, with a draft class that appears to only bring in one early-season starter, it makes even more sense why the team’s championship odds remained stagnant from the end of March to the beginning of May.

Below are a few other notes/observations from Fucillo’s findings.

  • The Broncos are pulling away from the Raiders. Denver opened at 41 to 1 and then dropped down to 26 to 1 during free agency, and stayed there after the draft. So, their odds increased by 15 points compared to just 10 for Las Vegas. The Broncos also pulled even with the Chargers, whose odds haven’t changed since the betting lines opened.
  • Oddsmakers are calling for a Chiefs repeat. Every step of the way, Kansas City has either been tied for the best odds or held that distinction on its own. They opened at 6.5 to 1, the same as the Bills, but Buffalo dropped to 9.5 to 1 during the offseason while the defending champs only lost half a point. The 49ers are the next-closest team at 8 to 1, so we could be in for a Super Bowl LIV rematch.
  • DraftKings is a big fan of Howie Roseman. The Eagles opened as an 11 to 1 bet, then dropped to 9.5 to 1 during free agency and picked up another point after the draft. That’s some respect for the general manager as DK clearly liked the moves he made.
  • Houston, you have a problem. The Texans opened with terrible odds, 101 to 1, and the number nearly doubled as they currently are tied for the worst odds at 202 to 1. Who are they tied with? Arizona, which owns Houston’s first-round pick this year...